The November ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, intended to bring lasting peace to Southern Lebanon after a devastating war, faced a critical juncture as the 60-day deadline for mutual withdrawal expired. Instead of the anticipated calm, a renewed crisis unfolded. Israeli forces remained entrenched in parts of Southern Lebanon, defying the agreement’s stipulations, while thousands of displaced Lebanese citizens attempted to return to their homes, met by Israeli warnings and ultimately, deadly force. At least 15 Lebanese citizens were killed and over 80 injured by Israeli fire as they sought to re-enter their villages along the border, marking a tragic escalation of tensions and casting a shadow over the fragile peace. The Lebanese army, tasked with securing the area alongside U.N. peacekeepers, escorted civilians in an attempt to safeguard their return, but the effort was marred by violence, leaving one Lebanese soldier among the casualties. The Israeli military claimed the use of “warning shots” against “suspects” approaching their positions and reported arrests, while Lebanese accounts described sporadic fire directed at civilians.
The scene in Southern Lebanon painted a grim picture of destruction and resilience. Towns like Aita al-Shaab, heavily bombarded during the war, lay in ruins, with rubble-strewn streets and flattened buildings greeting returning residents. Despite the devastation and the ongoing threat, residents expressed determination to rebuild their lives and their homes. Israel’s justification for the continued occupation rested on claims of Hezbollah’s ongoing presence in the south and doubts about the Lebanese Army’s capacity to control the group. These assertions, however, lacked independent verification, and the committee overseeing the ceasefire implementation remained silent on Hezbollah’s compliance. The escalating situation presented a formidable challenge for Lebanon’s newly elected leadership, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, who were striving to assert government control over security matters, traditionally dominated by Hezbollah.
The continued Israeli occupation threatened to undermine the nascent political momentum in Lebanon, which for the first time in decades, saw a concerted effort to consolidate military power under the state’s authority, challenging Hezbollah’s justification for its independent military force. Experts warned that a prolonged occupation could inadvertently bolster Hezbollah, a group whose very foundation rests on resisting Israeli occupation, potentially reigniting support for the group as the protector of Lebanon’s borders. This resurgence could derail the efforts to disarm Hezbollah and integrate its forces into the national army, reversing the hard-won progress towards a unified security apparatus.
The unfolding events placed the Lebanese government in a precarious position. Hezbollah, while claiming adherence to the ceasefire, shifted the responsibility of responding to the Israeli occupation onto the Lebanese government, a tactical move that highlighted the complexities of the political landscape. While publicly calling on the state to reclaim occupied territories, Hezbollah’s own weakened state, due to losses in the war, the weakening of its patron Iran, and the disruption of its supply lines from Syria, limited its capacity for direct action. This dynamic underscored the delicate balance of power between the state and Hezbollah, a balance threatened by the continued Israeli presence.
The situation in Southern Lebanon attracted international attention, particularly from the United States, which played a role in the ceasefire agreement. The American general overseeing the ceasefire monitoring committee had earlier expressed confidence in the Lebanese Army’s ability to secure the south, a view seemingly contradicted by the current events. The origins of the conflict lay in Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel in solidarity with Hamas during the October 2023 conflict. Israel’s subsequent retaliation escalated into a full-blown war, resulting in widespread destruction and displacement in Southern Lebanon. The ceasefire agreement aimed to end this cycle of violence, but the failure to fully implement its terms risked reigniting hostilities.
The return of displaced Lebanese citizens, despite Israeli warnings, demonstrated a yearning for normalcy and a refusal to accept the continued occupation. Their determination to rebuild their lives amidst the devastation highlighted the human cost of the conflict. The precarious peace hung in the balance, with the actions of both Israel and Hezbollah in the coming days and weeks holding the key to whether the ceasefire would hold or whether the region would descend back into conflict. The international community watched with apprehension, hoping for a peaceful resolution that would allow the people of Southern Lebanon to finally return home in safety and begin the arduous process of rebuilding their lives and their communities.
