Bitcoin Flips a Crucial Level, and PlanB Says the Bear Market Is Behind Us
Bitcoin has once again found a reason to make headlines, and this time the story is about the slow, methodical work of technical recovery. Pseudonymous analyst PlanB, best known for the stock-to-flow model that links Bitcoin’s price to scarcity, offered a direct and characteristically confident observation: Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average, a level currently hovering around $79,000. At the time of his assessment, BTC was trading near $81,000, which is a meaningful amount of ground above that benchmark. For those unfamiliar with the term, a moving average is simply the average price over a specific window of time. The 50-week moving average smooths out roughly a year of daily fluctuations and gives traders a read on the longer arc of the market. Closing above such a level matters because it suggests that the recent rally is not just a sudden pop but part of a larger shift in momentum. PlanB followed that observation with a second, more ambitious marker: the next technical target is the 100-week moving average, which sits around $89,000. This is a significant distance away from the current price but still within the realm of what a sustained uptrend could achieve. The fact that PlanB is looking at long-term averages, rather than day-to-day candles, indicates that he is trying to assess the health of the cycle as a whole. In a market that spent much of the previous two years wrestling with deep corrections, this is a notable shift in tone. More importantly, it signals that the debate has moved from “have we bottomed?” to “how far can the next move go?” There is still plenty of room for skepticism, especially in a market as volatile as crypto, but price levels like the 50-week moving average function as useful checkpoints. When an asset holds above a long-term average, it tends to attract a different kind of buyer: investors who were waiting for confirmation that the trend had truly changed. That is why PlanB’s comment felt like more than just a chart observation. It was a reflection of a broader sentiment change that had been quietly building in the background.
To understand why PlanB’s latest statement matters, it helps to know a little more about the way he views the market. PlanB, who has never revealed his real identity, built his reputation on the stock-to-flow model, which argues that Bitcoin’s price is heavily influenced by its scarcity and the halving events that cut new supply. That model made bold predictions in the past, and while some of them were wrong, it remains one of the most widely discussed frameworks in the crypto community. In this latest assessment, however, he was not relying on scarcity alone. He was pointing at technical indicators that traders use to gauge market structure. The distinction between the 50-week and 100-week moving averages is crucial because it helps define the battle lines. The 50-week average is a short-term proxy for the annual trend; the 100-week average reaches back even further. When price is above the first but below the second, the market is in transition. It has healed some of the damage from the bear market but still has not reclaimed the heights of the previous bull run. If Bitcoin can break above that 100-week level, it would signal a more complete restoration of confidence. PlanB’s use of the word “target” is important. He did not say that Bitcoin would immediately rally to $89,000. He said that the 100-week moving average is the next point of reference, a line that could act as a magnet and a potential resistance level. Technical analysts often describe these levels as zones where the market tends to slow down and rethink. If Bitcoin approaches $89,000, there will almost certainly be sellers who bought during the last bull market and have been waiting for a chance to exit at break-even or better. But there will also be buyers who see the approach as a sign that the cycle is turning. That is what makes the next phase so interesting. It will reveal the true balance between fear and greed. Moreover, moving averages are widely followed enough that they can become self-fulfilling. If enough traders treat the 100-week moving average as a significant level, their collective behavior can help make it significant. PlanB, with his large audience, is one of the voices shaping that behavior. His signal may not be the only one on the chart, but it amplifies the technical narrative.
PlanB’s broader claim is where the analysis gets even more intriguing. He stated that the bear market in Bitcoin has ended. That phrase, on its own, is likely to spark plenty of debate. The crypto market has a history of making sudden U-turns, and there are always analysts who argue that declaring the end of a bear market too early is a mistake. But PlanB did not base that conclusion on a single price spike. He pointed to a cluster of indicators that have started to shift in favor of the bulls. First, he noted that August closed at $78,571. That is an important observation because monthly closes are often viewed as more significant than daily closes. A monthly candle has more weight; it represents the consensus of the entire month and filters out a lot of intraday noise. Closing at that level above the 50-week moving average suggests that the market was able to hold its gains through a full monthly cycle. Second, he pointed out that the percentage of Bitcoin supply in a profitable state has climbed from 50% to 72%. This metric is a snapshot of the overall health of the market. When a coin is said to be “in profit,” it means that the last time it moved on-chain, the price was lower than it is today. At the depths of the bear market, many millions of coins were effectively underwater. Now, roughly three out of every four Bitcoins are held by people who have an unrealized gain. That shift has a profound effect on market psychology. Investors who were worried about selling at a loss are now holding with a cushion of profit and are less likely to panic. It also means that the average holder has a stronger incentive to support the price. Of course, there is a counterargument: more profit can also lead to more profit-taking. But in the context of a recovering market, the movement from 50% to 72% is generally viewed as a positive sign.
