Google’s AI-Powered Shopping Revolution: A Challenge to Amazon’s E-Commerce Dominance

The Birth of Universal Commerce Protocol: Google’s Vision for AI Shopping

In a significant move that could reshape online retail, Google has unveiled its Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), a new open technical standard designed to transform how consumers shop through AI interfaces. Announced at the National Retail Federation conference in New York, UCP aims to create a foundation for “agentic commerce” – a concept where AI assistants can complete complex shopping tasks on behalf of consumers. Google CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted the transformative potential, stating, “AI agents will be a big part of how we shop in the not-so-distant future.” What makes this initiative particularly noteworthy is the coalition of major retailers backing it, including Walmart, Target, Shopify, and Etsy – with one conspicuous absence: Amazon. This new protocol establishes a shared “language” allowing AI agents to securely access product information, pricing, availability, promotions, loyalty programs, and checkout flows across multiple retailers without requiring custom integrations for each platform.

The Potential Impact on Amazon’s E-Commerce Empire

While Amazon has dominated online shopping infrastructure for years, Google’s UCP offers an alternative pathway that could fundamentally alter how product discovery occurs online. Rather than shoppers beginning their journey inside Amazon’s ecosystem, UCP could redirect consumers toward competitors at crucial decision-making moments. This doesn’t necessarily threaten Amazon’s core strengths in logistics, price competitiveness, or convenience, as Maju Kuruvilla, CEO of Seattle-based agentic commerce startup Spangle explains: “This doesn’t change Amazon’s core advantage — price, selection, and convenience. This is more of an additional discovery channel.” The significance of this shift is underscored by Adobe Digital Insights’ report that AI-driven traffic to retail sites surged by 693% year-over-year during the 2025 holiday season, with AI-referred visitors demonstrating higher conversion rates and longer site engagement than traditional traffic sources.

The Practical Implications of UCP for Shoppers and Retailers

Google’s implementation of UCP will soon allow shoppers using Google’s AI Mode in Search or the Gemini app to see buy buttons on eligible products from participating U.S. retailers. Consumers can complete purchases using payment information already stored in Google Wallet, with PayPal integration planned for future updates. Importantly, Google emphasizes that retailers remain “the seller of record” and maintain control over customer relationships throughout the process. This approach aligns with similar initiatives from other tech giants – Microsoft recently launched Copilot Checkout for in-assistant purchases, while OpenAI partnered with Stripe to develop the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) enabling transactions within ChatGPT. For retailers, UCP eliminates the need to build and maintain custom integrations with multiple AI platforms, potentially democratizing access to AI-powered commerce channels that might otherwise be available only to the largest players with extensive development resources.

Expert Skepticism: Will Agentic Commerce Transform Consumer Behavior?

Despite the excitement surrounding UCP, industry analysts remain cautious about how quickly agentic commerce will transform shopping behaviors. Juozas Kaziukenas, an independent e-commerce analyst, warns that many forecasts assume unrealistically rapid adoption, pointing to OpenAI research showing that only 37% of products returned by ChatGPT’s shopping results are relevant – a figure he calls “shockingly low.” Emily Pfeiffer, principal analyst at Forrester, acknowledges the importance of developing standards but emphasizes we’re still in the early stages: “It’s still very early, the experiences are pretty poor, and adoption is very low. We won’t say that forever, but behavior change takes time and it won’t happen if the shopping experiences don’t improve.” The fundamental challenge remains improving AI’s capacity for product discovery, curation, personalization, and recommendations – capabilities that remain rudimentary in most current AI tools compared to established e-commerce platforms.

Amazon’s Response and Strategic Position

Amazon’s response to these developments has been measured but strategic. While not publicly announcing support for open standards like UCP, the company continues developing its own AI shopping features, including the Rufus assistant and “Buy for Me” initiative. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has acknowledged that agentic commerce “has a chance to be really good for e-commerce” and indicated the company may partner with third-party agents eventually. However, he also highlighted current limitations, noting that agents “aren’t very good” at personalization and often display incorrect pricing and delivery information. Amazon’s cautious stance is backed by action – in November, the company sued Perplexity to prevent the startup from using its AI browser agent to make purchases on Amazon’s marketplace. This legal move signals Amazon’s intent to control how AI agents interact with its platform, even as it explores its own implementation of agentic commerce technologies.

The Future Landscape: Cooperation, Competition, and Consumer Adoption

The emerging agentic commerce landscape resembles what Kaziukenas describes as an “anti-Amazon alliance” – “Everyone is forming partnerships with everyone else — everyone except Amazon.” However, several analysts believe Amazon’s position remains secure. Scott Devitt of Wedbush emphasizes that consumer preferences for value, selection, and convenience won’t change: “AI will have implications for retail, but those tenets won’t change. I think Amazon and Walmart will continue to do well.” Sucharita Kodali from Forrester suggests that if agentic commerce does produce a dominant platform, that winner might ultimately pay Amazon billions for cooperation – similar to how “Google pays Apple” for search placement. The true test will be consumer adoption. As shopping increasingly begins outside traditional retail websites, the companies that can deliver the most seamless, accurate, and beneficial AI shopping experiences will likely shape how commerce evolves in the coming years. Whether UCP becomes the foundation for this new paradigm or simply one of many competing standards remains to be seen, but Google’s initiative represents a significant step toward a future where AI fundamentally changes how we discover and purchase products online.