Recent air accidents, particularly the Azerbaijan Airlines crash in Kazakhstan and the Jeju Air crash landing in South Korea, have understandably shaken public confidence in air travel. These tragedies, coupled with other incidents throughout 2024, including a fatal crash in Tokyo, a mid-air structural failure on a Boeing aircraft, a fatal Voepass crash in Brazil, and several turbulence-related incidents, have contributed to a heightened sense of anxiety among travelers. 2024 marked the highest number of aviation fatalities since 2018, with 318 lives lost. However, a broader perspective reveals a more nuanced picture of aviation safety.
Despite the recent tragedies, air travel remains remarkably safe. 2023 saw zero commercial jet fatalities, a testament to the industry’s commitment to safety. Furthermore, the aviation industry transported 5 billion passengers worldwide in 2023, illustrating the sheer scale of operations. Statistical analysis supports this claim. Data from MIT indicates that the risk of dying in an air accident is currently 1 in 13.7 million passenger boardings, a significant improvement from the 1 in 7.9 million risk a decade earlier, and a dramatic drop from the 1 in 350,000 risk half a century ago. This ongoing improvement demonstrates a continuous trend toward enhanced safety in the aviation industry.
Human error remains a significant contributor to aviation accidents, accounting for up to 80% of incidents, with pilot error specifically responsible for 53%. Mechanical failure, in contrast, accounts for only 21% of accidents. The critical phases of takeoff and landing are statistically the most accident-prone periods of flight. Both the December 2024 crashes occurred during landing, although different contributing factors were involved. The Jeju Air incident involved a suspected bird strike, followed by a landing without deployed landing gear. The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, is suspected to have resulted from being hit by Russian air defenses, leading to depressurization and loss of control. The investigations into both incidents are complex and ongoing.
The Azerbaijan Airlines crash raises serious concerns about the risks associated with flying over or near conflict zones. The incident echoes the tragic downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014 over Ukraine, highlighting the potential dangers posed by geopolitical instability. While organizations like the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issue warnings and bulletins regarding conflict zones, they lack the authority to close airspace. The onus is on airlines to conduct thorough risk assessments and make informed decisions about flight routes. While many Western airlines have ceased operations over Russian airspace, several Middle Eastern and Asian carriers continue to operate in the region, accepting a higher level of risk.
Every air accident, while tragic, ultimately contributes to improving aviation safety. Detailed investigations are conducted following each incident, meticulously analyzing the events leading up to the crash. Data from the flight data recorder (FDR) and cockpit voice recorder (CVR), commonly known as “black boxes,” provide invaluable insights into the final moments of the flight. Accident investigators gather evidence and analyze data to determine the root causes of the crash. Preliminary reports are typically released within weeks, while final reports take longer due to the complexity of the investigations. Based on these findings, recommendations are made to prevent similar incidents in the future.
The aviation industry’s commitment to learning from past mistakes is a key driver of its impressive safety record. Historical examples abound: the 1956 Grand Canyon mid-air collision led to advancements in air traffic control; the 1996 TWA Flight 800 explosion resulted in fuel tank modifications; the 9/11 attacks prompted the creation of the TSA; and the disappearance of MH370 led to real-time aircraft tracking. This continuous cycle of improvement, driven by rigorous investigation and subsequent implementation of safety recommendations, is fundamental to maintaining and enhancing aviation safety. The collaborative efforts of manufacturers, airlines, regulators, and individuals play a crucial role in upholding high safety standards globally. While recent accidents may raise concerns, the aviation industry remains steadfast in its commitment to safety and constantly strives to minimize risks and prevent future tragedies.
