Sudan’s Disputed Path to Democracy: Elections Amid Conflict and Crisis

Civil War’s Shadow Looms Over Sudan’s Controversial Electoral Plans

In the sweltering heat of Khartoum, Sudan’s once-bustling capital now bears the scars of a devastating civil war that has torn the nation apart. Military vehicles patrol eerily quiet streets where civilian life once thrived. This troubled East African nation, already struggling with decades of economic hardship and political instability before the conflict, now faces a humanitarian catastrophe of staggering proportions. Against this backdrop of violence and suffering, Sudan’s military rulers have announced plans to hold elections – a move that has drawn skepticism from international observers and outright condemnation from opposition groups.

The roots of Sudan’s current crisis trace back to April 2023, when tensions between the country’s two most powerful military leaders erupted into open warfare. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who commands the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), turned their weapons against each other after a power-sharing agreement collapsed. What began as a struggle for control of the country’s government and resources quickly engulfed civilian populations, with both sides accused of atrocities including indiscriminate bombing of residential areas, systematic sexual violence, and targeted killings. “This conflict has shattered any progress Sudan had made toward democratic transition,” explains Dr. Amina Ibrahim, a political analyst specializing in East African governance. “The military coup that preceded the civil war had already derailed the democratic process, but the outbreak of fighting has created a humanitarian emergency that makes meaningful political participation nearly impossible.”

The Human Cost: A Nation in Humanitarian Free Fall

The statistics paint a grim picture of Sudan’s descent into crisis. According to the United Nations, more than 10 million Sudanese have been displaced from their homes – nearly one-quarter of the country’s population – making this one of the world’s largest displacement crises. Famine conditions threaten several regions, with aid organizations reporting that over 18 million people face acute food insecurity. Healthcare systems have collapsed, with more than 70% of hospitals in conflict zones non-operational. The World Health Organization has documented deliberate attacks on medical facilities, a war crime under international law. Economic indicators have plummeted, with inflation soaring above 200% and unemployment reaching record levels.

The human stories behind these numbers are even more devastating. “I fled my home in Darfur with just the clothes on my back,” recounts Fatima Mahmoud, a 34-year-old mother of three now living in a makeshift camp on Sudan’s border with Chad. “My husband was killed when militia fighters attacked our village. We walked for two weeks to reach safety, but even here, there is not enough food or medicine.” Humanitarian organizations report that children are particularly vulnerable, with UNICEF documenting thousands of cases of malnutrition, untreated diseases, and psychological trauma. Access to education has been severely disrupted, with nearly 7 million children out of school. “We’re witnessing the collapse of social institutions that took decades to build,” says Ibrahim Hassan, a Sudanese sociologist. “Even if the fighting stopped tomorrow, rebuilding these systems would take years, perhaps generations.”

Military Rulers Seek Legitimacy Through Contested Elections

Despite – or perhaps because of – the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe, Sudan’s military leadership has announced plans to hold elections within the coming year. General al-Burhan, speaking from his heavily fortified headquarters in Khartoum, has framed the election as a path toward stability and international recognition. “The Sudanese people deserve a voice in their future,” he stated in a televised address last month. “These elections will restore constitutional order and allow Sudan to rebuild.” The military government has established an electoral commission and begun drafting voter registration protocols, despite controlling only portions of the country’s territory.

International reaction has been predominantly negative. The African Union, European Union, and United States have all expressed serious concerns about the feasibility and legitimacy of elections held under current conditions. “Free and fair elections require security, freedom of movement, access to information, and basic civil liberties – none of which exist in today’s Sudan,” stated a joint communiqué from the AU Peace and Security Council. Democracy watchdog organizations have been even more blunt in their assessment. “This is a transparent attempt to launder military rule through a sham electoral process,” says Monique Wedderburn of the International Democracy Institute. “Without a ceasefire, humanitarian access, and genuine political reconciliation, elections would be meaningless at best and dangerous at worst.” Legal experts note that any electoral exercise would exclude millions of displaced Sudanese, effectively disenfranchising those most affected by the conflict.

Historical Context: Democracy’s Troubled Journey in Sudan

Sudan’s relationship with democracy has been tumultuous at best. Since gaining independence from Anglo-Egyptian rule in 1956, the country has experienced only brief periods of civilian democratic governance, interspersed with military coups and authoritarian regimes. The 30-year dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir, who seized power in 1989, was marked by brutal repression, civil wars, and economic mismanagement. His overthrow in 2019, following months of peaceful pro-democracy protests, sparked hopes for genuine democratic transformation. A transitional government combining civilian and military elements was established, with plans for a full transition to civilian rule.

Those hopes were dashed in October 2021 when General al-Burhan led a military coup against the civilian components of the transitional government. International condemnation and renewed street protests followed, but the military retained its grip on power. “Sudan’s democratic aspirations have been repeatedly hijacked by security forces unwilling to relinquish their political and economic privileges,” explains Professor Jamal Ahmed of Khartoum University’s Political Science Department. “The current push for elections follows a familiar pattern: military rulers seeking to convert their power obtained through force into constitutional legitimacy.” Sudan’s experience mirrors that of several other African nations where military rulers have used nominally democratic processes to entrench their authority while maintaining the appearance of civilian rule. The critical difference in Sudan’s case is the attempt to hold elections amid an active civil war – a virtually unprecedented scenario in modern electoral history.

Looking Forward: Genuine Democracy Requires Peace and Reconciliation

Experts and civil society leaders emphasize that genuine democratic progress in Sudan requires several preconditions that currently do not exist. First and foremost is an end to hostilities between SAF and RSF forces. “You cannot vote while dodging bullets,” says Nima Abdelrahman, coordinator of the Sudanese Network for Democratic Reform. “Peace is a prerequisite for political participation.” Second is addressing the humanitarian catastrophe, allowing displaced populations to return home safely and rebuilding basic services. Third is a genuine political dialogue that includes civilian political parties, civil society organizations, women’s groups, youth movements, and representatives from Sudan’s diverse regions and ethnic communities.

International engagement will be crucial in determining Sudan’s political future. Regional powers including Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Gulf states have competing interests in the country, while global actors like Russia, China, and Western democracies jockey for influence. “Without coordinated international pressure for a comprehensive peace process, military leaders will continue to pursue their narrow agendas at the population’s expense,” warns former UN diplomat Carlos Mendoza, who has extensive experience in conflict resolution in Africa. For ordinary Sudanese, the immediate concerns remain survival and security rather than politics. “Talk of elections seems absurd when we don’t have food, medicine, or safety,” says Ahmed Salih, a teacher now living as an internally displaced person in Port Sudan. “Democracy isn’t just about voting – it’s about dignity, rights, and having a government that serves the people instead of killing them.” As Sudan approaches the second anniversary of its civil war, the contrast between the military’s electoral ambitions and the population’s desperate reality could not be starker. True democracy remains a distant dream for a nation fighting simply to survive.