Gaza on Edge: Israeli Forces Poised to Strike Rafah as Humanitarian Crisis Deepens

Escalating Tensions in Gaza’s Southern Gateway

The southern Gaza city of Rafah stands at the precipice of what could become one of the most consequential military operations in the months-long Israel-Hamas conflict. Israeli forces have positioned themselves for what military officials describe as an “imminent large-scale operation” targeting Hamas fighters allegedly entrenched in the densely populated border city. This looming offensive has triggered urgent warnings from humanitarian organizations and international diplomats, who fear catastrophic consequences for the estimated 1.4 million Palestinians currently sheltering in Rafah—most of whom fled there from other parts of Gaza following previous Israeli military operations. The city, which normally houses around 280,000 residents, has swelled to nearly five times its usual population, creating conditions that United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called “beyond desperate” during an emergency briefing last week.

The strategic significance of Rafah extends beyond its military importance. Situated at Gaza’s southern edge along the Egyptian border, the city hosts the territory’s vital crossing point for humanitarian aid. International relief organizations, including Médecins Sans Frontières and the World Food Program, have established crucial distribution centers in and around Rafah to manage the flow of food, medicine, and essential supplies. “If military operations extend into Rafah, we’re looking at not just a humanitarian crisis, but a complete collapse of the aid infrastructure that’s barely sustaining life in Gaza right now,” explained Juliette Touma, communications director for UNRWA, the UN agency supporting Palestinian refugees. Satellite imagery analyzed by humanitarian monitoring groups shows extensive tent encampments stretching across former agricultural lands and along the coastline, evidence of the massive population displacement that has transformed Rafah into what observers call “one massive refugee camp.”

Historical Context and Strategic Calculations

The current focus on Rafah represents a significant evolution in Israel’s military campaign that began after Hamas’ October 7 attack, which killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and saw about 250 taken hostage. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently maintained that Hamas must be eliminated as a military and governing force in Gaza, with military leaders asserting that significant Hamas combat units and possibly hostages remain in Rafah. “We cannot leave the job half-finished,” Netanyahu stated during a televised address on Sunday, defending plans for the Rafah operation despite mounting international pressure. Israeli Defense Forces spokespeople claim intelligence indicates Hamas has established command centers within civilian infrastructure in Rafah, a claim that Hamas officials deny. This pattern—Israeli assertions of military necessity countered by humanitarian warnings—has characterized much of the conflict, but takes on heightened significance in Rafah given its geographic position and overcrowded conditions.

The historical context of Rafah further complicates the situation. The city has long served as Gaza’s gateway to the outside world, particularly since Israel’s blockade of the territory began in 2007 following Hamas’ rise to power. During previous conflicts in 2008-2009, 2012, and 2014, Rafah avoided the heaviest fighting that devastated northern and central Gaza areas. This relative stability made it a logical destination for displaced Palestinians during the current conflict. Egyptian authorities, meanwhile, have expressed growing concern about a potential mass exodus across their border should Rafah come under heavy bombardment. “We are making extensive preparations for various scenarios,” an Egyptian official told Reuters on condition of anonymity, “but our clear position remains that Palestinians should remain in their homeland.” Satellite imagery shows new barriers and reinforced security positions on the Egyptian side of the border, suggesting preparations to prevent or control any potential border crossings.

Humanitarian Crisis Reaching Breaking Point

The humanitarian situation in Rafah has deteriorated dramatically as the conflict has progressed. International aid organizations report severe shortages of clean water, medicine, and food, with children particularly vulnerable to malnutrition and disease. Dr. Samantha Richardson, a physician with International Medical Corps who recently returned from Gaza, described conditions as “beyond anything I’ve witnessed in 15 years of humanitarian work.” Water systems damaged by previous bombardments remain largely inoperable, forcing residents to rely on limited supplies delivered by aid trucks—deliveries that would likely cease entirely during military operations. Sanitation systems have collapsed in many areas, raising serious concerns about disease outbreaks. “We’re already seeing increasing cases of hepatitis, skin infections, and respiratory diseases,” Richardson noted. “A military assault on Rafah would turn what’s already a public health emergency into something much worse.”

