Cardinals Fire Sale Begins: Sonny Gray Traded, Arenado and Contreras Could Be Next
The St. Louis Cardinals have officially begun what appears to be a significant rebuild this winter, trading starting pitcher Sonny Gray to the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday. This move signals a stark shift in direction for a franchise historically known for competitive spending and consistent contention in the National League. In exchange for Gray, the Cardinals received two pitching prospects, Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke, in what many baseball insiders believe is just the first domino to fall in St. Louis’s emerging strategy to shed payroll and veteran contracts.
The trade has immediately fueled speculation about the futures of other prominent Cardinals, particularly third baseman Nolan Arenado and first baseman Willson Contreras. ESPN’s Buster Olney was quick to address the situation, noting on social media that “it seems inevitable that the Cardinals will either trade or release Nolan Arenado before the start of the ’26 season,” while adding that Contreras “will be the last St. Louis player with a contract for 2027. Unless he’s traded.” This sobering assessment highlights just how dramatically the Cardinals are pivoting from their traditional approach of maintaining competitive rosters through targeted spending. Olney further contextualized the situation by pointing out that “The Cardinals could have a lower payroll next year than the Reds. Which might’ve seemed impossible in past decades.” For a franchise that has long positioned itself as a big-market team in a mid-market city, such a development would mark an extraordinary departure from their established business model.
The potential departure of Arenado comes as less of a surprise to most baseball observers. The eight-time Gold Glove winner has been the subject of persistent trade rumors, with speculation about his future in St. Louis circulating even before last season began. Despite his defensive brilliance and consistent offensive production, Arenado’s substantial contract makes him an obvious candidate for a team looking to significantly reduce financial commitments. At 33 years old and with declining offensive numbers in 2023, the timing seems right from a purely business perspective for the Cardinals to move on, even from a player of Arenado’s caliber and reputation. The question isn’t so much whether the Cardinals will trade him, but rather what kind of return they might expect and how much of his remaining contract they would need to absorb to facilitate a deal.
Contreras, on the other hand, represents a more surprising potential trade piece. While there hasn’t been as much speculation surrounding his future with the team, his situation has changed dramatically since signing with St. Louis. Originally brought in as the successor to Yadier Molina behind the plate, Contreras didn’t catch a single inning during the 2023 season, instead shifting to first base and designated hitter. This transition significantly alters his value proposition, as his offensive profile becomes less exceptional when not coming from the catcher position. For teams potentially interested in acquiring Contreras, his defensive limitations narrow the field to those specifically seeking help at first base or designated hitter. The New York Mets, currently searching for solutions at first base, could emerge as a logical trade partner if the Cardinals decide to move forward with shopping Contreras.
What makes this strategic shift particularly notable is how dramatically it contrasts with the Cardinals’ long-standing organizational philosophy. For decades, the Cardinals have maintained a reputation as one of baseball’s most stable and consistently competitive franchises, rarely engaging in the kind of wholesale rebuilding projects that have become common elsewhere in the sport. Under the ownership of the DeWitt family and the front office leadership of John Mozeliak, St. Louis has typically favored a more measured approach to roster construction, seeking to remain competitive year after year while avoiding the extreme peaks and valleys that characterize many teams’ competitive cycles. This apparent pivot toward a more aggressive rebuild suggests a recognition within the organization that their current core of players is insufficient to compete at the highest level, and that a more fundamental restructuring is necessary.
As the winter meetings approach, baseball insiders expect both Arenado and Contreras to feature prominently in trade discussions. For the Cardinals, these potential moves represent not just a reshaping of the roster but potentially a redefinition of the franchise’s identity and approach. For decades, St. Louis has positioned itself as a model of stability and sustainable success in Major League Baseball, rarely engaging in the kind of dramatic teardowns now apparently underway. How fans respond to this new direction, and whether it ultimately leads to another period of Cardinals success, remains to be seen. What’s clear is that the trading of Sonny Gray appears to be just the beginning of a transformative winter in St. Louis, with more significant changes likely on the horizon as the organization charts a new course for the future.
