Hezbollah’s Rebuilding Efforts Spark Concerns of Future Conflict with Israel

One year after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its military capabilities along Israel’s northern border, raising alarms among security experts about the potential for another devastating war. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently released footage showing Hezbollah operatives reestablishing infrastructure in the Lebanese village of Beit Lif, with IDF spokesman Nadav Shoshani explicitly calling this a “blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement.” This rebuilding comes despite the presence of United Nations peacekeeping forces (UNIFIL), which critics argue have failed to fulfill their mandate to disarm the terrorist group. The situation is further complicated by the slow response of the Lebanese Armed Forces, prompting Israel to conduct near-daily strikes against Hezbollah targets inside Lebanon to prevent the group from regaining its full combat capabilities.

Sarit Zehavi, a prominent Israeli security expert from the Alma Research and Education Center who resides in northern Israel, offered some reassurance by noting that Hezbollah currently lacks “the capability to carry out an October invasion” like it could have before October 7, 2023. “They can send in a few terrorists. I want to believe it will take a few years to get those capabilities back,” she told Fox News Digital. Her assessment comes after Fox News Digital exclusively reported last year on Hezbollah’s war plans to invade northern Israel and wage a scorched-earth campaign against the Jewish state. It’s worth remembering that Hezbollah launched missile attacks against Israel just one day after Hamas’s devastating October 7 invasion that killed over 1,200 people, showing the coordination between Iran’s proxy forces in the region.

The current situation has evolved into a race between the IDF’s preemptive strikes and Hezbollah’s rebuilding efforts. “Both the IDF and Hezbollah are very active. The IDF is very active to stop the rehabilitation of Hezbollah and Hezbollah is very active in rebuilding,” Zehavi explained. Interestingly, she noted that the group has faced challenges in weapons smuggling from Syria, with the Syrian regime occasionally intercepting shipments—forcing Hezbollah to rely more on manufacturing its own rockets. The terrorist organization appears to be investing heavily in drones, short-range rockets, mortars, and anti-tank missiles. This focus on drone capabilities extends beyond Lebanon’s borders, as evidenced by the recent trial in Germany against an alleged Hezbollah operative who reportedly ran “an extensive drone program” in Europe. The German Federal Prosecutor’s Office stated that the suspect joined Hezbollah more than a decade ago and worked as a “foreign operator” for the group’s drone program in Spain and Germany as recently as 2022.

Despite suffering significant losses, particularly through the spectacular Mossad pager operation that decimated much of its leadership, Hezbollah continues to receive crucial support from Iran. “Iran immediately provided oxygen to Hezbollah for treatment to help revive Hezbollah,” Zehavi said. The IDF has adapted its defensive strategy accordingly, establishing positions on strategic hilltops in both Israel and Lebanon to maintain surveillance and respond quickly to terrorist activities. This tactical positioning has provided Israeli civilians with an increased sense of security that was absent before October 7. While Hezbollah is estimated to have 50,000 terrorists and an equal number of reservists, the IDF has killed “a few thousand terrorists” and degraded approximately 80% of the group’s rocket arsenal, including many of its long-range and highly accurate missiles—a significant achievement in reducing the immediate threat to Israeli population centers.

Lebanese-born Israeli scholar Edy Cohen presents a more alarming assessment, stating that “there is no lack of arms for Hezbollah in Beirut and Lebanon” and noting recent reports of weapons shipments from Syria and Iran, with the latter attempting to smuggle arms via civilian aircraft. He highlights the intense pressure on Hezbollah from both Israeli operations and its own Shiite community in Lebanon, which expects the group to retaliate against Israel. “For the Shiite community, Hezbollah is the state,” Cohen explained, underscoring the group’s deep entrenchment in Lebanese society. The IDF continues to gather intelligence on Hezbollah’s arsenal and conducts almost daily attacks on its leaders and operatives. However, Cohen warned ominously that because “Hezbollah said it will not disarm its militia… the big war will come,” suggesting that the current state of limited conflict is merely a prelude to a more extensive confrontation.

The precarious situation in Lebanon is further complicated by the country’s political dysfunction. In early November, Fox News Digital reported that Trump’s former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey, Thomas Barrack, who also served as envoy to Syria, described Lebanon as a “failed state” due to its “paralyzed government.” Barrack provided sobering statistics about the disparity between Hezbollah and Lebanon’s legitimate armed forces: the terrorist group maintains 40,000 fighters and between 15,000 and 20,000 rockets and missiles, paying its militia members $2,200 monthly—nearly eight times more than the $275 earned by soldiers in the Lebanese Armed Forces, who also operate with inferior equipment. This economic reality has made it difficult for Lebanon’s official military to effectively counter Hezbollah’s influence, leaving Israel to shoulder the burden of preventing the terrorist organization from rebuilding its capabilities to pre-October 7 levels. As both sides continue their chess match of actions and reactions along the border, regional observers watch with growing concern about whether the current limited conflict will escalate into the “big war” that Cohen and others predict looms on the horizon.