The United States faces a growing threat of long-range missile attacks, including those carrying nuclear warheads, from adversaries like Russia, China, and North Korea. A report by Robert Soofer, a former Trump administration official, argues that the U.S. is inadequately prepared for such a scenario and proposes a roadmap for enhancing homeland missile defense. The report highlights the limitations of the current strategy, which primarily relies on the threat of retaliation as a deterrent, and advocates for a more robust defense system.
Soofer recommends a multi-pronged approach to strengthen U.S. missile defenses. In the short term, he suggests increasing the inventory of interceptor missiles, including the Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs) and the SM-3 Block IIA missiles. This would bolster the existing Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system and the Navy’s Aegis system, providing more opportunities to intercept incoming missiles. Soofer also calls for an annual increase of $4 to $5 billion in the Missile Defense Agency’s budget dedicated to homeland defense, representing approximately 1% of the defense budget.
Beyond immediate measures, the report advocates for long-term investments in cutting-edge technologies. These include space-based interceptors, a controversial concept, and directed-energy weapons like lasers, which are nearing operational deployment in several countries. Space-based interceptors would offer the advantage of targeting missiles in their boost phase, providing a crucial early-stage defense. These advanced technologies would create a layered defense system capable of countering more sophisticated threats.
President-elect Trump’s pledge to “build an Iron Dome” over the U.S., while evocative of Israel’s successful short-range rocket defense system, needs a tailored approach to address the unique challenges faced by the U.S. Given the vast geographical expanse of the U.S. and the nature of potential threats, a direct replication of the Iron Dome is impractical. Soofer’s proposals, focusing on a multi-layered defense system, offer a more realistic interpretation of the “Iron Dome” concept for the U.S., enhancing its ability to intercept a range of missile types.
The evolving threat landscape requires the U.S. to prepare for various attack scenarios. These range from a limited strike by North Korea to a massive, coordinated assault by Russia and China involving hundreds or thousands of missiles, electromagnetic weapons, and jamming tactics. The report emphasizes the need to defend against both overwhelming attacks and limited, “coercive” strikes designed to deter U.S. intervention in conflicts or support for allies. Such coercive strikes could target U.S. nuclear forces and command centers to cripple retaliatory capabilities, highlighting the need to protect these critical assets.
The report further underscores the necessity for the U.S. to adopt a proactive and integrated defense strategy. This includes integrating the GBIs, SM-3 missiles, and THAAD interceptors with associated radar and sensor technology. Increased production of SM-3 missiles is another crucial step. Boost-phase missile defense, which targets missiles during their initial launch phase, should also be considered, potentially involving fighter jets, drones, or lasers. Collaboration with South Korea, which is developing preemptive strike capabilities, could also prove beneficial. Furthermore, exploring space-based sensors and interceptors is vital for countering the growing ICBM threat posed by Russia and China, although the weaponization of space raises concerns about a new arms race. It is important to note that Russia and China are also advancing their missile defense capabilities, potentially impacting the military balance and complicating U.S. strategic options. This highlights the urgent need for the U.S. to invest in advanced missile defense technologies to maintain its security and deter potential adversaries.
