Bitcoin Rallies as Weak Jobs Report Upends Fed Bets — and a Rare Technical Signal Turns Heads

A Disappointing Jobs Report Flips the Script for Risk Assets

The September employment report landed like a bucket of cold water on Wall Street’s view of the American economy — and for Bitcoin, it turned out to be exactly the spark the market needed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. employers added just 29,000 positions last month, roughly a third of what economists had projected. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, ticked up to 4.2 percent. If the headline figures were sobering, the subsequent revisions made them even worse: July’s payroll count was recalculated from a gain of 21,000 to an outright loss of 10,000 jobs, while August’s reading was trimmed sharply from 162,000 to 133,000. Annual wage growth, a key gauge of inflationary pressure emanating from the labor market, cooled to 3.0 percent. For workers, it was a discouraging snapshot of a softening economy. For traders, however, the data was read through a very different lens — one that pointed directly at the Federal Reserve and the likelihood of a less aggressive monetary policy. It is the strange arithmetic of this cycle: what is bad for paychecks is often good for Bitcoin.

The reasoning is straightforward enough to follow. A weakening labor market reduces the pressure on the central bank to keep lifting interest rates — and, in more optimistic scenarios, raises the odds that policymakers will eventually pivot toward cuts. Since Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have historically danced in rhythm with liquidity conditions, any hint that the tightening campaign might be approaching its final act is treated as a bullish catalyst. That logic played out almost mechanically after Friday’s release, as the leading digital asset pushed higher while equity markets joined the celebration. The print was so far off the mark that it reignited a familiar debate among economists about whether the Fed has overcorrected in its inflation fight, risking a deeper slowdown just to wring out the last stubborn remnants of price growth. But for the crypto market, the question was less philosophical and more practical: what does a suddenly fragile labor market mean for the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee?

Rate-Cut Hopes Surge as Fed Bets Do a Rapid About-Face

The shift in expectations was nothing short of dramatic. The Federal Reserve, having raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16 in a unanimous vote, had given markets every reason to believe that further tightening was still on the table. Just a week before Friday’s jobs report, bond traders were assigning a 64 percent probability to another hike at the central bank’s October meeting. After the payroll numbers hit the tape, those odds collapsed to somewhere between 16 and 22 percent, depending on the trading snapshot. That is a breathtaking repricing of monetary policy in a single session — and the shockwave rippled through every asset class that cares about the trajectory of interest rates. The reaction was felt in the Treasury market as well, where yields adjusted to the new reality of a less aggressive Fed. For digital assets, the shift carried doubled meaning: lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while a softer dollar outlook tends to offer an additional tailwind to assets priced in it.

The move was also the perfect mirror image of a moment that felt eerily recent. On September 4, an unexpectedly strong August jobs report had sent Bitcoin skidding more than 2 percent to near $79,300, as traders scrambled to price in a more hawkish Fed. Friday’s reversal effectively unwound all of that positioning: today, Bitcoin trades roughly 8 percent above the post-report lows of early September. The equity complex mirrored the enthusiasm. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73 percent, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.19 percent to 27,190.86 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.49 percent to finish at 51,176.96. Nvidia, the bellwether of the artificial-intelligence trade, touched yet another record high, and stock futures were quietly ticking higher into Sunday evening. The relief rally, in other words, was broad-based — and the message from traders was consistent: as long as the Fed remains in a holding pattern, the path of least resistance for risk assets leads upward.

Altcoins Trot Alongside Bitcoin as ETF Demand Refuses to Cool

Bitcoin’s advance has not been an entirely solitary affair, though the altcoin market is proceeding with a level of caution that speaks volumes about conviction. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, trades at $2,711, up 0.59 percent. XRP is changing hands at $1.51 after gaining 0.81 percent. Solana, on the other hand, slipped 0.91 percent to $120.31, a reminder that even in a rising market, not every asset shares equally in the spoils. All of the top ten altcoins are sitting in the green, yet none has moved more than a single percentage point — with one notable exception. Hyperliquid, the perpetuals-focused protocol token, has climbed 3.68 percent on the day to $93.17 and sits roughly 6 percent higher on the week. That pattern of modest, selective gains suggests accumulation without euphoria, a healthier dynamic than the kind of across-the-board frenzy that has too often marked short-term tops in the crypto market. For the altcoin complex, the story is often one of beta — leveraged exposure to Bitcoin’s trend — but this week’s uneven movement reveals a more discerning audience, one that is willing to bid up tokens with clear narratives while leaving others to drift.

What might be even more reassuring for bulls is the behavior of institutional money. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of $189.84 million on the latest daily reading, with total net assets across the funds reaching $101.1 billion, according to data from Decrypt. Steady ETF inflows matter far beyond the headline number: they represent persistent institutional demand that mechanically removes Bitcoin from the market as fund issuers build inventory behind the scenes. That creates a structural bid beneath the price, one that operates independent of the noise of day-to-day trading. In a market historically dominated by retail sentiment, the continued presence of regulated investment vehicles — and the steady accumulation they facilitate — is a genuinely new dynamic with real force. It is also a clear signal that professional allocators remain undeterred by macro uncertainty. While retail traders may waver in response to a single headline, the institutional bid has proven remarkably sticky.

