Republicans Target Democratic-Held Seats in Industrial Midwest Following Trump’s Victory
In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, Republicans are strategically focusing on congressional districts where an interesting political dynamic has emerged: areas where Donald Trump won the presidential vote, but Democratic representatives maintained their seats in Congress. With Democrats holding a slim 219-212 majority in the House of Representatives, these “crossover districts” represent prime opportunities for Republicans to flip seats in the upcoming midterm elections. Two districts in particular have caught the GOP’s attention: Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, currently represented by Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congress, and Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, held by freshman Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet.
Former Trump political director Brian Jack, now a freshman Republican congressman from Georgia serving as deputy chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), recently visited both districts as part of the party’s candidate recruitment efforts. Speaking from Toledo, Jack expressed his belief that both representatives are increasingly out of step with their constituents. He highlighted Kaptur’s long tenure—42 years representing Toledo—while noting her declining vote percentages. In 2016, Kaptur won with a commanding 68% of the vote, but by 2024, that number had dropped to just 48%. Jack attributes this decline to her opposition to Trump, particularly her votes to impeach him twice, despite Trump carrying her district with 53% of the vote in the presidential race. Ohio itself has undergone a political transformation, shifting from its historical position as a “perennial bellwether swing state” to consistently supporting Trump in the last three presidential elections.
The Republican field for Ohio’s 9th District features several candidates, including former GOP nominee and four-term state Rep. Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Alea Nadeem, and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wayne Kinsel. State Senate President Rob McColley is also considered a potential contender. During his visit to Ohio, Jack met with local party officials and all declared and potential candidates, expressing enthusiasm about the quality of the Republican field. In Michigan’s 8th District, U.S. Navy veteran Amir Hassan is currently the only declared Republican candidate challenging McDonald Rivet. Jack suggested that as voters become more familiar with McDonald Rivet’s voting record, particularly her votes against Trump’s policies, they may question her representation of a district that “overwhelmingly elected” Trump.
Jack draws a stark contrast between the enthusiasm for the Trump-Vance administration and Democratic opposition. He recounted hosting Vice President JD Vance in his Georgia hometown, where over a thousand supporters gathered despite sweltering 90-degree heat, compared to fewer than 50 protesters in swing states. As Democrats campaign against Trump’s “big, beautiful bill”—a package that includes tax cuts, green energy reform, and border security—Jack emphasized the importance of Republicans promoting “not just the victories of the bill, but the details within it,” describing it as an embodiment of Trump’s campaign promises.
When asked for comment on these Republican efforts, McDonald Rivet’s campaign responded that she is “working every day to make life more affordable for working families” and will “work with anyone, regardless of party” to achieve that goal. They highlighted her bipartisan bills aimed at lowering costs for essentials like medicine, taxes, and eggs, while emphasizing her commitment to fight “against any agenda that prioritizes billionaires over lower costs for working people.” At the time of reporting, Rep. Kaptur and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had not responded to requests for comment on the Republican strategy targeting their districts.
The targeting of these industrial Midwest districts represents a broader Republican strategy for the midterms, focusing on areas where Trump’s popularity might help down-ballot candidates. Both districts—one held by one of the most senior Democrats in Congress and the other by a freshman representative—exemplify the changing political landscape in what was once considered the Democratic-leaning industrial heartland. As manufacturing communities continue to realign politically, these races will likely serve as important indicators of whether Trump’s appeal in these regions can translate to congressional gains for Republicans, potentially tipping the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
The upcoming battles in Toledo and Flint highlight the increasingly regional and demographic nature of American politics, where traditional party alignments continue to shift. Republicans hope to capitalize on Trump’s enduring popularity in working-class, industrial communities, while Democrats will need to emphasize their representatives’ independent records and focus on local issues that may distinguish them from national party positions. For voters in these districts, the elections will present a choice between long-serving or freshman Democratic representatives who emphasize their work on economic issues affecting working families, and Republican challengers who will likely align themselves closely with Trump’s policies and popularity in the region.