Education and childhood development have been completely disrupted, with schools either destroyed or converted to emergency shelters. Psychological trauma affects virtually the entire population, with mental health workers reporting alarming rates of severe anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress, particularly among children. Economic activity has essentially ceased, with unemployment estimated at over 80 percent. “People are selling their last possessions—wedding rings, family heirlooms—just to buy food for their children,” reported Mohammed Saleh, a local aid coordinator. The World Food Programme has classified conditions in parts of Gaza as meeting the technical threshold for famine, with Rafah approaching similar levels despite being the main entry point for humanitarian aid. “The cruel irony is that people fled to Rafah seeking safety and access to aid,” said WFP spokesperson Abeer Etefa. “Now they face the prospect of being caught in combat with nowhere left to go.”

International Response and Diplomatic Efforts

The prospect of an assault on Rafah has galvanized diplomatic activity, with the United States, European Union, and Arab states all warning against the operation. President Biden spoke directly with Prime Minister Netanyahu last week, reportedly expressing “grave concern” about civilian casualties and urging consideration of alternative approaches. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on his sixth visit to the region since the conflict began, emphasized the need for “credible civilian protection plans” before any operation. The United Nations Security Council has scheduled an emergency session, though previous resolutions calling for cease-fires have failed to gain unanimous support. International Court of Justice proceedings related to the conflict continue, with South Africa’s genocide case against Israel citing the planned Rafah operation as further evidence for their claims—allegations Israel vehemently rejects.

Regional dynamics add further complexity. Egypt has strengthened its position against any refugee flow across its border, while simultaneously working with Qatar and the United States on cease-fire proposals that might prevent the Rafah operation entirely. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have issued increasingly urgent statements warning of regional destabilization if the humanitarian situation deteriorates further. Despite this diplomatic flurry, negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage release deal appear stalled. Hamas representatives maintain they will not engage in further talks while military operations continue, while Israeli officials insist that military pressure is necessary to secure hostage releases. “We’re caught in a tragic cycle,” observed Daniel Levy, president of the U.S./Middle East Project. “Each side believes escalation will force the other to concede, while civilians bear the horrific consequences of this deadlock.”

Looking Forward: Scenarios and Implications

As Israeli forces position themselves around Rafah, multiple scenarios remain possible. A full-scale assault could trigger the mass displacement humanitarian organizations fear, potentially creating pressure at the Egyptian border and further humanitarian suffering. A limited operation targeting specific areas might reduce civilian casualties but could extend the conflict’s timeline. Renewed cease-fire negotiations, potentially offering both sides partial achievements of their objectives, represent the outcome most international mediators are pursuing. The coming days will likely see intensified diplomatic efforts alongside military preparations. Palestinian civilians in Rafah, meanwhile, face impossible choices—whether to flee again with few possessions and nowhere safe to go, or remain in place and risk being caught in combat operations.

Whatever unfolds in Rafah will have lasting implications for Gaza’s future, Israeli security objectives, regional stability, and international humanitarian law. The destruction already experienced across much of Gaza presents enormous reconstruction challenges that would take decades and billions of dollars to address, even if fighting ended immediately. Questions about Gaza’s future governance remain unresolved, as do broader issues related to Palestinian statehood and Israeli security concerns. “What happens in Rafah won’t just determine the immediate fate of over a million civilians,” said Hisham Kassem, a Cairo-based political analyst. “It will shape the trajectory of this conflict for years to come, potentially closing or opening doors to eventual resolution.” As the world watches developments in this crowded corner of Gaza, the lives of hundreds of thousands hang in the balance—civilians caught in one of the century’s most intractable conflicts, now facing yet another displacement in a war that has already taken an extraordinary toll.