The third signal PlanB highlighted is the monthly Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which moved from 41 to 51. For people who are new to technical analysis, RSI can sound intimidating, but the concept is fairly straightforward. The RSI measures how fast and how strongly prices are moving. It puts momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 typically suggesting that an asset is overbought and readings below 30 suggesting that it is oversold. The zone in the middle is often seen as neutral territory. A move from 41 to 51 might not seem dramatic, but crossing the 50 line is a subtle rite of passage. In simple terms, it means that positive price movements have begun to outpace negative ones over the measured period. For PlanB, this is evidence that the market’s engine is running more smoothly. The monthly RSI, in particular, is useful because it filters out the kind of noise that short-term traders obsess over. It tells a longer story, one that is more relevant to investors trying to understand the cycle rather than to traders looking for quick gains. The fact that the monthly RSI is now above 50 supports the idea that Bitcoin’s bottom is behind it. The market does not need to be overheating. It just needs to be moving in the right direction, and the RSI trend suggests that it is. When this indicator is combined with the profitable supply metric and the position above the 50-week moving average, a clearer picture starts to emerge. PlanB’s argument is not that Bitcoin will go up in a straight line. It is that the underlying conditions have changed enough to justify a shift in outlook.
Of course, no serious analysis of Bitcoin is complete without a healthy amount of caution. Moving averages, by their very nature, are lagging indicators. They tell you where the market has been, not exactly where it is going. The RSI can stay stuck in one zone for months. And the broader macroeconomic environment remains a wildcard. Interest rates, regulatory decisions, and the flow of capital into exchange-traded products all have a say in where Bitcoin goes next. PlanB’s stock-to-flow model came under fire during the 2022 downturn, when Bitcoin’s price fell far below the levels that the model had predicted. That episode is a reminder that no single framework has all the answers. But technical analysis does not need to be perfect to be useful. What PlanB is offering is a relatively simple set of markers that investors can use to evaluate the market’s health. The close above the 50-week moving average is a sign of structure. The rise in profitable supply is a sign of healing. The RSI moving above 50 is a sign of momentum. When those three things line up, it is a meaningful development. It does not guarantee that Bitcoin will immediately rally to $89,000, nor does it predict the future with certainty. What it does is provide a rational basis for optimism. In a market that often runs on emotion, that is valuable. It gives traders a framework for interpreting what they see on the charts and for making decisions that are not just driven by fear. The next few weeks will be an important test. If Bitcoin can defend the 50-week moving average and begin to press toward the 100-week average, then PlanB’s assessment will look increasingly accurate. If it falls below those levels, then the narrative will have to change.
So what should readers take away from all of this? First, the technical picture for Bitcoin has genuinely improved. The move above the 50-week moving average, the increase in profitable supply, and the RSI crossing 50 are all signs that point in the same direction. PlanB’s statement that the bear market is over is bold, but it is based on a collection of data points that are difficult to dismiss. Second, the next big level to watch is the 100-week moving average near $89,000. It is not a magical number, but it is a significant one. If Bitcoin reaches that level, it will mark a milestone in the market’s recovery from the bear phase. If it fails to reach it, the market may enter a lengthy consolidation. Third, and perhaps most importantly, none of this is investment advice. PlanB himself was careful to include that warning, and it is worth remembering. The crypto market is notoriously volatile, and even the most convincing technical setups can fall apart in the face of unexpected news. Investors should treat this analysis as one input among many. Risk management, diversification, and a clear-headed understanding of one’s own financial goals should always come first. That being said, the mood in the market has changed. Bitcoin is no longer the asset that traders are afraid to touch. It is an asset that is starting to look like it has a future again. The road ahead will not be straight, but the direction is becoming clearer. For now, the bulls have the technical edge, and the next stop on the map is $89,000.
