In 2021 the forecasts of analysts are coming true, who for years pointed out that with the safest bonds – which have been reducing their yields to maturity due to low interest rates and the purchases of central bank debt – there was already little to scratch . Hence, investors are choosing to move towards riskier assets , in order to scratch some return.
Corporate bonds High Yield US (the so – called junk debt , which has a higher probability of default) and rising, price, 4.95% in the year and are at record highs. It is, in fact, the most bullish among the main fixed income categories that Bloomberg collects . The second category that does the best in 2021 – with a price increase of 4.64% in 2021 – is also garbage, but from the Old Continent: it is pan-European high yield debt .
This rise in price has already made a dent in the profitability of this asset at maturity, which stands at 3.74% (a year ago, it was around 6%). Still, this is one of the best performing categories. The most profitable is the global high yield , with 4.27% (a year ago, it was over 6%).
Falls in safe assets
If we look at the most bearish categories by price in 2021 are the US Treasury bonds, which are already 3.6% in the year. This type of debt offers little attractiveness for the investor, since its profitability stands at 0.7%. It is followed – among the most bearish – Canadian debt (down 2.52% by price in the year) and global debt (which falls 2.35%).
One of the factors that, in the last year, has pushed investors to move towards high yield is the threat of inflation (which, by rising, would completely eat away the returns of the safest and lowest-yielding assets). However, in the latest survey of Bank of America managers, these professionals estimate that this will be temporary, and that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be lower than the current one within 12 months.