Alright, let’s break this down together and unpack the story of eastern Ukraine’s battles in a way that feels more like a conversation than a cold recounting of facts. Imagine sitting down for coffee and catching up on this pivotal moment in Ukraine’s war. Here’s how the story unfolds:
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Russia’s grinding offensive in eastern Ukraine continues to reshape the battlefield in the Donetsk region. Most recently, their forces have taken control of the town of Velyka Novosilka, a modest gain at first glance but one that fits into a larger strategic puzzle. This development highlights the methodical—and, frankly, relentless—approach Moscow has been employing. Picture this: waves of soldiers moving inexorably forward, using sheer numbers and tactical advantages to trap Ukrainian troops and force them into retreat. It’s a brutal chess match played out in real-time.
### Velyka Novosilka: A Small Town, Big Consequences
Let’s talk about Velyka Novosilka, a name that probably doesn’t ring many bells unless you’ve been closely following the war. Before the conflict, it was a humble town of around 5,000 people. However, its location—at a critical road junction—made it strategically significant. According to battlefield analysts pouring over satellite images and combat footage, this town is now firmly under Russian control.
The Kremlin officially announced the capture on Sunday, and Ukraine’s military acknowledged pulling back from most of the town—although they claimed to still have a small foothold in its northern outskirts. This tug-of-war is emblematic of the larger conflict in the region. For Russia, Velyka Novosilka’s capture isn’t just about conquering land; it’s about improving their logistics in the area for what’s to come.
Now, it’s worth noting that Velyka Novosilka is a step down in significance compared to nearby strongholds like Vuhledar and Kurakhove, which Russia had claimed earlier. But these seemingly smaller victories are adding up. They’re part of a grinding formula that’s working in Moscow’s favor, as Ukraine struggles to hold its defensive lines.
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### How Russia is Playing the Long Game
Here’s the thing: Russia’s strategy isn’t flashy or lightning-fast, but it is effective. What they’re doing is leveraging their manpower advantage—something Ukraine simply can’t match. They chip away, town by town, in an almost mechanical rhythm: relentless assaults, a pincer movement, and eventual entrapment of Ukrainian forces. For example, in Velyka Novosilka, the writing was on the wall when Russian troops encircled the town by mid-January. They seized settlements to the north and south, cutting off all incoming roads. From there, Ukrainian commanders had to make the gut-wrenching decision to withdraw rather than risk their forces being fully encircled.
Major Ivan Sekach, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s 110th Brigade fighting in the area, summed it up pretty candidly: the Russians are no amateurs in this war. “From a tactical perspective, their approach was correct—they understood their capabilities and advantages and used them effectively,” he admitted. It’s a sobering acknowledgment of Russia’s calculated moves in this conflict.
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### The River Dilemma and Urban Warfare
What made holding Velyka Novosilka particularly challenging for Ukraine’s forces was a natural obstacle—a river that limited their ability to bring in reinforcements or even basic supplies like ammunition and food. For weeks, they had to rely on drones to get what they needed. Think about that: drones flying through contested skies, carrying lifelines strapped underneath them. And when it came to reinforcements? Crossing the river, already a logistical nightmare, became nearly impossible as Russian forces closed in.
On top of this, urban combat in the town turned into a harrowing grind. Russia’s tactics here were both simple and unsettling. Small groups of about five soldiers would creep forward every hour, using tree lines for cover to avoid detection. Once they reached the edge of the town, they took shelter in basements of abandoned buildings—a move that’s frustratingly difficult to counter. Even advanced drones and artillery struggled to root them out. According to Major Sekach, it often took multiple artillery strikes just to target one enemy position accurately. And when it came to matching Russia soldier-for-soldier, Ukraine simply didn’t have the numbers.
But even with odds stacked against them, Ukraine’s troops made it clear they wouldn’t go down easily. They clung to the town for two additional weeks of brutal fighting, aiming to inflict as much damage as possible on the advancing Russians before pulling out. In the dead of night, shrouded by fog, Ukrainian troops staged a withdrawal—avoiding catastrophic casualties or large-scale surrender. At least, that’s Ukraine’s official story. Not everyone is convinced. Experts like Pasi Paroinen, from the Finland-based Black Bird Group, suggest that retreating across open floodplains and a river without bridges would have been almost impossible without heavy losses.
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### Toward the Next Chapter of Conflict
So, what happens next? The capture of Velyka Novosilka gives Russia a few key advantages, but it’s far from a decisive game-changer. Experts predict Russian forces will now push northward to control a highway that’s critical to supplying Ukraine’s units in the area. This becomes a domino effect: control one piece, and the road opens up for advancing on the next.
But this isn’t an isolated battle. Fighting rages elsewhere in Donetsk, particularly around the strategic hilltop city of Toretsk, about 50 miles away. This city is widely seen as the next major prize. If Toretsk falls, it could break Ukraine’s defensive belt in northern Donetsk, opening the door for further Russian offensives.
Recognizing the escalating intensity of the fight, President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stepped in to shake up command. He assigned Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, to personally lead operations in the Donetsk region. In his Sunday evening address, Zelensky didn’t mince words, calling this theater of war the “most intense areas of combat.” It’s a clear signal of how much hangs in the balance.
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### Lessons From the Battlefield
Looking at the broader picture, there are some tough realities for Ukraine to grapple with here. Major Sekach underscored an uncomfortable truth: while Russia does rely on overwhelming numbers, they also display tactical competence. Their methodical approach to capturing Velyka Novosilka and other towns reveals an understanding of their own strengths and how to exploit their opponent’s vulnerabilities.
For Ukraine, this is a grueling war of attrition. They have limited manpower and resources stretched across a wide front. They try to fight smart, using urban combat and withdrawal tactics to bleed Russian forces, but the sheer weight of Russia’s numbers makes every battle a painful trade-off.
As the conflict pushes forward, the battle for towns like Velyka Novosilka may seem small in the grand scheme—but they matter. Each town is a step in a larger chain reaction, a cascading series of gains that bring Moscow closer to its goals in the Donetsk region.
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By telling this story, we can understand the human cost and raw strategy behind every map marker and battle report. This isn’t just about Velyka Novosilka; it’s about the calculated grind of modern war and what it means for the soldiers on both sides, fighting for every inch of ground.
