India and the United States are navigating an era of unprecedented closeness, yet their relationship has recently faced some extraordinary challenges. Over the past year, two major legal crises gripped the diplomatic stage: U.S. allegations of an Indian government-led assassination plot against an American citizen, and fraud and bribery charges against Gautam Adani, a premier Indian business magnate and close ally of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Yet, despite these potential derailments, the ties between the two countries remain robust.
This resilience has been largely seen as a testament to how far U.S.-India relations have evolved, especially since the end of the Cold War era, when mutual suspicions and periodic tensions—like U.S. sanctions following India’s 1998 nuclear tests—defined their dynamic. Today, their collaboration is viewed as vital, particularly as the world seeks a counterweight to China’s growing influence. Ambassador Eric Garcetti optimistically summarized the moment, saying, “There is nothing big enough to threaten the trajectory of U.S.-India relations. It’s incredibly resilient and almost inevitable.”
### Strength in Pragmatism: The Biden Era of U.S.-India Relations
The Biden administration doubled down on strengthening U.S.-India ties, advocating for deeper cooperation in defense, technology, and manufacturing sectors. This renewed emphasis came with strategic objectives tied to counteracting China’s rise. India, now the world’s most populous nation and a technology powerhouse, represents an invaluable partner to diversify global supply chains—a priority not only for the U.S. but also for other economic powers.
This strategic collaboration has transcended issues that would have triggered deeper fissures in less fortified relationships, including allegations of Indian government agents conspiring to assassinate an American separatist advocate. The Biden administration decided to address the dispute with quiet diplomacy, choosing not to amplify it into a public spat. New Delhi acknowledged Washington’s demands for accountability, launching an inquiry and committing to future reforms to prevent such incidents. According to Garcetti, this episode became a “gut check” moment that tested and ultimately deepened bilateral trust.
As leverage for broader cooperation, India’s willingness to address U.S. concerns—even amid heightened nationalist voices accusing Western interference—was seen as a step toward preserving its international partnerships and mitigating fallout. Garcetti noted, “Trust is the basis of everything,” framing these events as a challenge that fortified the relationship instead of weakening it.
### A New Chapter: Seasoned Obstacles and New Beginnings
While political alignment has been evident, economic matters remain a key sticking point. Under President Donald Trump, India largely benefited from his close rapport with PM Modi, who hosted large-scale public events featuring Trump in both Gujarat and Texas. Yet, Trump’s unpredictable “America First” approach left Indian officials cautious. In his upcoming term, there are concerns about his predilection for tariffs and transactional diplomacy. Mistaken optimism could backfire: Indian economist Amita Batra warned, for example, of possible tariff hikes against India, even as New Delhi attempts to navigate terms favorable to its growing economy.
Another point of friction relates to immigration. Indians constitute the third-largest group of undocumented immigrants in the U.S., and any mass deportation efforts under Trump could cause embarrassment for Modi’s government. While Modi’s personal charisma and India’s steadily growing political influence in the U.S. may temper such tensions, analysts believe these issues will remain a fragile dimension of bilateral relations that leaders will need to tread carefully.
### Beyond Politics: Challenges in Global Supply Chains
The U.S. has touted India as a potential alternative to China’s dominance in global manufacturing, but the reality on the ground tells a more complex story. While India has made strides—15% of iPhone production now occurs in the country—its high tariff rates and a complicated regulatory landscape continue to deter foreign investors. Countries like Vietnam, Taiwan, and Mexico have reaped larger benefits from the global pivot away from China, as they offer lower tariffs and easier pathways for businesses to set up operations.
Ambassador Garcetti praised India’s rapid achievements since opening up its economy in the early 1990s but noted that its full potential remains untapped. “Where India is leaving a lot of progress…on the table,” he said, “is figuring out a better way to make it seamless and frictionless to invest here for export.” India’s tariff environment, he emphasized, continues to be one of the highest globally, which deters companies looking for cost-effective business hubs.
This barrier is especially pressing considering India’s need to sustain job creation for its massive population. Although leaders in New Delhi take heart in incremental reforms, as Garcetti diplomatically put it, “If [India’s progress] is still double or 10 times your competitor’s…companies are like water. They flow where gravity takes them.”
### The Adani Controversy: A Thorn in Rising Partnerships?
Adding complexity is the U.S. Justice Department’s investigation into Gautam Adani, a figure deeply intertwined with India’s current economic trajectory and Modi’s governance. The case against Adani—accusing him of fraud and bribery—sparked nationalistic uproar in India. Critics framed the development as the West’s attempt to suppress India’s rise. However, the Modi government strategically downplayed the issue, signaling its intent to prevent the controversy from boiling over onto its broader relationship with Washington.
Analysts argue that the delicate handling of these cases—both Adani’s and the alleged assassination plot—underscores how critical pragmatism is in preserving U.S.-India engagement. Even as doubts or issues arise, ensuring that they do not overshadow core strategic aims appears central to both governments’ approach.
### A People’s Relationship: Culture and Diplomacy in Action
Amid all the high-stakes geopolitics, Garcetti emphasized that the U.S.-India relationship isn’t confined to government; it’s also driven by people-to-people connections. From Indian students flooding U.S. universities to the growing clout of the Indian-American diaspora, softer avenues of engagement ensure the partnership flourishes beyond the headlines.
Garcetti’s tenure as ambassador reflected this emphasis. He embedded himself in India’s cultural fabric—attending cricket matches, exploring local cuisines, and even performing onstage with jazz legends. Yet, his personable diplomacy could only go so far. By the time he took up Indian dancing at a Diwali celebration, serious geopolitical challenges swirled in the background, demanding more than symbolic gestures to sustain goodwill between the nations.
### The Long Game: Strategic Depth Outweighs Immediate Crises
Ultimately, U.S.-India relations in this new era exemplify what many analysts see as the most significant global partnership of the century. With overlapping priorities—countering China, stabilizing the Indo-Pacific, and molding a multi-polar world order—their alignment feels almost “inevitable,” to borrow Garcetti’s sentiment. Yet the pace at which they achieve their shared goals remains uncertain.
The current challenges highlight both the depth and fragility of their relationship. Navigating the unpredictability of Trump’s return, persistent economic dissatisfactions, and rising nationalist narratives will require deft handling by leaders on both sides. Meanwhile, continued cooperation in newer arenas—like artificial intelligence, defense technology, and clean energy—offers hope that the partnership’s momentum will remain a driving force in global affairs.
While India’s potential as a global manufacturing hub continues to face hurdles, its strategic importance outweighs these immediate challenges. Both Washington and New Delhi understand that their collaboration is bigger than any one incident or figure. And if recent diplomatic storms have shown anything, it’s that this partnership, though imperfect, is built to endure.
