It’s been a devastating stretch of months for Gaza as Israel’s military campaign continues to batter Hamas. Since the militant group launched its audacious attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the fallout has been catastrophic on both sides. Yet amid all this destruction, a complex narrative is emerging about Hamas’s future in Gaza and what may come next.
Let’s rewind briefly. Back in October, Hamas’s attack on Israel was a high-stakes gamble. Their aim? To trigger a wider regional war, rally support from allies across the Middle East, and, ideally in their view, lead to Israel’s destruction. The actual outcome, however, was starkly different. Instead of uniting regional forces, Hamas has found itself more isolated than ever. Its allies—forces in Lebanon, Syria, and even Iran—have been effectively crippled or weakened. The Houthis in Yemen attempted to assist with sporadic rocket and drone attacks, but Israel intercepted most of these before they could cause significant damage. In practical terms, Hamas has been left alone to contend with the overwhelming might of the Israeli military.
The conflict has been brutal. Israel has delivered punishing blows to the group, killing many of its leaders and thousands of its fighters. Its much-publicized subterranean tunnel network has been decimated, and its capacity to launch rockets into Israeli territory severely undermined. Yet, despite these crushing setbacks and being hemmed in by Israel’s relentless bombardment, Hamas remains the dominant force in Gaza, holding control over the region and its displaced populace.
This speaks to the dual-edged reality of Hamas’s role in Gaza. On one hand, many Palestinians are deeply critical of Hamas’s decision to launch the October attack in the first place. That single act unleashed a war that has left tens of thousands of Gazans dead and reduced significant parts of the territory to rubble. Yet, on the other hand, there has been surprisingly little popular unrest directed at the group despite the catastrophe it has unleashed. Hamas continues to command authority within the displacement camps, and surrender is simply not in its playbook.
Now, a glimmer of diplomacy has emerged—a cease-fire agreement was announced this week, accompanied by cautious optimism. Hamas has been quick to label the deal as an “accomplishment,” but the future remains uncertain and fraught with questions. What role will Hamas play in Gaza moving forward? How will Israel respond? And can any kind of lasting peace actually take root?
The agreement, at least on paper, envisions an eventual permanent cessation of military operations and hostilities. But skepticism abounds. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly signaled his reluctance to let up entirely, suggesting that military action could resume after the release of some hostages currently held by Hamas militants. This limbo raises thorny questions about whether the cease-fire might simply be a temporary pause in the violence.
From Hamas’s perspective, the cease-fire could offer an opportunity to cement its grip on Gaza—or at least maintain an influential role going forward. Analysts aligned with Hamas argue that Israel will face mounting international pressure to refrain from resuming hostilities. They suggest that Hamas remains an undeniable force in Gaza’s landscape. “Hamas will be present in every detail in Gaza,” says Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst close to the group. He argues that efforts to bypass Hamas politically or militarily would be futile. In his view, sidelining Hamas would be akin to “burying your head in the sand.”
It’s important to note that Hamas, while weakened, is far from toppled. Its military wing, the Qassam Brigades, has taken significant losses during the conflict. Still, Madhoun points out that the group has been recruiting and replenishing its ranks at a striking pace. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed this assessment earlier this week, acknowledging that American officials believe Hamas has managed to bring in nearly as many new fighters as it has lost during the war. For Hamas, this resilience—however tenuous—has been critical to its ability to endure despite the relentless Israeli campaign.
But the future remains precarious. If Israel decides to resume its war against Hamas, the militant group could suffer even deeper losses. That scenario would not just spell further devastation for Palestinians in Gaza—it could also fundamentally backfire on Hamas itself. Tamer Qarmout, a professor of public policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, highlights the potential dangers for both sides. He suggests that if Israel moves to fully occupy Gaza, it might succeed in cutting off Hamas, but at a profound cost: widespread antagonism among the Palestinian public and potentially deeper chaos for Gaza.
So here we are, caught in the harrowing middle of a conflict with no easy answers. Hamas’s gambit to ignite a broader regional war has failed, leaving the group battered but unyielding in its control over Gaza. Israel faces tough decisions: will it press forward militarily or yield to international pressures to de-escalate? For Palestinians, the stakes are deeply personal, their lives upended by a war they had little say in.
What is clear is that the landscape of Gaza—and the broader dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—has been permanently altered. Whether this cease-fire agreement marks the start of a fragile peace or merely a pause in the violence remains to be seen. The shadow of further bloodshed looms large, but for now, the world watches and waits, holding its collective breath. Perhaps the most sobering truth is that even in the most harrowing circumstances, life in Gaza finds a way to carry on, as the people there cling to whatever hope remains.
