More and more questions hang over what was called to be the Recovery Budget in Castilla y León. The crisis unleashed in the government team formed by PP and Ciudadanos at the expense of the rural health reform adds uncertainty about the preparation and approval of accounts that already required external support to see the light given the situation of parliamentary minority of the two partners.

Political logic forces the president of the Board, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, to call early elections so as not to risk being the victim of a motion of no confidence in March , at which time the Socialists can present one.

The polls are also clearly favorable to Mañueco, also president of the regional PP, who would regain the absolute majority at the cost of the collapse of Ciudadanos and the fall of the formation led by the socialist Luis Tudanca. The only question is whether the appointment with the polls will be this fall or spring.

In this scenario, PP and Ciudadanos must address the preparation of a Budget capable of consolidating the economic growth that has begun to be glimpsed in the second quarter of this year, in which GDP grew for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic . And it did so with a robust 18%, although insufficient to place us at the 2019 levels, which the Minister of Economy and Finance, Carlos Fernández Carriedo, hopes to achieve next year.

The loss of the absolute majority by the government coalition due to the departure of a Citizen’s attorney after the motion of censure that the PSOE presented and lost forces the regional government to seek external support for the 2021 accounts. It is in the Mixed Group, made up of the non-attached attorney, two representatives of Podemos-Equo, and another three that are distributed by Vox, Unión del Pueblo Leonés and Por Ávila.

The logical thing would be to find the necessary support in one of these last three formations, but that would mean giving the formation of Santiago Abascal, the main competitor of the PP, the possibility of capitalizing on the concessions for their support. In the other two cases, the popular would raise the misgivings of other provinces if they obtained support in exchange for investments in any of those territories.

Mañueco has publicly said that he will not call elections if there is political and parliamentary stability . And the approval or not of the accounts for next year are the best thermometer to measure it and have the necessary justification for the electoral advance to be sooner or later.

Along with the difficulties in finding external support to approve the accounts for next year, in the negotiation of the Budget, the economic impact of the PP’s ‘counter-reform’ to the health model that Ciudadanos wanted and that caused the ‘tsunami’ in the pact could be crucial. of government. Fernández Mañueco has imposed on the Minister of Economy and Finance, Carlos Fernández Carriedo, in the negotiations that the Minister of Health, Verónica Casado, will have to maintain with the Socialist Party.

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