European Elections Under Siege: How the Iran War Fuels the Far Right’s Surge
As polling stations open across Britain today, millions of voters are casting ballots in what could prove a seismic shake-up of the political landscape. Local elections in England and parliamentary contests in Wales and Scotland are underway, but the real drama lurks in the broader European context. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government faces a brutal reckoning, with analysts predicting catastrophic losses that might erode three-quarters of their seats. Fueling this discontent is the right-wing populist party Reform UK, poised to claim the highest overall vote share according to recent projections. This shift mirrors a wave of discontent crashing across the continent, where economic turmoil ignited by the ongoing war in Iran is emboldening nationalist forces and testing the resilience of centrist governments.
The discontent isn’t isolated to the UK. Across Europe, voters are signaling a profound disillusionment with mainstream politics. In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats is grappling with historic lows in approval ratings, while France’s Emmanuel Macron contends with similar malaise. Yet, as Stephanie Siriwardane reported in a recent dispatch, the war in Iran—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes—has amplified these frustrations, creating an economic maelstrom that punishes incumbent regimes. Inflation has spiked, energy costs have soared, and growth forecasts dimmed, leaving ordinary Europeans scrambling amidst protests that echo from Dublin to Nairobi. This isn’t just economic hardship; it’s a catalyst for political upheaval, where far-right parties like Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) are exploiting the chaos to position themselves as the authentic voice of the people.
My recent trip to Germany illuminated the extent of this transformation. In conversations with officials, journalists, and even AfD leaders, I sensed a palpable shift from just months ago. Where once the AfD was a fringe element, now it’s openly discussed as a potential coalition partner—or even outright commander-in-chief—after the next federal elections. Polls back this up: AfD leads with a commanding 26 to 28 percent share, eclipsing the Christian Democrats at 22 to 24 percent and dwarfing the Social Democrats. This surge isn’t accidental; it’s the culmination of years of rising populist sentiment, exacerbated by Merz’s administration stumbling on infrastructure, growth, and now the Iran war’s fallout. With energy prices ballooning and inflation eroding purchasing power, the AfD’s messaging resonates, framing centrist policies as elitist concessions to foreigners and obsolete frameworks that fail to shield native interests.
At the heart of this phenomenon is what some experts call “crisis entrepreneurship.” In an insightful interview with Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations and author of “Surviving Chaos,” he unpacked how far-right parties thrive amid turmoil. They don’t just react to crises—they weaponize them, Leonard explained, by portraying mainstream incumbents as inept custodians of national sovereignty. “These parties build legitimacy by highlighting how traditional leaders are overwhelmed, unable to steer the ship,” he noted. This playbook allows populists to argue that governments are skewed against ordinary citizens, favoring special interests or global agendas over domestic welfare. For Europe’s right-wing factions, the Iran war is a golden opportunity, mirroring tactics perfected during the eurozone debt crisis and the 2015 migrant wave.
The AfD exemplifies this strategy with unsettling precision. Born from the euro backlash in the early 2010s, the party morphed during the migrant crisis into a staunch anti-immigration force, decrying open-door policies as betrayals of German identity. The pandemic further sharpened their edge, as they championed vaccine skepticism as a defense of personal liberties against bureaucratic overreach. Now, the war-driven energy crunch is their latest proving ground. Leonard pointed out how the AfD seizes these moments to critique centrist energy strategies—such as Germany’s phasing out of nuclear power and reliance on renewables—as out-of-touch and ineffective. “For them, this is manna from heaven,” he quipped, underscoring how the war exposes alleged government failures, pushing voters toward alternatives that promise decisive, nationalist solutions. This isn’t mere opportunism; it’s a calculated narrative that frames economic pain as a symptom of global entanglements gone wrong.
Looking ahead, the implications stretch beyond today’s votes. While Britain and Germany won’t face national ballots until at least 2029—if their governments endure that long—the next European flashpoint is France’s presidential race next April, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally could capitalize on similar discontent. Notably, the Iran war offers Europe’s populists a strategic buffer against the “Trump problem.” Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024 initially buoyed far-right spirits across the Atlantic, but his unorthodox policies—like tariffs and quirky proposals—soon alienated European voters wary of transatlantic instability. Paradoxically, the unpopularity of the Iran conflict, which emanates from Trump’s heavy-handed approach, is allowing nationalists to pivot: they can criticize U.S. involvement while harnessing the war’s domestic fallout for their own gain. As one AfD insider told me off the record, “What hurts the center strengthens us—it’s our moment to reclaim Europe.” With incumbents like Starmer’s Labour bracing for defeat and Merz’s firewall against AfD eroding in states like Saxony-Anhalt, this election cycle heralds a continent teetering on the edge of transformation. The Iran war isn’t just reshaping geopolitics; it’s rewriting Europe’s political playbook, one ballot at a time.
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