Bearish Crypto Influencer Scores $200,000 Win Predicting Bitcoin’s Fall Below $100K

Keyboard Monkey’s Bold Bet Pays Off as Bitcoin Market Experiences Dramatic Volatility

In a dramatic vindication of market skepticism, crypto influencer Keyboard Monkey has claimed a $200,000 prize after correctly predicting Bitcoin’s recent crash below the psychological $100,000 barrier. The cryptocurrency’s 17% monthly collapse marked the first time in six months that Bitcoin has traded below this significant threshold, culminating in the resolution of a high-stakes wager that had captivated the crypto community for weeks.

The victory came following a nail-biting prediction battle against fellow influencer Mando, who had taken the opposite position. The bet’s straightforward premise—would Bitcoin drop to $100,000 before reaching $120,000—played out across 23 days of extreme market volatility that saw sentiment shift repeatedly, with the outcome remaining uncertain until the final moments.

The Wager: How Two Influencers Put Their Money Where Their Predictions Were

The high-profile bet was facilitated by Myriad, an emerging prediction market platform developed by Dastan (the parent company of cryptocurrency news outlet Decrypt). Myriad served as the trusted intermediary, holding the considerable $200,000 stake in escrow while simultaneously tracking public sentiment through its prediction market functionality, providing real-time odds on the outcome.

What makes this wager particularly notable was not merely its size, but the transparency with which it played out. As Myriad announced on its social media channels after the market’s conclusion: “After $1.15M of volume and $11.5K in fees, the prediction was finally settled… @KeyboardMonkey3 came out victorious over @RektMando as BTC fell below the $100K mark. This is the first of many PVP markets that we will be running on MYRIAD.”

The platform’s role illustrates the growing sophistication of cryptocurrency betting markets, where participants can not only speculate on asset prices but also engage with prediction markets that gauge community sentiment around specific outcomes—effectively creating a metacommentary on the volatility that defines digital asset trading.

Market Turbulence: The Catalyst for a High-Stakes Challenge

The origins of this financial duel can be traced back to the record-breaking market correction on October 10, which saw an unprecedented $19 billion liquidation cascade triggered by geopolitical tensions. When U.S. President Donald Trump threatened significant tariffs against China, Bitcoin responded with an 8% drop, plummeting from $121,000 to $111,000 in just 24 hours, according to cryptocurrency data provider CoinGecko.

This dramatic market movement prompted Keyboard Monkey to express his bearish outlook on social media platform X: “Extremely confident in sub-$100,000 BTC.” The declaration caught the attention of Mando, who countered with his own bullish prediction, suggesting Bitcoin would reach $120,000 before falling to $100,000. His challenge—”Let’s get a prediction market going on this thing”—received a confident “Sure, easy win” from Keyboard Monkey, setting the stage for what would become one of the most closely watched prediction contests in recent crypto memory.

Both influencers committed $100,000 to the wager, with the entirety of the $200,000 pool destined for whoever proved correct. The substantial sum underscored both participants’ conviction in their market outlook, while simultaneously elevating public interest in the contest.

A Rollercoaster of Odds: Nine Reversals in 23 Days

What followed was a remarkable demonstration of Bitcoin’s notorious price volatility, with Keyboard Monkey’s odds of victory fluctuating dramatically throughout the contest period. When the prediction market opened, his chances of winning stood at a mere 24% as Bitcoin staged a partial recovery to $115,000, suggesting market confidence in continued upward momentum.

However, this optimism proved short-lived. Over the following four days, Bitcoin tumbled to $105,000, causing a dramatic shift in sentiment that propelled Keyboard Monkey’s odds to 68.7%. This pattern of reversals became a defining feature of the contest, with the odds flipping between the two competitors no fewer than nine times over the market’s 23-day lifespan.

The volatility created a compelling narrative that kept observers glued to both price charts and prediction market odds. Just over a week before the contest’s resolution, Bitcoin surged to $115,513, pushing Keyboard Monkey’s odds down to 27% and seemingly validating Mando’s bullish stance. By October 27, with Bitcoin hovering near $115,000 and trade war tensions between the U.S. and China showing signs of easing, Mando appeared poised for victory with a 73% probability of winning according to Myriad’s prediction market.

The Final Plunge: How Market Sentiment Shifted

The apparent trajectory toward Mando’s victory was dramatically interrupted by market developments in the contest’s final days. What had seemed like a local top at $115,000 proved to be precisely that—a temporary peak before a significant downturn. Bitcoin plunged 13% over the following week, driven by multiple billion-dollar liquidation events that collectively devastated the market.

These consecutive days of heavy selling pressure, each featuring approximately $1 billion in liquidations, ultimately pushed Bitcoin below the critical $100,000 threshold for the first time since May 2025. The breach of this significant psychological level not only confirmed Keyboard Monkey’s prediction but also demonstrated how quickly sentiment can shift in cryptocurrency markets.

The timing could hardly have been more dramatic for the contestants. With Bitcoin’s price having approached within striking distance of $120,000—which would have secured victory for Mando—the subsequent reversal and collapse below $100,000 represented a complete inversion of market expectations in a remarkably short timeframe.

Implications for Prediction Markets and Crypto Sentiment Analysis

Upon claiming his $200,000 prize, Keyboard Monkey offered a characteristically succinct comment on social media: “The good guys won.” Beyond the financial outcome for the two influencers, however, this high-profile prediction contest holds broader significance for cryptocurrency markets and sentiment analysis.

The engagement generated by the wager—with Myriad reporting over $1.15 million in volume and $11,500 in fees—demonstrates the growing appetite for prediction markets that allow participants to speculate on specific outcomes within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. This represents a layer of meta-analysis built atop traditional cryptocurrency trading, where market participants can express conviction not just through direct asset purchases but through dedicated wagers on price milestones.

Furthermore, the contest highlighted the extraordinary difficulty of making short-term price predictions in cryptocurrency markets, even for experienced influencers. Despite Bitcoin’s overall upward trajectory in 2025, the asset’s characteristic volatility continues to create opportunities for both bulls and bears to find periods that validate their outlook.

For retail investors and institutional participants alike, the lesson remains clear: cryptocurrency markets can reverse direction with stunning speed, influenced by a complex interplay of technical factors, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment. Keyboard Monkey’s successful prediction serves as a reminder that even during generally bullish market cycles, significant corrections remain not only possible but probable.

As prediction markets like Myriad continue to evolve and attract capital, they may increasingly serve as valuable sentiment indicators for the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, providing real-time insight into how market participants view the probability of specific outcomes. In this sense, Keyboard Monkey’s victory represents not just a personal windfall, but a case study in how decentralized prediction markets are creating new ways to quantify and trade on market sentiment in the rapidly evolving digital asset landscape.