Economic Hardship and Civil Unrest: Iran’s Delicate Balancing Act Under Pezeshkian
President Acknowledges Legitimate Grievances While Drawing Line Against “Rioters”
In a carefully calibrated address to the nation yesterday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a dual tone that both acknowledged the economic suffering driving recent protests while simultaneously reinforcing the government’s determination to maintain order. Speaking from Tehran’s presidential palace, Pezeshkian offered perhaps the most nuanced response from an Iranian leader in recent years to the waves of civil unrest that have periodically swept through the country. “We hear the voices of those struggling to put food on their tables, to afford medicine, to maintain their dignity in the face of crushing inflation,” the president said, his voice conveying what appeared to be genuine concern. “These are legitimate grievances that deserve our attention and meaningful action.” However, his tone shifted markedly when discussing what he characterized as violent elements within the protest movement. “But we must distinguish between citizens exercising their right to express dissatisfaction and those who exploit these conditions to destabilize our society,” Pezeshkian continued. “The state has not only the right but the obligation to respond decisively to rioters who damage public property, threaten security forces, or undermine national stability.”
The president’s comments come amid escalating tensions across multiple provinces, where demonstrations that began over food prices and fuel subsidy cuts have evolved into broader expressions of discontent with economic management and governance. What started three weeks ago in the southwestern city of Ahvaz as a peaceful gathering of factory workers protesting unpaid wages has since spread to at least seventeen cities, including major demonstrations in Isfahan, Mashhad, and parts of Tehran. The protests reflect the harsh economic reality facing ordinary Iranians: inflation hovering near 40 percent, youth unemployment exceeding 25 percent, and the national currency having lost more than 60 percent of its value against the dollar in just two years. These economic pressures have been exacerbated by international sanctions, government mismanagement, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Iran’s already strained healthcare system and business environment. Economic analysts note that the timing of these protests coincides with the government’s attempt to implement painful but potentially necessary structural reforms, including reducing costly subsidies that economists have long argued disproportionately benefit wealthier citizens while straining public finances.
Rights Organizations Document Rising Casualties as Tensions Escalate
The human toll of the unrest has risen dramatically according to multiple human rights organizations monitoring the situation. Tehran-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) documented at least 37 protest-related deaths across the country as of yesterday evening, a sharp increase from the 12 fatalities reported just one week earlier. International watchdog Amnesty International placed the figure even higher at 49 confirmed deaths, while noting that information restrictions make a complete accounting impossible. “The casualty numbers we’re seeing represent a significant escalation,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran, during a video briefing with journalists. “Even more concerning is the pattern of deaths—many victims were shot in the head or chest, suggesting security forces are not exercising restraint or following international standards for crowd control.” The government has disputed these figures, with Interior Ministry spokesperson Majid Mirahmadi claiming that “fewer than ten individuals have died in incidents related to the unrest, and several of these were security personnel attacked by violent elements armed with improvised weapons.”
Particularly alarming to human rights advocates is the reported deployment of plainclothes security agents alongside regular police and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) units in protest areas. Witnesses in multiple cities have described motorcyclists in civilian attire targeting individuals recording demonstrations on their phones, and reports of nighttime raids on homes of identified protesters have emerged from neighborhoods in Tehran, Kermanshah, and Tabriz. Meanwhile, internet monitoring groups including NetBlocks have documented significant disruptions to mobile internet service in protest-affected regions, with some areas experiencing complete shutdowns during evening hours when demonstrations typically intensify. Digital rights advocates warn that these connectivity disruptions not only limit protesters’ ability to organize but critically hamper documentation of potential human rights violations and complicate emergency medical responses. “When the internet goes dark, accountability goes with it,” said Mahsa Alimardani, an Iran researcher with digital rights organization ARTICLE19. “These blackouts create conditions where abuses can occur without witnesses or evidence.”
Economic Reforms at Crossroads: Necessary Medicine or Political Poison?
The economic policies at the heart of the current unrest represent a dilemma that has challenged successive Iranian administrations. The subsidy system that keeps fuel, bread, and basic utilities artificially inexpensive consumes nearly 15 percent of Iran’s GDP according to International Monetary Fund estimates, creating fiscal strains that economists across the political spectrum agree are unsustainable. Yet previous attempts to reform these subsidies—most notably in 2019—have triggered widespread protests. President Pezeshkian, who campaigned on promises of economic pragmatism and gradual reforms, now faces the same treacherous political terrain that has derailed his predecessors’ initiatives. “The fundamental problem is attempting these necessary economic adjustments without the political and social safety valves that would make them tolerable,” explained Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the economic think tank Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. “Reforms that cause short-term pain require transparency, clear communication about their purpose, and targeted support for vulnerable populations. The government has struggled with all three elements.”
