The year 2024 seemingly brought turbulence to the forefront of public consciousness, marked by a heightened number of reported injuries on turbulent flights. A tragic incident on a Singapore Airlines flight resulted in a passenger fatality, the first turbulence-related death on a commercial flight since 1997. This underscores the potential risks associated with turbulence, despite its classification as a common occurrence in aviation. Data from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reveals that between 2009 and 2023, turbulence remained the leading cause of in-flight injuries, resulting in 37 serious passenger injuries and 146 crew injuries. While turbulence can occur anywhere, certain geographical and atmospheric conditions elevate the likelihood of its occurrence, leading to the identification of specific routes with higher turbulence frequencies.
Analysis conducted by Turbli, a turbulence tracking website, has pinpointed the most turbulent flight routes in Europe, revealing a concentration of these routes originating from or terminating in Switzerland. This prominence is attributed to the influence of the Alps, with eight out of the top ten most turbulent routes either passing over or in close proximity to this mountain range. Turbli employs the eddy dissipation rate (EDR), a standardized metric used by international aviation organizations like ICAO and WMO, to quantify turbulence intensity. The EDR values for the most turbulent European routes range from 14.67 to 16.07, categorized as “light” turbulence according to Turbli’s classification. Globally, the most turbulent routes are situated in South America, traversing the Andes mountain range, with the highest EDR recorded at 24.68.
The elevated turbulence levels near mountainous regions are primarily attributed to the complex interaction between wind patterns and terrain. As wind currents encounter mountain ranges, they are forced upwards, creating updrafts. These updrafts often encounter stable air layers at higher altitudes, causing them to descend rapidly as downdrafts. The disruption of horizontal airflow by high peaks generates “mountain waves,” characterized by oscillations on the downwind side, leading to substantial vertical currents that can significantly impact aircraft stability. Furthermore, temperature and humidity play a crucial role in turbulence intensity. Warmer and more humid air tends to exacerbate turbulence, explaining the higher turbulence levels experienced over the Andes compared to the Alps.
While modern aircraft are engineered to withstand even extreme turbulence, the same level of resilience does not apply to passengers. A recurring theme in the 2024 turbulence incidents was the significantly higher injury rate among unrestrained passengers and crew compared to those securely fastened in their seats. This emphasizes the critical importance of adhering to safety guidelines and remaining seated with seatbelts fastened throughout the flight. The impact of climate change on turbulence is also a growing concern. Experts posit that increasing temperature extremes and more intense, unpredictable storms are contributing to a rise in extreme turbulence events. Projections from the University of Reading suggest a potential doubling of turbulence frequency by 2050, highlighting the need for proactive measures to mitigate these risks.
The aviation industry is actively working to improve turbulence prediction and avoidance. The IATA’s Turbulence Aware Platform, launched in 2018, facilitates data sharing among airlines, contributing to enhanced turbulence forecasting and integration into cockpit instruments and flight planning software. Pilots also rely on advanced weather radar systems and real-time communication to identify and navigate around turbulent areas. However, certain types of turbulence, such as clear-air turbulence, lack visual cues and pose significant challenges for detection and avoidance. The National Transportation Safety Bureau (NTSB) reports that in 28% of turbulence-related incidents, the flight crew received no prior warning, emphasizing the inherent unpredictability of this phenomenon.
In light of the inherent risks and the increasing frequency of turbulence, passenger safety remains paramount. Consistent adherence to safety protocols, particularly the practice of keeping seatbelts fastened throughout the flight, is crucial for mitigating the risk of injury during turbulence encounters. While the aviation industry continues to refine its turbulence prediction and avoidance capabilities, the unpredictable nature of turbulence necessitates proactive safety measures from passengers. The key message remains: stay buckled up for a safer flight experience.
