The rise in small business earnings since 2025 has been unsettling. While small business earnings have improved by 75% compared to January 2025, the increase has been tempered by President Trump’s recent tariffs, which have raised business costs andaternicated consumer spending. However, the data from Biz2Credit, an online marketplace for small business financing, shows that small business earnings remain significantly below levels seen in the past two years. The average monthly earnings topped out at around $250,000 in the summer of 2023, but have gradually fallen to $128,900 by June 2024, with an average of just $62,300 in June 2024. This year, the earnings have been uneven, with little improvement since the previous two years. Despite the recent gain, the earnings tend to peak in June and then dip in the following months, reflecting seasonal factors such as holiday consumer spending, weather-dependent demand, and annual tax cycles. Small businesses remain underperforming compared to prior years, though this year’s improvement signals progress rather than a decline.
The data from Biz2Credit, which analyzes key financial metrics such as annual revenue, operating expenses, business age, credit scores, approval rates, and funding rates, reveals that small businesses face a challenging landscape. The Big Beautiful Bill, signed by President Trump on July 4, 2023, has provided significant tax cuts for small businesses, totaling over $13 trillion. However, these cuts were primarily temporary and have since been canceled in scope. According to the National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index, small businesses are still far from where they began, with the index falling slightly in June, though it remains 98.6, well above the 51-year average of 98. The frustration often stems from the predictable nature of earnings, which can only improve if the Big Beautiful Bill is in effect.
The optimism among small businesses is confirmed by the fact that the NFIBO index fell slightly in June, though its reading remains above the 98-year average. However, optimism is not without its challenges, as the ongoing Tariff negotiate between the U.S. government and other countries can create uncertainty. While the(fn.oix} projection by the Federal Reserve earlier this year may support further improvement, the current lack of clarity on the U.S. tariff negotiations remains a barrier. Nevertheless, the National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index suggests that the economy could stabilize if the U.S. remains free of the Tariff, though other factors like inflation and global economic conditions could still pose risks.
Biz2Credit CEO Rohit Arora has highlighted that while small businesses’ earnings have improved by 75% from 2025, this year’s improvement was significant. However, the rise has been tempered by the U.S. highest-tax year in decades, as the Big Beautiful Bill extended the Wheeler programs, which are meant to restore some of the cuts originally made in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Arora emphasizes that this stability will help small businesses in the long run, as the bill will likely continue to have a permanent impact over time. He also points out that despite the timeline for the next administration to end its Tariff negotiations being unclear, other interest rate cuts in the coming months could further support the economy.
Frombes, an external quote, concludes that small business optimism is important as U.S. facing tough trade deals, and the economy is facing historic challenges. The Biden administration has already canceled various trade deals and are set to implement new ones, which the NFIBO projection suggests may support recovery, though the Fed rate cuts still pose a concern. Overall, the small business sector remains a key driver of economic growth, but the path to recovery remains uncertain, especially with the Tariff issues and the lack of clearAnticipatedFiscalrate changes. Small businesses, like the NFIBO index, are far from at 98, and champions likecobring资金have shown that even optimistic small businesses face steady growth only if broader ceilings are avoided.
