Xi Jinping’s Taiwan Strategy: Navigating the Trump Administration’s Second Term
China’s Delicate Balancing Act on Taiwan as Trump Returns to Office
In the wake of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, Chinese leader Xi Jinping finds himself recalibrating Beijing’s approach toward Taiwan, the democratic island that China claims as its territory. While Xi has consistently worked to erode international support for Taiwan, particularly from the United States, Trump’s unpredictable nature and history of unconventional diplomacy present both opportunities and challenges for Beijing’s strategic objectives. Before making any significant moves, Xi appears determined to gain clarity on the incoming Trump administration’s stance on the Taiwan issue, recognizing that missteps could prove costly in the delicate cross-strait relationship.
The Taiwan question remains perhaps the most volatile flashpoint in U.S.-China relations, with the potential to escalate into military confrontation if mishandled. Throughout his first term, President Xi has elevated the importance of “reunification” with Taiwan in Chinese political rhetoric, calling it a “historic mission” for the Communist Party while increasing military pressure through regular exercises surrounding the island. These actions have been met with growing bipartisan support in Washington for Taiwan’s defense capabilities, something Beijing views with deep concern. As Trump prepares to return to the White House, Xi must determine whether the new administration will continue the substantial arms sales and diplomatic engagement that characterized both the Biden presidency and Trump’s first term, or if there might be room for a different approach that could advance China’s interests.
Historical Context: Trump’s First Term and Taiwan Relations
During Trump’s first presidency, U.S.-Taiwan relations witnessed significant strengthening despite—or perhaps because of—his administration’s overall confrontational stance toward China. The Trump administration approved multiple major arms sales to Taiwan, including F-16 fighter jets and advanced missile systems, while also sending high-ranking officials to visit the island, breaking with decades of diplomatic protocol. This approach represented a departure from the more cautious engagement of previous administrations and established a foundation for the Biden administration to further enhance ties with Taipei. At the same time, Trump’s transactional view of foreign policy and his occasional questioning of U.S. defense commitments abroad created uncertainty about the depth of American resolve to defend Taiwan in a crisis—ambiguity that Beijing may seek to exploit in the coming years.
Trump’s return to power comes at a particularly sensitive moment in cross-strait relations. Taiwan’s newly inaugurated president, Lai Ching-te, has been labeled a “troublemaker” and “separatist” by Beijing, which has refused to engage with his administration. China has responded to Lai’s election by increasing military activities around Taiwan and pressuring the island’s few remaining diplomatic allies to switch recognition to Beijing. Economic coercion has also intensified, with China restricting certain imports from Taiwan and limiting tourism to the island. The Chinese leadership appears to be calculating that a second Trump term might provide an opening to accelerate these pressure tactics if the new administration prioritizes economic deals with China over security commitments to Taiwan—a scenario Xi would undoubtedly welcome but cannot take for granted given Trump’s unpredictability.
Deciphering Trump’s Taiwan Position: Mixed Signals and Strategic Ambiguity
The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s approach to Taiwan stems from conflicting signals during both his previous presidency and the recent campaign. While his administration implemented strongly pro-Taiwan policies, Trump himself occasionally appeared to view Taiwan primarily as leverage in broader negotiations with China rather than as a democratic ally deserving of support in its own right. During his campaign, Trump criticized the billions spent on foreign military aid while simultaneously projecting strength against China. This ambivalence creates a strategic dilemma for Xi, who must determine whether Trump’s transactional instincts might lead him to reduce support for Taiwan in exchange for Chinese concessions on trade or other issues, or if the president-elect will instead follow the hawkish recommendations of his advisors and the strong congressional consensus on Taiwan’s importance.
“Xi is playing a waiting game with Trump on Taiwan,” explains Dr. Jennifer Chen, an East Asia security expert at Georgetown University. “Beijing remembers how Trump’s unpredictability sometimes worked to their advantage in his first term, but they’re also concerned about the increased anti-China sentiment across Washington. Xi needs to understand whether Trump sees Taiwan as a bargaining chip or as a red line before deciding how aggressively to push his reunification agenda.” This strategic patience reflects Xi’s cautious approach to what Chinese officials consistently describe as their most core interest. While Xi has publicly set reunification with Taiwan as a key element of his vision for China’s “national rejuvenation,” he has avoided specifying a timeline, giving himself flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances—including the significant variable of Trump’s return.
Economic Leverage and Military Deterrence: China’s Twin Approaches
As Xi waits to assess Trump’s Taiwan policy, Beijing continues to develop two parallel tracks to increase pressure on Taiwan: economic integration and military deterrence. On the economic front, China remains Taiwan’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade exceeding $270 billion annually despite political tensions. This economic relationship gives Beijing significant leverage, which it has selectively employed through targeted restrictions on Taiwanese agricultural and industrial products. Meanwhile, China’s military modernization has increasingly focused on capabilities specifically designed for a Taiwan contingency, including amphibious assault ships, precision missiles capable of striking throughout Taiwan, and naval assets to potentially enforce a blockade.
The incoming Trump administration faces the challenge of responding to this dual-track pressure campaign while managing broader economic relations with China. Trump’s focus on reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China could potentially overshadow security concerns about Taiwan, creating an opening for Xi to offer economic concessions in exchange for a reduction in American support for Taiwan. However, strong bipartisan consensus in Congress supporting Taiwan through legislation like the Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act limits how far any president can go in weakening U.S. commitments to the island’s defense. “Beijing understands that regardless of who occupies the White House, there are institutional constraints on how much U.S. policy toward Taiwan can change,” notes Ambassador Ryan Matthews, former U.S. diplomat specializing in East Asian affairs. “Xi is looking for opportunities at the margins, ways to gradually shift the balance without triggering a strong American response.”
The Global Implications of Cross-Strait Tensions Under a Second Trump Presidency
The evolution of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations under a second Trump presidency will have far-reaching consequences beyond East Asia. Japan, South Korea, and Australia—all U.S. allies with significant stakes in regional stability—are closely monitoring developments, concerned that any perception of weakening American resolve could embolden Chinese assertiveness. European nations have also become increasingly engaged on Taiwan issues, with parliamentary delegations visiting the island and several countries strengthening economic and cultural ties with Taipei. This internationalization of Taiwan’s status represents a diplomatic setback for Beijing’s efforts to isolate the island and increases the complexity of Xi’s calculus.
For Taiwan itself, the return of President Trump creates both opportunities and risks. While his administration’s previous strong support for arms sales bolstered Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, his skepticism about foreign commitments raises questions about American reliability in a crisis. Taiwan’s strategy has increasingly focused on asymmetric defense capabilities—mobile missile systems, naval mines, and other technologies designed to raise the costs of any Chinese invasion attempt—rather than relying solely on the prospect of American intervention. As President Lai navigates this uncertain terrain, he must maintain Taiwan’s de facto independence while avoiding provocations that could give Beijing a pretext for increasing pressure or that might test Trump’s commitment to Taiwan’s security.
The coming months will likely see a period of careful assessment on all sides, with Xi probing for indications of Trump’s intentions while maintaining pressure on Taiwan. The appointment of key personnel to positions overseeing Asia policy in the State Department, Pentagon, and National Security Council will provide initial clues about the new administration’s approach. Meanwhile, Taiwan will continue its delicate balancing act—strengthening its own defensive capabilities, maintaining robust unofficial relations with the United States, and pursuing economic diversification to reduce dependence on the Chinese market. In this high-stakes diplomatic chess match, Xi Jinping’s patient pursuit of “reunification” meets Donald Trump’s unpredictable deal-making instincts, with Taiwan’s democratic future hanging in the balance.
