Aaron Nola’s Struggles and the Phillies’ Playoff Race
The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in a critical position as September baseball unfolds, sitting 5½ games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the National League’s top seed following Wednesday night’s disappointing loss. This defeat, which came despite having veteran pitcher Aaron Nola on the mound, highlights a season of inconsistency for both the team and their typically reliable starter. The Phillies had taken the first game from Milwaukee on Monday, generating optimism for the series, but Wednesday’s performance—particularly Nola’s difficult first inning where he surrendered five earned runs—underscored ongoing concerns about their rotation as October approaches.
Nola’s 2023 season has been far from the standard he set during his All-Star years. Currently carrying a troubling 6.78 ERA across 13 starts, his performance raises questions about the Phillies’ playoff readiness. The struggles have been particularly pronounced in first innings, a pattern that manager Rob Thomson acknowledged after Wednesday’s game. “Well, I think he was still getting his feet underneath him the first couple (starts),” Thomson told The Athletic’s Charlotte Varnes. “And then the last couple were actually pretty good, aside from the first inning. Kind of the same thing (Wednesday). So, we’ve got to figure out the first inning.” This insight reveals the coaching staff’s awareness of a specific pattern that, if corrected, could transform Nola’s effectiveness in the crucial weeks ahead.
Despite these challenges, there’s context worth considering. Nola has battled injuries throughout the season, which likely explains some of his performance issues. Thomson remains confident in his former All-Star, believing that Nola is still adjusting after returning from his injury layoff. This vote of confidence isn’t merely blind faith—it’s grounded in Nola’s extensive track record of success throughout his career with Philadelphia. The right-hander has long been a cornerstone of the Phillies’ rotation, and his experience in high-pressure situations makes him a valuable asset even during periods of inconsistency. What’s particularly concerning, however, is the timing of these struggles, as the Phillies need their starting pitching to stabilize heading into what they hope will be an extended postseason run.
The stakes for Philadelphia couldn’t be higher. While catching Milwaukee for the top seed seems increasingly unlikely, the Phillies entered Thursday with a two-game cushion over the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL’s second seed. This positioning is crucial because securing one of the top two seeds would allow Philadelphia to bypass the wild card series entirely—a significant advantage that provides extra rest and lets them set up their pitching rotation optimally for the Division Series. The team’s situation has become more precarious following the injury to ace Zack Wheeler, placing even greater importance on Nola’s ability to rediscover his form. As Thomson suggested, if the Phillies can identify and correct what’s causing Nola’s first-inning troubles, they might unlock the version of him that has been so valuable in previous seasons.
What makes this moment particularly challenging for Philadelphia is the convergence of Nola’s struggles with Wheeler’s absence. The rotation that was supposed to be a strength has suddenly become a question mark at the worst possible time. The team’s front office and coaching staff now face the difficult task of determining whether Nola’s issues are mechanical, physical, or perhaps mental—and finding solutions with limited time before the postseason. Though Thomson’s public comments express confidence, behind closed doors there must be intense analysis occurring to help their veteran pitcher overcome these first-inning difficulties. For Nola himself, these struggles likely feel especially frustrating given his history of consistency and excellence on the mound.
As the regular season winds down, the Phillies face a critical stretch that will determine not only their seeding but potentially their playoff fortunes. If Nola can resolve his first-inning problems and return to form, Philadelphia’s rotation could still be formidable despite Wheeler’s injury. The team’s ability to diagnose and address these issues will be a significant factor in their October aspirations. For now, Thomson and the Phillies continue to express faith in their veteran starter, hoping that his extended track record of success will ultimately prove more relevant than his recent struggles. With the postseason looming and the race for optimal playoff positioning tightening, Philadelphia needs Nola to rediscover the effectiveness that has made him one of the organization’s most reliable arms over the years—and they need it to happen quickly.
