The Syrian civil war took a dramatic turn as insurgent forces achieved a series of stunning victories, rapidly advancing across the country and reaching the outskirts of the capital, Damascus. The fall of Homs, a strategically vital city linking Damascus to President Assad’s coastal strongholds and a Russian naval base, dealt a potentially crippling blow to the government. The swift rebel advance, spearheaded by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, formerly linked to al-Qaida, saw opposition fighters seize control of Aleppo, Hama, and large swathes of the south, leaving the government in control of only three of fourteen provincial capitals. This rapid territorial loss triggered widespread panic in Damascus, with residents scrambling to stockpile supplies and many attempting to flee the country. Shops closed or drastically inflated prices, reflecting the growing sense of uncertainty and fear gripping the capital. The insurgents’ arrival at Damascus’ outskirts marked the first time they had reached this close since 2018.
The insurgent offensive, which began on November 27th, exposed the vulnerability of the Assad regime and the erosion of its support. While Russia, Assad’s primary international backer, was preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, other allies like Hezbollah and Iran were also facing their own challenges. Hezbollah had been weakened by conflict with Israel, and Iran’s regional proxies had been targeted by regular Israeli airstrikes. This lack of external support, coupled with the insurgents’ swift and decisive maneuvers, presented the most serious threat to Assad’s rule since the war’s inception. The Syrian army, seemingly unable to mount an effective defense, withdrew from large areas in the south, further solidifying the rebels’ control. Reports also emerged of insurgents entering Palmyra, a city of significant historical and archaeological importance, which had been under government control since being recaptured from ISIS in 2017.
The rapid deterioration of the situation prompted urgent calls for international intervention and a political solution. UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, appealed for immediate talks in Geneva to facilitate an “orderly political transition.” He emphasized the urgency of the situation, noting that the dynamics on the ground were changing by the minute. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed concern for the Syrian people, while the incoming US President-elect Donald Trump urged the United States to avoid military involvement, placing blame on the Obama administration for the escalating crisis. President Biden’s national security advisor also stated that the administration had no plans for intervention in Syria. Pedersen aimed to schedule talks in Geneva on implementing a 2015 UN resolution calling for a Syrian-led political process.
Despite the rapidly deteriorating situation, the Syrian state media denied rumors of Assad fleeing the country, insisting that he remained in Damascus performing his duties. However, the lack of effective support from his allies placed him in a precarious position. Meanwhile, the UN, as a precautionary measure, began relocating non-essential staff out of Syria. Later, a meeting of foreign ministers and senior diplomats from eight key countries, including regional rivals Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey, alongside Russia and Egypt, took place in Doha. They affirmed their commitment to a political resolution and stressed the importance of increased international aid to the Syrian people.
The rebel advance on Damascus unfolded on multiple fronts. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, insurgents were present in the suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana, and Daraya, and were progressing towards Harasta. A rebel commander announced the commencement of the “final stage” of their offensive, aiming to encircle the capital. The HTS, the dominant force in the rebel coalition, controlled a significant portion of northwest Syria. Their leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, had sought to rebrand the group in recent years, distancing it from al-Qaida and promoting a more moderate image.
The dramatic shift in the Syrian conflict underscored the complex interplay of domestic and international factors. The Assad regime’s weakened state, coupled with the rise of HTS as a powerful force and the distraction of its allies, created a fertile ground for the rapid insurgent advance. The international community, while advocating for a political solution, appeared reluctant to engage militarily. The unfolding events raised concerns about the future of Syria, with the potential for further escalation, fragmentation, and humanitarian crisis. The urgent need for a negotiated settlement became more critical than ever to prevent further bloodshed and instability.
