It’s a familiar feeling in the run-up to any election: the knot in your stomach when you open your wallet and wonder why everything costs so much, and the simmering frustration that the people in charge just don’t seem to get it. As voters across the country prepare to cast their ballots, that mood of economic dread and political discontent is not just a whisper — it’s a roar. A new Fox News Poll captures this moment with striking clarity, painting a picture of an electorate that is tired, anxious, and leaning toward punishing the party in power. The numbers tell a story of a nation feeling the squeeze, disapproving of its leaders, and looking for change, even if they aren’t sure any change will come.
The most pressing issue on every voter’s mind is plain and simple: the cost of living. Six in ten voters say that prices are their top economic worry, far surpassing concerns about government spending, jobs, or income inequality. This is not an abstract debate about macroeconomic theory; it’s about the reality of filling a gas tank, buying groceries, or renting an apartment. A staggering 74% of voters rate the economy negatively, and 53% believe it will only get worse by this time next year. These are numbers that should make any incumbent party nervous, and they explain why two-thirds of voters express dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. Perhaps most telling is that only 18% of voters say their family is better off today than it was two years ago. That sentiment is especially acute among independents, 52% of whom say they are worse off and 70% of whom expect the economy to degrade further. When people feel they are slipping backwards, they tend to lash out at whoever holds power.
Inflation, of course, is the monster under the bed. A majority of voters — 55% — say inflation is “not at all” under control, the highest number in a year. That includes 30% of Republicans, which shows that even those who usually support the administration are feeling the pain. And when they look at President Donald Trump, they give him his worst marks on this exact issue. Only 22% approve of his handling of inflation, a new low that has fallen sharply from 36% last summer. His overall job approval rating now stands at 36%, the lowest it has ever been in Fox News polling across either of his terms. That’s a significant slide from the steady 39% he had held since May. The erosion isn’t just among traditional opponents; it’s happening among groups that helped him win: voters under 45, those making less than $50,000 a year, non-white voters, and people without college degrees. Even his own party is cooling on him, with Republican approval dropping 16 points since the start of his second term in March 2025, though it remains at 76%. The president’s approval on specific issues is even more dire: 77% disapprove of how he’s handling inflation, 70% on the economy, and 69% on tariffs. Only border security is a toss-up, with half approving and half disapproving. The other issues that were once his strong suit, like immigration, now see 56% disapproval.
Given this profound economic dissatisfaction, it’s no wonder voters are in a mood to send a message. Seven in ten say they will cast their ballot to express their feelings about Trump — and nearly twice as many of those say they are voting in opposition (47%) than in support (25%). This translates directly into ballot preferences: if the election were held today, 54% say they’d back the Democratic candidate in their House district, versus 45% for the Republican. That gap has widened from last month, when it was a seven-point lead. Even among those who say they are certain to vote, Democrats hold a 52-46 advantage. But there is a catch. The partisan makeup is nearly even — 43% identify as Democrats and 41% as Republicans, within the margin of error. Both parties express similar certainty about voting, but Democrats show greater enthusiasm. This suggests that turnout will be critical. As Republican pollster Daron Shaw notes, “When the country is this closely divided in terms of partisanship, slight differences in defection and turnout rates can make all the difference.” The Democrats are winning the enthusiasm battle, and they are also winning over independents by a massive 26-point margin. They attract support from college-educated whites, younger voters, women, union households, and Hispanics — with only 31% of Hispanic voters now backing the Republican, down from 43% in the 2024 election. On the other hand, Republicans maintain their grip on whites without college degrees, older voters, religious churchgoers, veterans, and white evangelicals. The battle lines are stark, and the middle ground is shrinking.
But does the Democratic lead translate into trust on the issues that matter? Partly, yes. When voters list their top five concerns — government corruption, inflation, gas prices, government leadership, and healthcare — Democrats are trusted more than Republicans by double digits on each one. Overall, Democrats lead on ten out of thirteen key issues. Republicans are only seen as better on crime (by ten points) and border security (by eight points), while immigration is a narrow three-point Republican edge. More strikingly, Democrats have reclaimed ground that Republicans once owned. Four years ago, voters trusted Republicans by 21 points on border security, 13 points on inflation, and 9 points on foreign policy. Now, those advantages are gone, and in some cases flipped. On inflation, Democrats are preferred by 16 points; on gas prices, by 12; on foreign policy, by 9. This is a stunning reversal of the reputational landscape. Yet, there is a deep caveat: just 35% of voters think Democrats have a clear plan for the country, and an even smaller 33% say the same about Republicans. Just a year ago, Republicans had a 10-point edge on this question of planning. Now, it’s a wash. This suggests that while voters lean toward the Democrats out of anger at the economy, they are not inspired by a compelling vision. It’s a vote against, not necessarily a vote for something.
The broader political mood is one of profound distrust and loathing. Congress is held in near-contempt by 84% of voters, with just 15% approving. Both major parties are viewed unfavorably: the Democratic Party has a net favorability of -16 points (42% favorable, 58% unfavorable), and the Republican Party is even worse at -23 points (38% favorable, 61% unfavorable). Yet, people still choose sides, often holding their nose. About a third of Democratic supporters (31%) actually dislike their party, and 23% of Republican backers say the same about theirs. In the large slice of the electorate that dislikes both parties — the “double haters” at 26% — Democrats hold a commanding 62-36 lead. This is not a burst of enthusiasm but a reluctant choice for the lesser of two perceived evils. And the polarization is visceral: only 16% of Republicans think Democrats love America and want what’s best for the country, while just 6% of Democrats extend the same courtesy to Republicans. Over the past four years, slightly more people now see Democrats as patriotic, while fewer see Republicans that way — but both numbers are depressingly low. It’s a tribal war where each side views the other not as a political opponent but as a threat to the nation itself.
What does this all mean for the upcoming election? The data suggests a real chance for a Democratic wave, but it’s fragile. The issue environment is favorable to them, they have an enthusiasm edge, and they’ve built a lead on the question of who will “fight for people like you” — a 14-point advantage. Yet, the lack of a clear plan and the deep unpopularity of both parties could deflate turnout. There are also some cultural currents that might complicate the narrative. Fifty-one percent view capitalism favorably versus 32% for socialism — a notable number, but more interestingly, those with positive views of socialism heavily back Democrats, while capitalism fans lean Republican. On foreign policy, six in ten oppose U.S. military action against Iran, and that sentiment breaks heavily Democratic. A new high of 46% think the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, and those voters favor Democrats by 42 points. Conversely, the 4 in 10 who think U.S. support is about right back Republicans by 27 points. And as artificial intelligence becomes a growing worry, the nearly six in ten who view it negatively lean toward Democrats. This is a complex tapestry, but the through-line is simple: the economy is the anchor, and it is weighing down the president and his party. With Election Day fast approaching, the Republican Party has little time to close the gap. As pollster Shaw put it, “It’s getting late.” But in a deeply divided nation where 84% disapprove of Congress, no one is expecting universal jubilation after the votes are counted — just a change in who takes the heat. The only guarantee is that the cost of living, and the fear of falling behind, will be on everyone’s minds when they enter the polling booth.
