New Jersey Governor’s Race Heats Up as Election Day Approaches

The race for New Jersey governor is entering its final stretch with both candidates expressing confidence as they make their final appeals to voters. Democratic nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are locked in what polls suggest could become a photo finish, despite New Jersey’s traditional Democratic advantage. With early voting about to begin and Election Day just around the corner, both campaigns are ramping up their efforts to mobilize supporters in what has become one of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests in the country.

Recent polls paint a competitive picture of the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Four major surveys released over the past two weeks—from Fox News, Quinnipiac University, Fairleigh Dickinson University, and Rutgers-Eagleton—all indicate that Ciattarelli has narrowed the gap with Sherrill. This tightening is particularly significant in a state where registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans, even amid a GOP surge in voter registration this decade. Ciattarelli appears optimistic about his chances, noting that “many of these polls have a dead heat” and pointing out that Republicans typically “under poll because we are the minority party.” He’s also highlighting endorsements from Democratic mayors across the state as evidence that “people want change.”

The Republican nominee, making his third consecutive run for New Jersey governor after nearly upsetting Murphy four years ago, has maintained a vigorous campaign schedule throughout the summer and fall. His events have drawn enthusiastic crowds in the closing weeks of the campaign, and he’s now focused on turning that energy into actual votes. “Early voting starts this Saturday. We turn out, we win. Let’s finish strong,” Ciattarelli urged his supporters. His campaign has received assistance from prominent MAGA figures including Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Rep. Byron Donalds, who’s considered a top contender for Florida governor next year. Former President Donald Trump is also scheduled to hold a tele-rally with Ciattarelli before Election Day, part of an effort to mobilize low-propensity Trump supporters who might not otherwise vote in an off-year election.

This strategy reflects a key calculation by the Ciattarelli campaign. As former Rahway GOP chair Patrick Cassio pointed out, “Four years ago, 400,000 Republicans didn’t vote… He picks up half of that, he wins. The math is pretty simple.” Ciattarelli himself believes that the closeness of the 2021 race has caused voters to pay more attention this time around. However, Sherrill has dismissed her opponent as “kind of a perennial candidate,” suggesting his repeated bids for governor haven’t gained traction with voters. The Democratic nominee, a U.S. Naval Academy graduate who flew helicopters during her military service and was first elected to Congress in 2018, has focused on building what she describes as “the biggest volunteer field program that anyone in New Jersey has ever run.”

Sherrill isn’t campaigning alone. Her appearances have featured prominent Democrats who may have presidential ambitions, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Perhaps most significantly, her campaign announced that former President Barack Obama—arguably the most popular Democrat in the country—will headline a rally with her in Newark on November 1, just days before Election Day. While Republicans have criticized Sherrill for what they characterize as a lack of energy on the campaign trail, she points to early indicators of success: “We’re seeing great returns on the vote by mails… We’re seeing a ton of energy on the ground.”

The intensifying New Jersey governor’s race exemplifies the high stakes of off-year elections, with both parties viewing the outcome as a potential bellwether for the national political climate. For Democrats, holding onto the governorship in a reliably blue state would provide reassurance about their electoral prospects. For Republicans, flipping New Jersey would represent a major victory and signal potential for broader gains in the 2026 midterms. The race has become particularly important as one of only two gubernatorial contests being held nationwide this year, drawing national attention and resources from both parties.

As early voting begins and Election Day approaches, both campaigns are emphasizing turnout operations that could make the difference in a close race. Ciattarelli’s team is focused on mobilizing Trump supporters who might otherwise sit out an off-year election, while Sherrill is leveraging a sophisticated ground game and high-profile Democratic surrogates to drive her voters to the polls. With registered Democrats still outnumbering Republicans in New Jersey, Sherrill retains structural advantages, but Ciattarelli’s momentum in recent polling and the energy at his campaign events suggest the race could indeed come down to the wire. In a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor in over a decade, the tightening polls and intense campaigning by both candidates highlight that neither party is taking the outcome for granted.