The Shadow Players: Venezuela’s Uncertain Future Beyond Maduro
Venezuela stands at a critical crossroads as the United States intensifies pressure on the Maduro regime. What many outside observers fail to grasp, however, is that Venezuela today is less a centralized dictatorship and more a patchwork of territories controlled by criminal organizations, Colombian insurgents, and regime-aligned militias. According to experts tracking the situation, the collapse of Maduro’s government without proper planning could unleash something far more dangerous—a power vacuum potentially filled by actors who have been quietly embedding themselves within Venezuela’s fractured landscape for decades. “The way I see it, what comes next will largely depend on what direction this U.S. pressure campaign goes in,” explains Roxanna Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. national security official. “If it goes in the direction of escalation and conflict, that means there’s going to be very little control—or even less ability to influence what comes next.”
The danger in Venezuela extends far beyond Maduro himself, reaching into a complex ecosystem of armed groups already controlling significant portions of the country. Jason Marczak of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center points to the presence of some of the Western Hemisphere’s most violent criminal syndicates. Though it might seem impossible for Venezuela’s situation to deteriorate further, both analysts warn that an uncontrolled transition could lead to exactly that outcome. “You could have someone potentially worse than Maduro,” Vigil notes with concern. The critical issue isn’t just removing Maduro but ensuring that those around him—the perpetrators of ongoing injustice—aren’t simply allowed to step into the vacuum. If opposition figures like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González fail to establish democratic governance following Maduro’s potential departure, several dangerous actors stand ready to seize control.
Among the most concerning potential successors is Diosdado Cabello, widely considered Maduro’s second-in-command and perhaps the most feared figure within the regime. With sweeping control over party machinery, propaganda, internal political enforcement, and justice portfolios, Cabello represents a more centralized threat than Maduro. The United States sanctioned him in 2018 for corruption, money laundering, embezzlement, and connections to drug-trafficking networks, specifically the Cartel de los Soles. Security experts believe a Cabello-led government would likely consolidate party power, state security forces, and media control under a single, hardline operator with established criminal connections. Equally concerning is Jorge Rodríguez, president of Venezuela’s National Assembly and one of Maduro’s closest political strategists. His extensive experience as mayor, communications minister, and election manager makes him a dangerous potential successor who could implement a more technocratic—but no less authoritarian—version of Chavismo.
The military dimension cannot be overlooked in any post-Maduro scenario. Vladimir Padrino López, Venezuela’s long-serving defense minister, represents the backbone of military establishment and the guarantor of Maduro’s survival. Sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury as part of Maduro’s inner circle, Padrino’s assumption of leadership could shift Venezuela toward an even more explicitly militarized model where political authority openly merges with military command structures. Meanwhile, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, described as a central political operator whose influence spans institutional, economic, and diplomatic spheres, has increasingly taken control of critical sectors, including the oil industry. This places her at the center of the opaque revenue structures that sustain the regime. Her potential leadership could further tighten state control over Venezuela’s economy and political apparatus.
Two additional figures round out the circle of potential successors who could deepen Venezuela’s crisis. First Lady Cilia Flores, a longtime Chavista power broker who has held senior positions including National Assembly president and attorney general, possesses significant political reach within the party and legal system. Sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2018 alongside family members linked to narcotics cases, Flores remains a pivotal actor in any succession scenario. Perhaps most disturbing is Iván Hernández Dala, who heads Venezuela’s military counterintelligence service (DGCIM) and commands the presidential guard. His control over internal repression gives him significant leverage in any power struggle. The U.S. Department of Treasury has documented horrific human rights abuses under his command, including “brutal beatings, asphyxiation, cutting soles of feet with razor blades, electric shocks, and death threats.”
As Venezuela teeters on the brink, experts emphasize that Washington’s next moves will largely determine whether the country moves toward democracy or descends into something even worse. The binary choice now facing U.S. policymakers is whether to pursue a path of negotiation that might facilitate a managed transition or continue with escalation that could trigger an uncontrolled collapse. “A win isn’t just Nicolás Maduro leaving,” Marczak emphasizes. “A win is actually a transition to democratic forces.” The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Venezuelan people, who have already endured years of economic collapse, humanitarian crisis, and political repression. Without careful international engagement that addresses not just Maduro but the entire criminal ecosystem that has taken root during his rule, Venezuela risks becoming not just a failed state but a dangerous patchwork of territories controlled by warlords, cartels, and authoritarian strongmen potentially worse than Maduro himself.
