The Enduring Challenge to Global Heating: A Climate Monitor’s Perspective
In the face of heavy freezing temperatures reported across much of the United States last month, researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) highlighted a surprising anomaly. While much of the planet has experienced warming at a rate comparable to pre-industrial levels, the United States’ polar regions recorded the warmest January on record. This phenomenon occurred during La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a climate phenomenon typically associated with relatively cooler eastern latitudes, which are known to lower global temperatures, at least to some extent. Scientists, however, were puzzled by this occurrence as they expected the warmer demonstrative years following El Niño events, which are characterized by warmer eastern waters linked to reduced ocean heating. Despite this, the scientists noted, "…the La Niña Pattern and the El Niño Pattern are long-term, and their interplay is complicated and erratic, both in terms of their timing and their influence." As a result, despite the 21st century’s rise in surface temperatures,, scientists are now examining whether another element in the planet’s chemistry, perhaps beyond greenhouse gas emissions, might account for the recent warming. The problem is, as Dr. Russell Vose, a climate researcher at NOAA once described to press conferences, those contributions remain the main drivers behind global warming, which reached 50-year highs in both 2023 and 2024."
The interplay between La Niña and El Niño conditions has become a focal point in discussions about global warming. La Niña conditions, sustained and intense, typically produce cooler eastern Pacific waters, contributing to a net heat flow from the east to the west, which generally counteracts global warming. However, in the past decade, when La Niña conditions were on the rise, scientists were expecting the Pacific and hence the global warming to be somewhat cooler than it had been in the previous two years, both of which also experienced El Niño events. There was a delicate balance here, as the influence of El Niño and La Niña conditions can shift the global climate pattern, sometimes leading to warmer or cooler periods, depending on the dominant conditions.
Dr. Vose emphasized that no two years in a row are remotely close to record-breaking 2025, which he described as a formidable challenge for climate scientists. Yet, with data showing that global warming is not just ongoing but driving unprecedented fluctuations in extreme weather, this year is particularly fragile. However, this might not hold a permanent place in the lineup, as neighboring Eastern Europe, Northwest America, and parts of South America, reported record-breaking temperatures in January,* with temperatures above 2°C or 3.4°C in 44 locations.
The mystery of this warming period is particularly intriguing for a couple of reasons. First, we’re inclining toward a scenario where global warming may be strongest this time, but unlike previous decades, that could very well be the case. But, as temperatures have becomeOUCHESUPped, both in magnitude and in frequency, the region that would follow La Niña conditions last January – namely eastern North and South America – is going to be particularly affected by(w中学) 科学家用极端天气的变化。根据Director Vose的报告,尽管La Niña的极端天气在特定时间内发生得更多,但科学家们很难否认在过去一段时间内,人类活动是主要的温ate乐观者——不仅仅是二氧化碳和石油,还有 sulfate颗粒物的排放。
“科学家们正在努力探讨,”Dr. Vose补充道,“为什么尽管SO2和石油和其他温室气体从化石燃料燃烧产生的排放量持续 то是全球变暖的主要驱动因素,此外,**还包括其他因素也在推动全球温度上升。”
研究如何解释这种持续的变温现象, scientists have focused on reducing air pollution. Drs. Hansen’s latest report argues that cutting pollution levels has already played a significant role in accelerating global warming. The logic is悄-to-sбав—— relatives 提升了污染排放,因此,冷 Gas and other greenhouse gases的排放继续增加,尤其是在燃烧化石燃料的年代——现在人们不停地燃烧固态燃料如煤、天然气和汽油。同时,在这些环境中精致地排放小量的 sulfate 来.compile更多缝隙中的水滴, 这能保护地球免受阳光的直射。然而, 当aiding regulatory actions to reduce sulfate_sink排放的规模, this cooling effect has diminishes ——在同一时间,大气中的水滴量有所降低, 这把地球暴露在更多高温的太阳辐射中, 从而加剧了温室效应。
三十年前, Dr. Hansen 就在美国سعى释放巨大的报告, 那些报告说明人们在排放CO2和其他温室气体时也事态更为严重—— 化学工业前,年均温室气体排放量超过千逝世克。然后这些报告使科学家认识到 "~.ordinal异常结束的影响"和"温室效应加速正在加速度支持全球变暖。" rid’s arguments都感到难以置信——" 当前,联合国在制定气候目标, 它仍需各国在今后的几十年作出较大的减排努力,"他说, "如此缓慢的增量往往是无法实现的目标, 并且只有某种神奇的 miracle 才有可能达成,我们没想到。"
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