The stakes were high, the tension palpable, but on a clear Monday morning, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico announced a breakthrough that brought widespread relief to her nation. She had successfully negotiated a delay in the Trump administration’s plan to impose 25 percent tariffs on Mexican goods—tariffs that were to take effect at midnight. “We have this month to work,” Sheinbaum declared with a mix of relief and determination during her morning press conference. She had personally spoken with Mr. Trump, convincing him to hold off on the penalties with a promise: “We are going to deliver results. Good results for your people, good results for the Mexican people.”
For Mexico, it was a momentary reprieve and a diplomatic display of resilience. Trump’s approach during his presidency had been aggressive, pushing not only adversaries but also close allies into uncomfortable concessions. The threat of tariffs on Mexican goods was just the latest example. For now, Mexico had bought itself time—a critical 30-day window to tackle some of its most entrenched challenges, primarily drug trafficking and migration, in a way that would satisfy both nations.
### The Deal: Gains and Promises
Under the terms of the agreement, Mexico committed to deploying an additional 10,000 members of its National Guard to the border. In exchange, the United States pledged to curb the flow of illegal firearms heading south into Mexico—a significant issue fueling cartel violence. While President Trump celebrated the troop deployment in his public remarks, he made no explicit reference to this reciprocal promise about stemming U.S.-origin firearms, a point President Sheinbaum strongly emphasized.
The arrangement was not just another political maneuver—it represented a shared urgency to address pressing bilateral issues. Yet, it placed Mexico under immense pressure to deliver concrete results within a short span, particularly regarding two deeply complex challenges: migration and fentanyl trafficking.
### The Fentanyl Dilemma
The fentanyl crisis has become not just a U.S. tragedy but also a thorny issue complicating U.S.-Mexico relations. Over the years, Mexico has outpaced China as the primary supplier of this extraordinarily potent and lethal synthetic opioid to the United States. Fentanyl’s high profitability and ease of transport—in glove compartments, small bags, or hidden under clothing—make it almost impossible to regulate effectively. U.S. data points to a startling reality: more than 80 percent of individuals sentenced for trafficking fentanyl across the southern border are American citizens, often recruited by cartels. This challenges the widely held belief that migrants predominantly drive the drug crisis.
President Sheinbaum’s administration has stepped up operations to dismantle drug labs and seize contraband. Just months into her tenure, Mexican security forces recorded their largest-ever fentanyl seizure, equating to approximately 20 million doses. However, experts like security analyst Jaime López-Aranda argue these efforts might be more symbolic than substantive. The depth and adaptability of cartels make significant disruption of their operations exceedingly difficult.
The lessons of past administrations echo loudly in these discussions. Former President Felipe Calderón’s aggressive war on drugs backfired spectacularly in the mid-2000s, as targeting cartel leadership splintered the groups into smaller, more violent factions. Analysts caution against repeating these mistakes, warning that dismantling drug labs and cracking down through brute force could exacerbate violence and leave Mexico to contend with the collateral damage alone.
### The Migration Front
While the fentanyl issue remains deeply complex, Mexico’s recent track record on migration offers a clearer pathway. Over the last year, Mexico has significantly tightened immigration enforcement, introducing measures ranging from deploying National Guard troops to checkpoints across the country to implementing “decompression” policies. These policies entail moving concentrated groups of migrants away from northern border regions to reduce pressure points. Mexico has also made dismantling large migrant caravans—a visible and politically charged issue—a standing priority.
The results have been stark. In December 2024, U.S. Border Patrol officials reported a dramatic drop in illegal crossings, with only 47,326 recorded incidents compared to the record 249,740 just the year before. Factors contributing to this sharp decline include Mexico’s stricter stance and the Biden administration’s summer executive order that significantly curbed asylum access for undocumented migrants. However, these policies have not come without criticism. Former National Migration Institute advisor Mauro Pérez Bravo suggests that Mexico’s strategies have “emotionally and physically drained” migrants, leaving them dejected and deterred from reaching their objectives.
### Is the Border Deployment Enough?
Under the new deal, Mexico’s pledge to deploy 10,000 National Guardsmen to its borders represents the country’s third major troop commitment to border security in just six years. However, experts voice concerns about the efficacy of this measure in targeting fentanyl production and trafficking specifically. Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a drug policy researcher, notes, “If you’re only going to have them at the border, that doesn’t address the entire fentanyl production chain.” The drug’s journey involves a vast and sophisticated network, starting with easily available precursor chemicals and ending in clandestine labs dotted throughout Mexico.
Security specialists like Jonathan Maza suggest that rather than merely deploying troops, a more collaborative intelligence-sharing system between the U.S. and Mexico could yield more sustainable outcomes. Unfortunately, the lack of sufficient bilateral cooperation—a longstanding point of tension—has often hampered these efforts.
### The Trump Factor and Tariffs
For President Sheinbaum, the tariff threat by President Trump remains a lingering shadow over her administration. Trump’s tactic of leveraging punitive economic measures has placed nations, including staunch allies, in precarious positions. In Mexico’s case, tariffs could deliver a devastating blow to its economy, but they also serve as a useful tool for eliciting immediate results. Analysts believe Mexico’s intense efforts to meet U.S. demands in the short term might bear fruit, but criminal groups—particularly cartels—are renowned for their ability to adapt and relocate operations as new challenges arise.
### Firearms: A Shared Yet Ignored Problem
A key facet of the agreement, overlooked in Trump’s public comments, was the U.S.’s commitment to curtail the illegal flow of high-powered firearms into Mexico. For years, these weapons have bolstered cartels, enhancing their firepower and fueling violence. Mexico has long called attention to this issue, even suing American gun manufacturers in 2021 for their role in the violence plaguing the country. Though the lawsuit faced numerous legal challenges, it highlighted the critical link between loose U.S. gun laws and Mexico’s security woes.
President Sheinbaum underscored the importance of addressing this issue, but the feasibility of such change remains unclear, especially given Trump’s silence on the matter. Experts question whether the U.S. government can truly deliver on its promise to help stem illegal arms trafficking and what consequences, if any, Mexico might face should the U.S. fall short.
### A Glimmer of Hope Amid Layers of Complexity
As the 30-day clock ticks, the weight of these intertwined challenges rests heavily on Mexico’s shoulders. The agreement with the Trump administration has given the Sheinbaum government a lifeline, but it has also thrust the nation into a high-stakes trial. Success will likely depend on strategic collaborations, creative policy-making, and both nations’ willingness to address shared responsibilities in good faith.
While some aspects, such as migration enforcement, appear manageable in the immediate term, other issues—like fentanyl trafficking and gun smuggling—require long-term solutions far beyond troop deployments or symbolic gestures. For now, Mexico scrambles to navigate this delicate dance, caught between addressing its internal struggles and meeting the towering expectations set by its northern neighbor.
