Ripple’s Garlinghouse Boosts Odds to 90% for Swift Crypto Clarity Act Passage
In the fast-evolving world of cryptocurrency regulation, few voices carry the weight of someone who’s been in the trenches of legal battles and industry transformations. Brad Garlinghouse, the outspoken CEO of Ripple, a fintech giant known for its XRP-based payment solutions, recently dialed up his optimism for the Clarity Act—a proposed piece of legislation aimed at providing much-needed regulatory clarity for the digital asset sector. With White House influence mounting and bipartisan support solidifying, Garlinghouse now pegs the chances of the bill becoming law by the end of April at 90%, a significant leap from his previous 80% estimate. This bullish outlook not only outpaces the skepticism evident in prediction markets but also reflects a broader, accelerating push toward stabilizing the Wild West of crypto regulations in the United States.
Garlinghouse’s revised forecast comes at a pivotal moment, as policymakers in Washington race against a self-imposed March 1 deadline to advance the bill before the 2024 midterm elections potentially complicate matters. The Clarity Act, formally known as the “Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act,” seeks to modernize how federal authorities oversee cryptocurrencies, introducing definitions for terms like “digital asset” and “stablecoin” while empowering regulators like the SEC and CFTC to craft rules that balance innovation with investor protection. For Ripple, embroiled in a longstanding legal dispute with the SEC over XRP’s classification as a security, clarity here is not just desirable—it’s essential. “The White House is pushing hard on this, and I think that is a big reason why it will get done. It needs to get done for U.S. leadership,” Garlinghouse told reporters, underscoring the geopolitical implications of U.S. crypto policy lagging behind international rivals like the EU and Singapore.
What sets Garlinghouse’s 90% prediction apart is its contrast with the more cautious probabilities offered by prediction markets, platforms where traders bet on real-world outcomes. On Polymarket, the odds for the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 hover around 72%, a modest uptick from earlier levels but still well below the CEO’s near-term conviction. Kalshi, another prediction exchange, estimates an 85% chance of passage before 2027, a 63% likelihood by June, and only 48% by May. These figures capture the market’s tempered enthusiasm, shaped by historical delays in crypto legislation—think the slow grind of past bills like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which touched on digital assets in amendments. Yet, for Garlinghouse, the divergence isn’t just numbers; it’s a sign of underappreciated momentum. As someone who’s testified before Congress and navigated SEC lawsuits, he views the administration’s involvement as a game-changer, pointing to a White House-hosted meeting where crypto leaders and banking executives hashed out compromises.
At the heart of the legislative hurdles is a contentious debate over stablecoin incentives—a provision that could allow or prohibit crypto platforms from offering rewards, such as interest yields, to users migrating funds from traditional banks. Critics argue this might incentivize risky behavior, potentially destabilizing financial systems reminiscent of the 2008 crisis amplified by digital speed. Garlinghouse, however, frames it as a necessary evolution. “Our position is very much: don’t let perfection be the enemy of progress,” he explained in an interview, acknowledging that no bill is flawless but emphasizing that paralysis over imperfections benefits no one. “I think it got stalled because some in the industry are pushing for something a little bit more perfect. Our view is we need clarity.” This pragmatic stance echoes Ripple’s own history: the company has long advocated for defined rules to foster competition, especially as banks eye the lucrative world of blockchain-based payments. The CEO noted a sea change among legacy institutions, where executives once wary of crypto now demand “clear rules of the road” to level the playing field.
As the crypto market matures, with billions in assets under management, the push for regulatory frameworks like the Clarity Act isn’t isolated. It aligns with global trends, such as the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which went into effect in January 2025, classifying assets and setting standards for transparency. In the U.S., the SEC’s aggressive stances—evident in cases against companies like Binance and Coinbase—have contributed to market volatility, deterring institutional investment. Garlinghouse sees the bill as a corrective measure, potentially attracting more capital to American firms and reinforcing the nation’s innovative edge. “I love that. That means the traditional financial industry is coming into the crypto industry more and more,” he said, highlighting how banks are increasingly integrating blockchain tech to streamline cross-border transfers. Over the next decade, he predicts this convergence will accelerate, turning potential rivals into collaborators under unified oversight.
Ultimately, Garlinghouse’s 90% confidence signals a tipping point for crypto’s regulatory saga, where optimism from industry titans meets tangible governmental action. If the bill clears by April, as he anticipates, it could pave the way for stablecoins, decentralized exchanges, and other innovations to flourish without the constant threat of legal ambiguity. Yet, prediction markets remind us of the uncertainties—political gridlock, midterm jockeying, and unforeseen amendments could still derail progress. For now, though, the winds of change are blowing strongly, propelled by an administration determined to assert U.S. dominance in digital finance. Investors, entrepreneurs, and onlookers alike are watching closely, knowing that clarity in crypto isn’t just about rules—it’s about unlocking the full potential of a trillion-dollar industry poised to redefine global economics. As Garlinghouse puts it, “The tides have changed significantly,” and with them, the fortunes of an ecosystem eager for definitive direction.
