The evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, marked by the Assad regime’s decline and Russia’s waning influence in Syria, presents a unique opportunity for Israel to reassess its relationship with Ukraine and potentially forge a closer alliance. Prominent Israeli voices, including Yuli Edelstein, chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, advocate for increased Israeli support for Ukraine, citing the shifting balance of power and the growing strategic alliance between Russia and Iran. This alliance, solidified by Russia’s reliance on Iranian weaponry, particularly drones and missiles, underscores the shared threat both Israel and Ukraine face from Iranian-backed aggression. Edelstein argues that Israel’s previous cautious approach, dictated by the need to avoid conflict with Russia in Syrian airspace, is no longer necessary, given Russia’s diminished presence.
Israel’s delicate balancing act between Russia and Ukraine has historically been driven by its security concerns in Syria, where Russia’s control of airspace necessitated careful management of Israeli airstrikes against Iranian-backed targets. This cautious stance, despite strong public support for Ukraine, has drawn criticism from Ukrainian officials, who argue that Russia’s deepening ties with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas negate any claim of neutrality and necessitate a shift in Israeli policy. Ambassador Korniychuk emphasizes the shared security challenges faced by both nations, highlighting the potential for mutually beneficial cooperation in air defense, particularly given Israel’s expertise and Ukraine’s firsthand experience combating Iranian drones.
While Israel has refrained from providing offensive weaponry to Ukraine, limiting its assistance to humanitarian and defensive aid, there are growing calls for increased military cooperation. Edelstein advocates for closer collaboration in defense technologies, particularly concerning missiles and drones, citing the vulnerability exposed by recent Iranian drone incursions into Israeli airspace, despite advanced defense systems like Iron Dome and Arrow. This incident underscores the evolving threat landscape and the need for enhanced defensive capabilities, a goal potentially achieved through joint development and knowledge sharing with Ukraine.
The effectiveness of existing Israeli defense systems against the emerging threat of drone swarms is also being questioned. While systems like Iron Dome are highly effective against rockets, they are less suited to counter swarms of smaller, less sophisticated drones. Ukraine’s experience in combating these drones in real-world combat scenarios provides valuable insights and potential opportunities for joint technological development with Israel. This collaboration could enhance both nations’ defensive capabilities, addressing a critical vulnerability in modern warfare.
Despite the cautious public stance maintained by Israel’s government, behind-the-scenes intelligence cooperation between Israel and Ukraine has flourished. Both Israeli and Ukrainian officials acknowledge the existence of close and productive relationships between their respective intelligence communities. This discreet collaboration highlights the underlying strategic alignment between the two countries, even as political considerations limit overt military support. There is hope that this intelligence cooperation will pave the way for increased military assistance, including the sale of critical defense technologies.
The evolving geopolitical landscape, combined with the increasing Iranian threat, presents both challenges and opportunities for Israel. While some analysts, like Rebekah Koffler, argue for maintaining a neutral stance with Russia due to its continued leverage in the Middle East, others, such as Daniel Vajdich, believe that the current situation provides Israel with more freedom to support Ukraine. Vajdich highlights the potential benefits of Israel sharing its advanced defense capabilities with Ukraine, especially in the realm of air defense. He also suggests that a potential change in US administration could further embolden Israel to provide increased support to Ukraine, potentially with increased US backing. This evolving dynamic creates a complex decision-making environment for Israel, requiring a careful assessment of regional security concerns and potential benefits of closer alignment with Ukraine.
