The resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS) as a global threat has been brought into sharp focus following a suspected terrorist attack in New Orleans on New Year’s Day. While the FBI has not yet confirmed a direct link between the perpetrator, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, and ISIS, the incident underscores the persistent danger posed by the terrorist group, particularly in light of its expanding presence in regions like the Sahel in Africa. The attack, which claimed the lives of at least 15 people and injured dozens more, involved Jabbar driving a pickup truck adorned with an ISIS flag into a crowd on Bourbon Street. Although the FBI is still investigating Jabbar’s motives and potential affiliations, reports indicate that he expressed sympathy for ISIS and may have pledged allegiance to the group in online videos. This raises concerns about the continued appeal of ISIS ideology and its potential to inspire lone-wolf attacks. The incident also highlights the premature nature of declarations about ISIS’s defeat, as emphasized by security experts.
The New Orleans attack serves as a stark reminder of the persistent threat posed by ISIS, despite previous claims of its demise. Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, cautions against premature pronouncements of ISIS’s defeat, noting that while the group may experience setbacks, it consistently demonstrates resilience and adaptability. He points to ISIS’s ongoing activities in Afghanistan, its significant network across Africa, and its continued presence in Iraq and Syria as evidence of its enduring threat. Roggio argues that while the New Orleans attack does not necessarily signal a widespread ISIS resurgence, it does highlight the group’s ability to exploit security vacuums and inspire acts of violence.
The evolving geopolitical landscape, characterized by power vacuums and instability, creates fertile ground for the resurgence and expansion of terrorist groups like ISIS. The 2021 withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the subsequent Taliban takeover, coupled with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, have left power voids that ISIS and other extremist organizations can exploit. The Taliban’s inability or unwillingness to effectively counter ISIS-K, the regional affiliate of ISIS in Afghanistan, further exacerbates the threat. The situation in Afghanistan highlights the complex interplay between different terrorist groups, with the Taliban and ISIS-K being adversaries despite both sharing extremist ideologies.
While the Taliban targets ISIS-K, the absence of U.S. counterterrorism operations gives ISIS-K greater freedom of movement. Similarly, the fall of the Assad regime, which actively opposed ISIS, has removed a key adversary, potentially allowing the terrorist group to regain strength and influence in Syria. These developments underscore the unintended consequences of military withdrawals and regime changes, which can inadvertently create conditions conducive to the resurgence of terrorist groups. The need for a comprehensive and sustained counterterrorism strategy is therefore paramount.
The planned withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq by 2026 raises further concerns about the potential for ISIS to exploit the resulting security vacuum. The decision to end the U.S. military mission in Iraq has been met with criticism from security experts who argue that ISIS remains a significant threat and that a premature withdrawal could jeopardize the gains made against the group. The lack of clarity regarding the specifics of the troop drawdown and the absence of revised plans following the Assad regime’s collapse adds to the uncertainty. The incoming Trump administration’s historical stance on troop withdrawals suggests that a reversal of the decision to withdraw from Iraq is unlikely, despite the potential risks posed by ISIS.
The continued presence of U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria is seen by some as crucial for containing ISIS and other terrorist groups. Roggio emphasizes the importance of a robust U.S. presence to deter attacks by militia groups and maintain stability in the region. He argues that without the U.S. presence, ISIS is likely to thrive in the prevailing lawlessness. The collapse of the Assad regime, despite its repressive nature, has removed a key actor in the fight against ISIS, highlighting the complex and often counterintuitive nature of counterterrorism efforts. Relying on terrorist groups to fight other terrorist groups is a risky strategy, as demonstrated by the situation in Afghanistan. The ongoing threat posed by ISIS underscores the need for a clear and comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes of terrorism and prevents the emergence of power vacuums that can be exploited by extremist groups.
