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Despite the resignation of one cabinet minister and demands from almost a quarter of Labour Party lawmakers that he stand aside, Britain’s beleaguered prime minister, Keir Starmer, remains in Downing Street.
The question is for how long.
When Wes Streeting quit as health secretary on Thursday, he was scathing about Mr. Starmer, but he did not trigger an immediate leadership contest. That suggested he had not gathered the requisite support of 81 Labour lawmakers.
On Saturday, Mr. Streeting confirmed that he intended to compete in a leadership contest if and when one was triggered. That may not happen for several weeks, however.
“We need a proper contest, with the best candidates on the field, and I’ll be standing,” he said to loud applause in an appearance at a left-leaning British think tank.
His remarks about the best candidates on the field was almost certainly a reference to Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester.
A former minister who has not been part of Mr. Starmer’s accident-prone government, Mr. Burnham is the only Labour politician significantly more popular than the prime minister, polls suggest. He also outperforms Nigel Farage, an ally of President Trump’s and the leader of the right-wing populist Reform U.K. party, which is considered a serious threat to Labour after a recent set of elections.
But Mr. Burnham needs a seat in Parliament before he can fight for the leadership of his party and the country. On Thursday, a potential slot was found when a Labour lawmaker representing Makerfield, a district in northwest England, promised to resign. Mr. Burnham announced plans to fight for the seat in a special election.
What happens next?
Mr. Burnham can run, but the timetable hasn’t been set.
The party’s governing National Executive Committee — which includes Mr. Starmer — on Friday approved Mr. Burnham’s request to run in Makerfield.
This year, it blocked him from running in a special election in another northern seat, saying he should not quit as the mayor of Greater Manchester because there would have to be an election to replace him. Many political analysts argued the real reason was that Mr. Starmer saw him as a threat, and several Labour Party figures have called the decision a mistake.
Mr. Burnham now needs to be selected by Labour activists locally.
Next, the government must set the special election. Given the preparation time needed, the earliest likely dates are June 18 or June 25.
Can Mr. Burnham beat Reform U.K. in a special election?
Assuming Mr. Burnham runs, this promises to be one of the most important and closely watched special parliamentary elections in decades.
Makerfield has voted for Labour lawmakers for decades. But the area is now heavily targeted by Reform, which came second there in the 2024 general election, only around 5,000 votes behind Labour.
And in recent local elections, Mr. Farage’s party secured more than half of all votes cast in Makerfield, according to the Manchester Evening News, while Labour won 23 percent. The party will most likely try to galvanize supporters of Brexit — for which Mr. Farage campaigned — by pointing to Mr. Burnham’s pro-European politics. Mr. Farage has promised that Reform would “throw absolutely everything” at the vote.
Precisely because running in Makerfield would be high risk for Mr. Burnham, it could also be high reward. Victory would prove that he could help Labour defeat Reform, which has led every national opinion poll for more than a year.
If Mr. Burnham wins in Makerfield, then what?
If he returns to Parliament, Mr. Burnham would be the favorite to succeed Mr. Starmer. Mr. Burnham’s northern roots may appeal to voters in the north and middle of England, some of whom are switching to Mr. Farage’s party. He is also seen as being to the left of Mr. Starmer. That could equip him to confront the challenge from Labour’s left flank, where the Green Party has won over disenchanted progressive voters.
Courting left-leaning voters could bring economic risk, however. Although Mr. Burnham has not yet laid out an economic strategy, some investors are betting that under his potential leadership, government borrowing could increase to spend more on public services, at the expense of lowering the country’s debt burden. Last year, Mr. Burnham said that Britain had to get beyond being “in hock” to the bond market.
Britain’s government bonds dropped on Friday morning, raising the country’s borrowing costs as investors responded to the prospect of Mr. Burnham replacing Mr. Starmer.
If there is a leadership election, its timetable would be decided by Labour’s National Executive Committee. Party members and trade union supporters would take part in the election using a preferential vote system. The last contest took around six weeks.
What happens if Mr. Burnham loses to Reform U.K.?
A defeat in Makerfield would be a serious blow to Labour, suggesting that even its most popular politician could not beat Reform.
Mr. Starmer’s short-term prospects of survival, however, might improve. For now, the prime minister insists that he is not going anywhere. With wars underway in the Middle East and Ukraine, the last thing Britain needs is domestic political turmoil, he argues.
However, Mr. Streeting, a standard-bearer from the party’s right, might eventually muster the support for a challenge. Others who could try to spark a contest include Angela Rayner, a former deputy prime minister, who has resolved a tax issue over which she resigned from the government last year, and Ed Miliband, the energy secretary and former party leader.
Eshe Nelson contributed reporting.
