UAE-Backed Forces Advance into Yemen’s Oil-Rich Hadramout Province, Threatening Fragile Peace

Renewed Military Movement Signals Potential Escalation in Long-Dormant Conflict

In a significant development that threatens to unravel Yemen’s fragile peace, an armed faction supported by the United Arab Emirates has launched a military advance into Hadramout, the country’s oil-rich eastern province. This unexpected incursion marks a potentially dangerous escalation after years of relative stalemate in a conflict that has already created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Security analysts and humanitarian organizations are now warning that this strategic move could reignite widespread fighting across a country still struggling to recover from years of devastating war.

The operation, reportedly conducted by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces with evident Emirati backing, began advancing into key areas of Hadramout earlier this week, according to multiple sources on the ground. Local witnesses described convoys of well-equipped military vehicles bearing the insignia of UAE-trained units moving toward strategic oil installations and government buildings in the province. “What we’re seeing is a carefully orchestrated push into one of Yemen’s most valuable territories,” said Ibrahim Hassan, a regional security analyst who has been monitoring the situation. “Hadramout isn’t just any province – it contains approximately 80 percent of Yemen’s oil reserves and represents crucial economic leverage in any future political settlement.” The timing of this military maneuver has raised questions about broader geopolitical calculations in the region, particularly as international diplomatic efforts had recently shown modest progress toward a more permanent resolution of the conflict.

The strategic significance of Hadramout cannot be overstated in Yemen’s complex power equation. Beyond its vast petroleum resources, the province occupies a vital geographical position with an extensive coastline along the Arabian Sea, making it a potential commercial gateway. For years, different factions have maintained an uneasy equilibrium in the region, with government forces nominally controlling major cities while tribal authorities and various militant groups held sway in other areas. The UAE, which initially entered the Yemen conflict as part of a Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels in the country’s north and west, has increasingly pursued an independent strategy focused on southern Yemen, where it has cultivated allies like the STC. “The Emiratis have consistently viewed southern Yemen as their sphere of influence,” explained Dr. Fatima Al-Qadhi, director of the Center for Strategic Studies in Aden. “Control over Hadramout’s energy resources would significantly strengthen their hand in determining Yemen’s future political arrangement, potentially supporting a divided Yemen with an autonomous or independent south.”

International Response and Humanitarian Concerns Mount as Military Tensions Escalate

The international community has responded with growing alarm to the military developments in Hadramout, with the United Nations Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, issuing an urgent call for restraint. “Any military escalation at this sensitive juncture threatens to undermine years of difficult progress toward peace,” Grundberg stated in a press release, emphasizing that “control over natural resources must be determined through peaceful political processes, not military action.” The United States, which has backed the Saudi-led coalition while simultaneously pushing for peace negotiations, expressed “deep concern” through State Department channels, urging all parties to return to dialogue. Meanwhile, humanitarian organizations operating in Yemen have warned that renewed conflict could devastate already fragile systems supporting the civilian population.

The human cost of renewed fighting would be catastrophic for Yemen’s civilian population, which continues to endure what the UN describes as one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters. “After years of war, approximately 21.6 million Yemenis – two-thirds of the population – require humanitarian assistance just to survive,” explained Maryam Suliman, Yemen country director for the International Rescue Committee. “Any expansion of military operations threatens to disrupt the limited humanitarian access we currently have and could trigger new waves of displacement.” Hadramout had been relatively stable compared to other parts of Yemen, functioning as a safe haven for internally displaced people fleeing violence elsewhere in the country. The province hosts over 300,000 displaced persons in makeshift camps and urban settings, according to UN figures. Health infrastructure in the region is already strained beyond capacity, with fewer than half of Yemen’s healthcare facilities fully operational after years of conflict, economic collapse, and lack of investment.

