China’s East Coast Missile Buildup Signals Growing Threat to Taiwan and U.S. Forces in Asia
Strategic Military Expansion Transforms Coastal Regions into Launch Platforms
In a dramatic escalation of military capabilities along its eastern seaboard, China is systematically transforming coastal regions into sophisticated missile launch platforms capable of striking Taiwan and countering U.S. military presence throughout the Asia-Pacific region. This strategic buildup represents a cornerstone of President Xi Jinping’s broader geopolitical ambitions to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control while simultaneously challenging American military dominance in the region through overwhelming force projection.
The scale of this expansion is staggering by any measure. According to Pentagon assessments, China’s Rocket Force—the military branch responsible for both conventional and nuclear missile operations—has increased its missile stockpile by nearly 50 percent in just four years, amassing approximately 3,500 missiles. While intelligence agencies cannot precisely determine how many of these weapons are specifically positioned to target Taiwan, satellite imagery reveals that missile brigades along the eastern coast have substantially expanded their facilities, constructing larger bases with significantly more launch capabilities than previously documented.
“The Rocket Force is the crown jewel of the Chinese military,” explains Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. naval officer now with the Center for a New American Security. “It increases, by a huge degree, the range at which China can reach out suddenly with very little warning.” This rapid-response capability forms the backbone of China’s strategy for regional dominance and potential forced reunification with Taiwan.
Advanced Missile Technology Poses Unprecedented Threats to Regional Security
The missile buildup extends beyond mere numbers—China is deploying increasingly sophisticated weapons systems designed to overcome defensive countermeasures. Among the most concerning additions to China’s arsenal is the Dongfeng-17, a hypersonic missile capable of traveling at least five times the speed of sound while maintaining maneuverability to evade interception. Equally troubling is the deployment of the Dongfeng-26, ominously nicknamed the “Guam Express” for its presumed capability to strike U.S. military bases throughout the region.
The Pentagon estimates China possesses approximately 500 Dongfeng-26 missiles, which can be armed with either conventional or nuclear warheads and transported by road to complicate enemy tracking efforts. This dual-capability introduces dangerous strategic ambiguity, as Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow at Defense Priorities, notes: “Missiles are really the starting point for any type of military coercion campaign that China would use against Taiwan. For the Chinese, having an overwhelming number of missiles is also intended as a political signal—to Taiwan that there’s no point in fighting back, to the United States that you can’t intervene.”
China’s latest military parade in Beijing this September showcased this commitment to missile supremacy with the unveiling of new anti-ship missiles featuring apparent hypersonic capabilities alongside intercontinental nuclear missiles. These displays of force serve multiple purposes: demonstrating technological advancement, projecting strength, and attempting to intimidate Taiwan and its international partners through visual representations of overwhelming firepower.
Satellite Imagery Reveals Rapid Expansion of Key Missile Facilities
Detailed satellite imagery has documented the remarkable pace of China’s missile infrastructure development. One key facility, identified as Brigade 611 in Anhui Province—a unit personally visited by President Xi Jinping—has doubled in size in recent years. The expanded area includes what experts believe may be a comprehensive training complex with launch pads and simulated tunnel systems for operational practice.
“It’s a huge facility, a pretty cohesive training facility for practicing basically a full range of operations,” observes Decker Eveleth, a researcher at CNA Corporation who specializes in China’s missile forces. The base expansion features an unusually dense configuration of approximately three dozen missile launch pads—typically such installations would be more widely dispersed to reduce vulnerability to enemy strikes.
Similarly rapid development has been documented at Brigade 616 in Jiangxi Province, where satellite imagery shows that even during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, China was clearing and leveling farmland to construct new missile facilities. Within just 18 months, construction of a new site was nearly complete. According to Eveleth and other military analysts, Brigade 616 is being prepared specifically for deployment of the advanced Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile system, while Brigade 611 in Anhui is now deploying the longer-range Dongfeng-26 missiles.
Mobile Launch Strategy Creates Complex Deterrence and War-Fighting Capability
China’s missile strategy extends beyond fixed installations, with military units practicing mobile launch capabilities throughout eastern regions. In recent military exercises, soldiers have conducted drills launching missiles from agricultural fields, secluded valleys, areas adjacent to expressways, and coastal outcrops directly facing Taiwan across the 100-mile strait that separates the island from mainland China.
This mobility-focused approach reflects China’s preparations for potential conflict scenarios. Chinese military textbooks and exercise footage indicate that in a war over Taiwan, commanders would disperse mobile missile units to caves and protected sites to evade detection. Coastal launch positions would enable units to fire at targets in Taiwan or ships at sea before rapidly relocating to another site, creating a challenging environment for defensive countermeasures.
During military exercises in 2022—which Beijing characterized as retaliation for then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei—China utilized launch sites near its closest point to Taiwan to test-fire army rockets capable of striking the island. Joseph Wen, an independent Taiwanese researcher tracking People’s Liberation Army forces, analyzed Chinese state television footage to identify these locations. Additionally, satellite imagery has revealed that China has constructed targets in the shape of U.S. warships in western desert regions, presumably for missile targeting practice, including dummy vessels mounted on rails to simulate movement at sea.
Strategic Implications for Taiwan and U.S. Military Presence
The strategic implications of China’s missile buildup extend far beyond Taiwan itself. In any potential conflict, these missiles would serve multiple critical functions: neutralizing Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, threatening U.S. military bases in Guam and Japan, and targeting American naval vessels deployed to the region. Kelly Grieco, senior fellow with the Stimson Center, warns that systems like the Dongfeng-26 create particularly dangerous scenarios due to their dual nuclear-conventional capability.
“If there is a Taiwan conflict, particularly if there’s some level of U.S. involvement or the threat of U.S. involvement, then from the start it has a nuclear dimension,” explains Grieco, who co-authored a recent study warning that U.S. bases in the Asia-Pacific could be devastated by China’s missile arsenal. “A system like the Dongfeng-26 makes this potentially even more dangerous.”
Chinese military planners appear to be betting that their numerical advantage and mobile launch capabilities can prevail in a complex game of hide-and-seek—evading enemy strikes while exhausting missile defense systems. Recent studies suggest U.S. air bases in Asia remain highly vulnerable to Chinese missiles, partly because many lack sufficient hardened shelters for aircraft protection. “We’re working on defenses,” acknowledges Shugart, “but I have a hard time imagining them not getting overwhelmed with the kind of numbers that we see.”
Challenges and Limitations Amid Rapid Expansion
Despite this impressive buildup, China’s missile program has not been without significant challenges. Recent corruption scandals and leadership upheavals have plagued the Rocket Force, with a Pentagon assessment suggesting that graft may have compromised the integrity of China’s new nuclear missile silos. These internal problems represent potential vulnerabilities in an otherwise formidable military expansion.
Military analysts also question how effectively China’s missiles would perform under actual combat conditions. While radar and satellite capabilities have improved targeting accuracy, striking moving naval vessels across open waters during the chaos of warfare would present far greater challenges than hitting stationary targets. As Professor David Logan of Tufts University observes, the practical effectiveness of these systems remains largely theoretical until tested in actual conflict.
Nevertheless, President Xi has signaled unwavering commitment to developing missile capabilities, demonstrated by his high-profile visit to Brigade 611 last year. During the visit, Chinese state television showed Xi observing troops simulating mobile missile launch preparations as he urged them to “deepen your sense of peril and crisis, and your combat mind-set.” This personal endorsement underscores the central role of missile forces in China’s military strategy and broader geopolitical ambitions in the Taiwan Strait and beyond—a reality that continues to reshape security dynamics throughout the Indo-Pacific region.
