The Computing Power Precision and Bitcoin’s "Ancient Supply"
In a recent research by Fidelity Digital Assets on-chain data, it was revealed that Bitcoin’s (BTC) "ancient supply" is on an upward trend. According to the June 18 research, the 10-year-plus cohort, which represents Bitcoin that has remained unmoved for at least a decade, has surpassed the 450 BTC added to circulation each day since its last halving cutting the overall issuance in half (which set issuance in 2024 to a low of 125 BTC on April 2025). This significant milestone has changed Bitcoin’s network dynamics, highlighting the precision of its computing power and the accelerating pace of the system’s need to grow its infrastructure to accommodate increasing demand.
The Importance of BitsStill and新能源 Impact
The ancient supply, defined as Bitcoin that hasn’t been held by the public for ten years, now makes up approximately 17% of the total mined Bitcoin, valued at around $3.6 trillion at the end of 2024. This represents 3.4 million Bitcoin, with an estimated market value of over $360 billion, standing at $107,000 per coin. The余额 from aging Bitcoin gears reflects the system’s focus on building a more established and secure network, with no coin being truly abandoned.
Some 33% of contained Bitcoin still resides in this 10-year-plus cohort, while the rest are lost or are irretrievably forgotten. However, any coin that can be recovered into active use is underdoubled. This dynamic suggests that Bitcoin is taking a more assertive approach to secure its future, with the potential to become an authoritative currency in the long run.
The HODL Rate as a Key indicator of Asset Truthfulness
The HODL rate, or historical open-deposit and indirect share count rate, is a measure of Bitcoin’s perceived authenticity. Since the inception of Bitcoin around 2009, this metric has fluctuated, with a decade uptrend period and a five-year downtrend. After its 2024 halving cut, the HODL rate has northstar it closer to the target of 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply. The measure has shown consistency into current times, with a HODL rate of over positive 116 Bitcoin per day happening in April 2024 and averaging positive 116 over the first quarter.
This pattern indicates that a growing number of holders are starting to take ownership of Bitcoin, moving beyond the simplistic notion that mining operations are the primary source of circulation. The HODL rate serves as a gauge of Bitcoin’s enduring interest, reflecting the maturity of its pegged currency and the confidence in its viability despite itsyleft Booth.
Asset Allocation and the Diversification Board
The concept of "ancient supply" is closely linked to Bitcoin’s asset allocation and presence within the ecosystem. While only about 17% of Bitcoin is contained in the 10-year-plus cohort, the remaining 83% is fairly evenly divided into old, devalued Bitcoin that have been held for extended periods. The non-monetary portion of Bitcoin could be a substantial but inscrutably guarded asset, potentially providing a loyal base for institutions and speculation.
Over time, the proportion of a Bitcoin that can be recovered from this pool has increased. Since the post-2024 US election period, bitwise of transactions involving this cohort have declined by 38.5% on a daily basis, curtailed the previous 5- to 10-year-holders by 49.3%, and even the 2.5- to 5-year-holders see a 37.6% decline in activity over the same time frame. This suggests that the older Bitcoinmass is becoming increasingly fragmented and tightly-knit, with limited opportunities for Cash to be moved in its circulation.
The growth of long-term controlled blocks, such as those maintained by companies with large institutional balances, aims to provide a more secure and逼ved-accessible pool of coins. These blocks, like private token exchanges, are potentially more subject to trends and volatility, as their supply is more tightly controlled by assetessed rather than demand. This creates a more flexible but less elastic contract between supply and demand, potentially defying the ideal of a commodity whose supply is non-弹性的.
Bitcoin as Inelastic as Commodity
In the broader context of Bitcoin’s supply model, the coalescence of older coins into a dominant cohort has led many to compare it superficially to the coarser, more established commodity classes like aluminum or oil. While Bitcoin remains an asset that attempts to impose a price prediction on its unknown future, it leans less on the notions of supply elasticity.
For a currency that was once associated with speculative entry and demand-driven expansions, now, the price discovery process is more tightly cyclical and closer to the process of routing transactions. This dynamic is intended to align Bitcoin’s supply pegs more closely with the pathways of demand, leading to a degree of arbitrage that is less pronounced than for most other cryptocurrencies. This idea has been briefly hinted at in discussions of the Diamond Network, with an implicit suggestion that compensation for held assets is now tied to actual liquidity movements rather than desired levels.
