In recent years, the U.S.-Mexico border has been a hotspot for migration crises, often marked by crowded encampments, humanitarian pleas, and heated political debates. But as President Donald J. Trump’s return to office looms near, a starkly different scene has unfolded along the border. In Ciudad Juárez, once teeming with migrants awaiting their chance to cross the Rio Grande into the United States, the embankments now sit eerily quiet. The traces of desperation—charred campfires, abandoned shoes, and discarded belongings—have been replaced by a strange calm. This shift isn’t confined to Juárez; it’s happening all along the U.S.-Mexico border, a reflection of significant changes in migration patterns and policies.
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### A Shift in Migration Flow
The steady decline in the number of migrants approaching the border can be linked to a combination of stricter immigration policies under multiple administrations and increased enforcement by neighboring countries. Over the past months, both the Biden administration’s tightened asylum policies and measures implemented by Mexican and Panamanian officials have significantly reduced the number of people attempting to cross into the U.S. illegally. In June, President Biden signed an executive order that effectively blocked undocumented migrants from applying for asylum, resulting in a sharp drop in crossings—from 117,905 in May to 83,532 in June.
While the numbers have decreased, they remain higher than during much of Trump’s original presidency. This has prompted calls by the Trump camp—and even some Democrats—for stronger border restrictions. These new waves of policy debates come as President Trump prepares to re-enter office. His pick to lead the Department of Homeland Security, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, has vowed to revive Trump-era border measures. Among her goals? Reinstitute the controversial “Remain in Mexico” policy requiring asylum seekers to wait in Mexico for their U.S. cases to be processed and reduce temporary immigration relief for those fleeing turmoil in their home countries.
Noem emphasized the urgency of this approach during a Senate hearing, stating, “Border security must remain a top priority.”
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### Views from Latin America: Mixed Responses
Across the border, officials in Latin America have noted a shift in migration dynamics. According to Enrique Serrano Escobar, who oversees migration efforts for Chihuahua State, the pressures at key checkpoints like Ciudad Juárez have eased dramatically. “There is no crisis,” Serrano said, declaring that the border city is now calmer than it’s been in years. Many shelters in the region, which just months ago were nearing capacity, currently sit largely unoccupied. In Ciudad Juárez, for instance, shelters with room for 3,000 migrants are only about 40% full.
Even so, the long and dangerous trails of migration haven’t disappeared entirely. In Nuevo Laredo, for example, a shelter built for 300 recently housed only seven people, a telling sign of how migration flows have slowed. Across border cities like Matamoros and Tijuana, shelters report similar conditions, often half empty. This contrasts sharply with the chaos of previous years, when shelters and detention centers overflowed, and tragic incidents—like the fire at a migrant detention facility in Ciudad Juárez in 2023—shocked the world.
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### The Darién Gap: A Key Indicator
Another telling sign of this new migration landscape is the reduced movement through the Darién Gap, the dangerous stretch of jungle connecting South and Central America. For years, the Darién Gap has been a critical and perilous route for migrants heading north. Only two years ago, thousands of migrants made the trek daily, with Colombian towns like Necoclí serving as launch points for the journey. In August 2023, the Darién Gap saw a record 80,000 migrants cross through in a single month. By December 2024, fewer than 5,000 took the same route, largely due to stricter restrictions in Panama and the Biden administration’s asylum policies.
For many migrants still intent on reaching U.S. soil, fear of losing their last opportunity before Trump’s second inauguration has led some to take extreme measures. Smugglers are capitalizing on this desperation, offering services like the “V.I.P. route,” which moves migrants from Guatemala to Mexico’s Cancún by land and then onward by air to Ciudad Juárez using false Mexican passports. The cost for these services surged to $450 just before the anticipated inauguration, though it was expected to drop soon after.
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### Migration Policies: A Divisive Issue
The political landscape around migration remains deeply conflicted. While some Democrats and Republicans support harsher policies designed to discourage illegal crossings, others argue for more humane approaches. Biden’s asylum reforms, including the introduction of the CBP One mobile app, represented an effort to streamline legal entry into the U.S. The app allowed nearly 44,000 migrants to schedule processing appointments at border entry ports in December.
However, critics of the app, including Trump’s Homeland Security nominee Kristi Noem, argue that it effectively provided loopholes for migrants who should have no path to U.S. entry. Noem plans to phase out the app, signaling a more hardline approach for immigration under Trump’s new term.
For migrants like Solsiree Petit, a Venezuelan teacher with pressing medical needs, such policy changes are harrowing. Petit’s sons recently turned themselves in to U.S. authorities seeking asylum, and she was counting on an already scheduled appointment with U.S. Customs and Border Protection for her own application. Reflecting the uncertainty many migrants feel, she shared, “I prefer not to think otherwise… because it depresses you more.”
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### Desperation Persists Underneath Calm
Even with decreased migration numbers, the underlying desperation of many migrants remains unchanged. For some, the quieter border doesn’t symbolize hope—it highlights the increasing difficulty of their journeys. Migrants are avoiding traditional shelters, fearful of violence or extortion by criminal organizations that frequently target those vulnerable waystations. Instead, they opt for riskier paths or rely on smugglers to guide them north.
Take Juan Hernández, a handyman from Honduras who has lived in the U.S. for 23 years before being deported multiple times. After a recent deportation tied to a conviction in North Carolina, Hernández has spent the last six months plotting his return, undeterred by the mounting obstacles. “I don’t care if the devil himself is in my way. I’m going forward,” Hernández said, underscoring the unrelenting resolve of many migrants despite the heightened challenges.
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### A Landscape of Change, Yet Persistent Uncertainty
The evolving situation along the U.S.-Mexico border paints a complex picture. While migration numbers have dropped dramatically—in part due to aggressive policy shifts from the Biden administration, Mexico, and Panama—the decline doesn’t fully capture the lingering human stories of hope, risk, and resilience. For some, the calm along the border cities like Juárez and Matamoros signals progress. For others, it underscores how desperation has driven migrants to explore more perilous routes and uncertain futures.
Regardless of which administration implements migration rules, the border remains a symbol of the complexities of global movement—balancing security, compassion, and the unyielding dreams of those seeking a better life. As Trump prepares to re-enter office, the question looms: Will the stricter policies effectively curb crossings, or will they ignite a new cycle of desperation and defiance? Only time will tell. For now, the quiet border waits.
