Mamdani Maintains Lead in NYC Mayoral Race as Dynamics Shift
In the wake of incumbent Mayor Eric Adams’ withdrawal from the New York City mayoral race, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani continues to lead, though his advantage has narrowed considerably according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll. The survey, released Thursday, shows Mamdani commanding 46% support among likely voters, with independent candidate and former Governor Andrew Cuomo following at 33%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa trailing at 15%. This represents a significant tightening from Mamdani’s previous 22-point lead over Cuomo in September, which has now shrunk to 13 points. The poll clearly indicates that most of Adams’ former supporters have shifted their allegiance to Cuomo, while Sliwa’s support base has remained stable. Despite this consolidation behind Cuomo, Quinnipiac Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow noted that “Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact,” suggesting that while the numbers have shifted, the fundamental contours of the race remain unchanged.
The demographic breakdown reveals distinct voter preferences that highlight the city’s political and cultural divides. Mamdani draws his strongest support from Democrats (60%), Asian American voters (67%), younger voters aged 18-49, and those who don’t identify with any religious group (69%). He also maintains an edge among Black and Hispanic voters, constituencies traditionally vital for victory in New York City elections. Cuomo, meanwhile, finds his strongest backing among Jewish voters, where he commands 60% support. The Republican candidate Sliwa maintains the loyalty of his party’s base, with 54% of Republicans supporting him, though interestingly, 37% of Republican voters favor Cuomo instead. This crossover appeal for the former governor suggests some potential for growth beyond traditional Democratic voters, but his overall unfavorability rating of 52% – likely stemming from the sexual harassment allegations that led to his resignation in 2021 – presents a significant obstacle to expanding his coalition further.
When considering candidate qualifications and ethics, New Yorkers present a nuanced view that doesn’t uniformly favor any single candidate. More voters perceive Mamdani as the more ethical candidate compared to both Cuomo and Sliwa, a factor that could prove crucial in a city where political corruption scandals have frequently shaped electoral outcomes. However, when asked about experience, a majority of voters acknowledged that Cuomo possesses “the right kind of experience” to serve as mayor, likely reflecting his three terms as governor and extensive history in public service. This tension between perceived ethics and experience creates an interesting dynamic in the race, particularly as voters consider who might best navigate the complex challenges facing America’s largest city. The poll also explored which candidate would best represent the city’s interests in dealing with a Trump administration in Washington, with voters almost evenly split between Mamdani (35%) and Cuomo (34%), suggesting neither has convincingly established themselves as the stronger defender of New York against potential federal hostility.
On policy matters, clear differences emerge in voter perceptions of the candidates’ strengths. Mamdani holds a commanding lead when it comes to addressing housing affordability, with 48% of voters believing he would do the best job lowering housing costs, compared to just 25% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa. This represents a significant advantage on what many New Yorkers consider one of the city’s most pressing issues. Conversely, Cuomo edges out Mamdani on economic management, with 41% of voters expressing confidence in the former governor’s ability to steer the city’s economy, compared to 35% for Mamdani. These policy distinctions suggest that voters see different strengths in each candidate, potentially creating openings for both campaigns to emphasize their perceived advantages in the final stretch of the race.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has emerged as a surprisingly significant factor in this municipal election, reflecting both the city’s large Jewish and Muslim populations and the intensifying global attention on the Middle East situation. When asked which candidate’s views on the Israel-Hamas conflict most closely matched their own, 45% of voters chose Mamdani, compared to 26% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa. This aligns with the broader finding that more New Yorkers express sympathy for Palestinians (43%) than Israelis (22%) in the ongoing conflict, though a significant portion (33%) offered no opinion. These numbers suggest Mamdani’s positions on international issues, though outside the traditional scope of mayoral authority, may be resonating with a substantial portion of the electorate. The poll was completed before President Trump announced the first phase of a peace/hostage release plan between Israel and Hamas, which could potentially shift these dynamics.
As the race enters its final phase, both leading campaigns are working to shape the narrative around these polling numbers. The Cuomo camp, through spokesman Rich Azzopardi, has emphasized the former governor’s 10-point gain since September, framing it as evidence that “this race is shifting decisively” and suggesting momentum is on their side. They’ve also floated the scenario of a competitive two-way race should Sliwa follow Adams’ example and exit the contest. Mamdani’s campaign, meanwhile, can point to their consistent lead across multiple polls and their candidate’s advantages on ethics and housing policy. With Election Day approaching, the Quinnipiac survey of 1,015 likely voters (conducted October 3-7 with a margin of error of ±3.9 percentage points) provides a snapshot of a race that remains competitive but still favors the Democratic nominee. As New Yorkers prepare to choose their next mayor, the contrasting strengths, weaknesses, and visions of these candidates continue to shape a contest with significant implications for the future of America’s largest city.