Complex Power Dynamics: UAE Strategy and Regional Implications

The UAE’s strategic calculus in supporting this military push appears multifaceted, reflecting both immediate tactical objectives and longer-term regional ambitions. Despite officially scaling back its direct military involvement in Yemen in 2019, the Emirates has maintained and strengthened proxy forces that advance its interests in southern Yemen. These include the STC and various other militias collectively known as the Security Belt Forces. “The Emiratis have invested years and significant resources in building these proxy forces,” noted Jonathan Marshall, a Middle East security analyst at the International Crisis Group. “They’ve trained them, equipped them, and embedded advisors – creating effective fighting units that extend UAE influence without requiring a large Emirati military footprint.” This approach aligns with the Emirates’ broader regional strategy of projecting power through military partnerships and proxy relationships rather than direct intervention.

The timing of the Hadramout operation may also reflect shifting dynamics in the wider Middle East. As Saudi Arabia has increasingly signaled interest in disengaging from the Yemen conflict through negotiations with the Houthi movement, the UAE appears to be positioning itself to secure its own interests independent of Riyadh’s approach. “We’re potentially seeing a divergence in Gulf state strategies toward Yemen,” explained Dr. Elham Manea, professor of political science specializing in Middle Eastern affairs. “While the Saudis are prioritizing border security and a negotiated settlement with the Houthis, the Emiratis are focused on securing economic assets and political influence in the south.” This divergence could complicate international peace efforts, which have largely centered on mediating between the Saudi-backed government and the Houthis, while paying less attention to southern factions and their foreign backers.

Economic Stakes: Hadramout’s Oil Resources and Strategic Position

Hadramout’s economic value extends beyond its immediate oil production, representing a crucial piece in Yemen’s potential post-conflict recovery. The province contains the Masila Basin, Yemen’s largest oil field, which at its peak produced approximately 175,000 barrels per day – modest by Gulf standards but significant for Yemen’s shattered economy. Even during the conflict years, limited extraction has continued, with revenues theoretically flowing to the internationally recognized government. However, control over these resources has been contested and revenues often diverted. “Whoever controls Hadramout’s oil fields will have tremendous leverage in any future political settlement,” said energy consultant Hassan Al-Jabri. “These resources could either fund reconstruction and development or fuel continued conflict, depending on who controls them and how transparently they’re managed.”

Beyond petroleum, Hadramout possesses strategic ports including Al-Mukalla, which could serve as alternative maritime trade routes to those in western Yemen currently influenced by the Houthi movement. The province’s geographical position also offers access to shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. “This isn’t just about current oil production, which has been significantly diminished during the conflict,” explained maritime security expert Captain Sarah Johnson. “It’s about future economic potential and strategic positioning. Hadramout could be developed into a significant energy export hub with the right investment, connecting Yemen’s resources to Asian markets.” This potential makes the province particularly valuable not just within Yemen’s internal politics but in broader regional economic calculations.

Path Forward: Diplomatic Efforts and Prospects for Peace

As military tensions escalate in Hadramout, the immediate focus of international diplomacy has shifted to preventing a full-scale resumption of conflict. UN-led efforts are attempting to establish communication channels between advancing forces and those currently controlling areas of the province to avoid direct confrontation. However, the deeper challenge remains addressing the fundamental power imbalances and competing interests that continue to fragment Yemen. “What we’re witnessing isn’t just a military move but a statement about the failure of existing peace processes to address the interests of all parties,” noted former US Ambassador to Yemen Gerald Feierstein. “Any sustainable solution must account for southern grievances and aspirations while also recognizing the legitimate concerns of all Yemeni regions and communities.”

The path toward de-escalation will require engagement not only with Yemeni factions but with their regional backers, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Recent Saudi-led diplomatic initiatives had shown promise in reducing violence between government forces and the Houthis, but had not fully addressed the complex dynamics in southern Yemen. “Without a comprehensive approach that brings all major players to the table, including the UAE and the southern factions they support, we risk seeing Yemen fragment into competing zones of influence backed by different regional powers,” warned Dr. Ibrahim Al-Sakaf of the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. “The international community must pivot quickly to expand diplomatic efforts beyond the north-south divide that has dominated peace talks so far.” As military movements continue in Hadramout, the window for preventing a new chapter of Yemen’s tragic conflict may be narrowing, threatening to plunge millions of civilians back into the crossfire of regional power politics.