Adding complexity to the economic landscape is Iran’s partially isolated position in the global economy. Banking restrictions and sanctions have limited foreign investment while complicating ordinary trade transactions. The resulting economic inefficiencies compound the hardships of daily life for average citizens, who often must navigate multiple jobs or informal economic activities to maintain their standard of living. In provincial cities particularly hard-hit by deindustrialization and drought—including protest centers like Kermanshah and Khuzestan—economic prospects have deteriorated steadily over the past decade. Youth unemployment in these regions sometimes exceeds 40 percent, creating a volatile demographic of educated but economically marginalized young people. Pezeshkian’s administration has promised a comprehensive economic recovery plan that would include anti-corruption measures, banking sector reforms, and initiatives to attract diaspora investment, but critics argue these proposals lack specificity and fail to address the immediate pressures facing households. “People cannot eat promises or long-term economic theories,” said economist Saeed Laylaz in a recent television appearance. “The government must balance necessary structural changes with immediate relief measures that demonstrate tangible concern for citizens’ well-being.”
International Response Reflects Complex Geopolitical Calculations
The international response to Iran’s domestic turbulence has reflected the complex and often contradictory relationships major powers maintain with Tehran. Western governments, particularly the United States and European Union members, have issued statements condemning what they characterize as excessive force against protesters while expressing support for Iranians’ right to peaceful assembly. U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller called for “restraint from Iranian authorities” and warned that “additional punitive measures remain on the table” should the crackdown intensify. However, these Western expressions of solidarity have been met with skepticism by many Iranians across the political spectrum, who point to the humanitarian impact of sanctions that have restricted medicine imports and financial transactions affecting ordinary citizens. Meanwhile, Russia and China have backed the Iranian government’s position that the unrest represents a domestic matter, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly warning against “external interference in Iran’s internal affairs” during a press conference in Moscow yesterday.
Regional responses have been similarly nuanced, reflecting the intricate power dynamics of the Middle East. While Turkey expressed “concern about reports of casualties” and called for dialogue, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have maintained conspicuous silence on the protests despite their typically critical stance toward Iranian policies. This diplomatic restraint likely reflects both ongoing reconciliation efforts between Tehran and Riyadh and a general wariness among autocratic governments about endorsing protest movements in neighboring countries. The varied international reactions underscore Iran’s unique position at the intersection of multiple geopolitical fault lines, where domestic developments inevitably acquire international dimensions. For ordinary Iranians, however, these diplomatic posturings offer little practical assistance in addressing the immediate economic challenges that sparked the protests. As one protestor in Isfahan told a citizen journalist in a widely shared video: “We don’t need statements or tweets from foreign governments. We need our own leaders to see our suffering and respond with real solutions, not bullets.”
Path Forward Requires Balancing Security Concerns with Legitimate Grievances
As Iran navigates this period of unrest, the sustainability of any resolution will depend on the government’s ability to address legitimate economic grievances while maintaining public order—objectives that need not be mutually exclusive despite the current polarization. Political analysts suggest that President Pezeshkian, who came to office with a reputation as a moderate pragmatist, faces intense pressure from hardline factions that favor a security-first approach while also needing to demonstrate responsiveness to citizen concerns to maintain his own political credibility. “The president is walking a tightrope,” said Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group. “He needs to acknowledge the legitimate grievances driving these protests without appearing weak to security-minded conservatives within the system. This requires both short-term palliative economic measures and a credible longer-term reform agenda.”
History suggests that purely security-oriented approaches to economic protests ultimately fail to address the underlying conditions that generate civil unrest. The 2019 protests, suppressed through force but never addressed through policy, simply created the conditions for future upheavals. What distinguishes the current moment is the potential for a different approach under Pezeshkian’s leadership, should he be able to navigate the competing pressures within Iran’s complex power structure. Some tentative signs of this alternative path have emerged in recent days, with the government announcing an emergency increase in cash subsidies to lower-income households and the suspension of certain price increases pending “further economic impact analysis.” Whether these measures represent genuine course corrections or merely temporary concessions to defuse tensions remains to be seen. As night falls across Iran’s cities and the protests enter their fourth week, the nation stands at a crossroads between reconciliation and deeper polarization. For millions of citizens struggling with economic hardship, the government’s next moves will signal whether their grievances have truly been heard or merely temporarily accommodated. “The fundamental challenge,” as prominent sociologist Mohammad Fazeli wrote in a widely circulated analysis, “is rebuilding the social contract between state and citizen. This requires not just economic policy adjustments but restoration of dignity and agency to people who feel increasingly marginalized from decisions that profoundly affect their daily lives.”