Chart Check: Bitcoin Meets Resistance With Momentum Still Building

For technical analysts, the immediate picture is defined by a single figure: $87,354. That level, the recent swing high on the daily chart, remains the ceiling that Bitcoin has yet to decisively conquer. Every attempt to break beyond it has been met with selling, and until that barrier is cleared with a confident breakout, the rally remains, in technical terms, a rejection at resistance. But look beneath the surface, and the momentum structure tells a more encouraging story. The Relative Strength Index, which measures the magnitude of recent gains against losses on a scale of zero to 100 and traditionally flags readings above 70 as overbought, currently sits at 64.7. It is a hot number, but not an exhausted one. The Average Directional Index, which gauges trend strength in either direction and treats readings above 25 as evidence of a meaningful trend, stands at 43.4. Together, the indicators paint the picture of a market that is pushing hard, with a formidable trend behind it, but has not yet reached the kind of extremes that have previously prefaced sharp reversals. Support, meanwhile, has been building steadily in the low-$80,000 region, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in. The combination of rising support and stubborn resistance forms a tightening range — the classic setup that eventually resolves into a breakout in one direction or the other.

The moving-average configuration adds another layer of evidence to the bullish backdrop. Exponential moving averages, which give greater weight to recent price action than to older data points, are arranged in a pattern that chart-watchers have come to trust. The 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA in mid-September — the textbook definition of a golden cross — arriving alongside Bitcoin’s second-best September performance on record. Now, an even rarer and more consequential event has unfolded: the 100-day EMA has also climbed above the 200-day EMA. The dual nature of these crossovers is significant. When the short-term and medium-term averages both sit above the long-term average, the entire structure of the trend flips into bullish alignment. It is, in effect, a double confirmation of a narrative that has been building for months.

The ‘Golden Cross’ That Carries More Weight — and Why It Matters

Why should traders care more about the 100-day crossover than the earlier 50-day version? The answer lies in the difficulty of manufacturing the signal. A sharp two-month bounce can quite easily drag the 50-day EMA above the 200-day line; any vigorous rally from deeply oversold conditions can accomplish that, even if the broader trend remains doubtful. The 100-day EMA, however, is a far slower and more deliberate measure. For that average to overtake the long-term baseline, Bitcoin must hold elevated prices for months on end. That is precisely why this crossover matters: it demonstrates that the recovery from this summer’s sub-$60,000 lows is not merely a reflexive bounce within a longer-term bearish structure, but a genuine reconstruction of the medium-term uptrend. Markets, like tides, take time to turn — and this particular turn has now been validated by a metric that cannot be rushed. The implications extend well beyond the chart. A confirmed medium-term uptrend is the kind of backdrop that invites participation from institutional allocators who want to see a demonstrated trend before committing capital. It also lays the groundwork for renewed retail interest, which has a well-documented habit of following the chart rather than leading it.

There is, as always, a caveat. Moving averages are lagging indicators by nature. A golden cross does not predict the future; it confirms the past. By the time the signal fires, the move that created it has already substantially occurred, which means today’s push toward resistance may already reflect the good news embedded in the crossover. This is why seasoned traders rarely rely on a single indicator in isolation. In this case, however, all the other pieces of the puzzle — the momentum readings, the persistent ETF inflows, and the positioning of traders in prediction markets — are pointing in the same direction. When confirmation arrives from multiple independent sources, it carries far more weight than any one signal aloneamenable. The bullish case has been building for weeks, and the technical structure has now caught up with the fundamental flow.

Prediction Markets and Key Catalysts: A Week That Could Decide Bitcoin’s Next Move

With the macro calendar swinging back into focus, the coming stretch could play an outsized role in determining whether Bitcoin finally clears the $87,354 barrier or stalls once again. The week’s schedule is light in terms of volume but heavy in terms of significance. On Wednesday, October 7, at 2:00 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September meeting — a document that should provide a fuller window into the deliberations of a committee wrestling with conflicting signals across the economy. Shortly after, on October 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the September Consumer Price Index, arguably the most closely watched inflation reading in the world. The Fed’s next policy meeting runs from October 27 to 28, with a press conference scheduled for October 28 at 2:30 p.m. ET, during which market participants will parse every syllable in search of directional guidance. Each of these events carries the power to reshape expectations in one headline.

In the meantime, the prediction markets have already cast their ballots. On Myriad, the prediction platform built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the probability that Bitcoin touches $87,500 in October trades at 80 percent. The odds of a run toward $90,000 stand at 59 percent, while $95,000 and $100,000 command just 25 percent and 12 percent, respectively. Those numbers reflect a market that is optimistic about the near term yet realistic about the obstacles remaining. Prediction markets have proven themselves increasingly accurate in recent years, and their current leaning aligns with the broader technical picture. None of this is guaranteed, of course. A hotter-than-expected CPI print could rekindle hawkish fears in an instant, and the Fed minutes could reveal a more aggressive posture than the market has priced in. But Bitcoin has absorbed a hawkish Fed, an alarming jobs report, and the ebb and flow of ETF flows — and it has done so while maintaining an unmistakable upward tilt. The resistance at $87,354 is a formidable hurdle, and whether Bitcoin breaks through or ricochets downward could well be decided in the days ahead. For a market that has spent the past month rebuilding its trend structure, the next chapter is beginning to take shape.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.