As the MLB offseason approaches, the spotlight is on Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, two of the highest-profile free agents. Soto, widely regarded as the premier position player available, has generated significant interest, particularly from the Boston Red Sox, who are looking to revamp after three subpar seasons. Boston’s President of baseball operations, Craig Breslow, is actively pursuing Soto while also searching for a front-line starter to fortify the rotation. Corbin Burnes stands out as the best starting pitcher on the market and would be a considerable asset for any team. His impressive statistics, including a 21.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) since 2020—ranking second among starting pitchers—underscore his potential impact.
Burnes’s track record further amplifies his desirability; he owns a 2.88 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP across over 800 innings, showcasing his consistency and ability to dominate opposing batters. Notably, he has been an All-Star for the last four years and finished in the top ten in Cy Young voting for five consecutive seasons, including winning the prestigious award in 2021 while playing for the Milwaukee Brewers. His remarkable performance has made him a target for numerous teams looking to shore up their pitching staff as they head into next season.
The Baltimore Orioles acquired Burnes from the Brewers in February, trading a package that included shortstop Joey Ortiz and left-handed pitcher DL Hall, along with a competitive balance pick. However, after only one season in Baltimore, speculation arises about the Orioles’ intention to retain him. Reports indicate a divide among insiders regarding Burnes’s future, with some believing that he will stay with the Orioles and others predicting a shift to a rival team, particularly the Red Sox. This uncertainty adds a layer of intrigue to the offseason as teams strategize their moves.
Analysis from experts such as Pete Caldera and Andrew Tredinnick points to differing predictions surrounding Burnes’s destination. Caldera suggests that the left-hander could end up with the Boston Red Sox, as they look to invest in a top-tier pitcher to support their aspirations. Tredinnick, conversely, believes Burnes will opt to remain with the Orioles. Both predictions reflect the volatility prevalent in major league free agency, where player movements can significantly shift the landscape of competition.
If Caldera’s predictions hold water, there could be an intriguing financial dynamic at play. He anticipates that the Red Sox could direct funds initially allocated for Soto into signing Burnes instead. This outcome would illustrate how teams adapt their strategies based on player availability and market dynamics, often operating under tight budgets or specific resource allocations. The Athletic’s Tim Britton also projects that Burnes is in line for a lucrative seven-year deal worth approximately $217 million, demonstrating the high premium placed on elite pitching talent in today’s game.
Overall, as the offseason unfolds, the potential drama surrounding Burnes and Soto will serve as a focal point for fans and analysts alike. The decisions made by the Orioles and Red Sox—and how they navigate their respective pursuits—could have lasting implications on both teams. If Burnes were to land in Boston, the Red Sox would gain a significant advantage as they seek to recapture their stature in the competitive American League East. Meanwhile, the Orioles will need to carefully consider their options to maintain momentum from the previous season, balancing short-term needs with long-term strategy in building a championship-caliber roster.
