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New Vegas betting odds heavily favor former Biden Cabinet official Xavier Becerra in California’s crowded governor’s race — and it’s not even close.
Prediction market Polymarket currently gives Becerra a commanding 52% chance of winning the 2026 gubernatorial contest, far outpacing his nearest rival, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, who trails at around 32%.
The sharp divide underscores just how dramatically Becerra has surged from early uncertainty to become the race’s dominant frontrunner.
The Polymarket odds Sunday night went as follows:
Becerra 52%
Steyer 32%
Hilton 9%
Bianco 3%
Porter 2%
Mahan 1%
The latest odds mark a major boost for the former Health and Human Services secretary, whose campaign has gained steam as California’s June primary nears.
Becerra, who also served in the California state legislature before becoming attorney general, had struggled to gain traction until the spectacular implosion of ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign this month following allegations of sexual assault.
Polls conducted after Swalwell’s career implosion showed Becerra skyrocketing near the top of voter surveys.
His rise comes after weeks of political momentum, with recent polling and betting markets increasingly positioning him as the clear favorite to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom in deep-blue California.
While Republican Steve Hilton and other challengers remain in the broader field, Polymarket traders appear overwhelmingly convinced Becerra has emerged as the candidate to beat.
The prediction platform, which has generated more than $22 million in trading volume on the California governor’s race, reflects growing confidence from political bettors who increasingly see Becerra as the safest wager in one of the nation’s highest-profile gubernatorial contests.
Though political markets can shift rapidly, Becerra’s commanding lead signals just how far ahead he currently stands in the battle for Sacramento—with Vegas-style odds painting a picture of a race that, for now, looks firmly in his favor.
Critics, however, have called out Becerra’s tumultuous tenure as Health and Human Services chief — when he was ripped for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and a crisis in which the agency lost contact with 85,000 migrant children.
He’s also been dinged for his ties to a Sacramento corruption scandal involving his former aide, Sean McCluskie, who pleaded guilty to his role in an alleged scheme to skim funds from a dormant campaign account for a “no-show” job for his wife.
Becerra has not been accused of wrongdoing and has denied knowledge of the alleged activity.
