Arthur Hayes Predicts Extended Crypto Bull Run Amid Global Monetary Expansion

BitMEX Co-Founder Sees Current Bitcoin Rally as Just the Beginning of a Multi-Year Cycle

In a financial landscape increasingly shaped by unprecedented monetary policies, one of cryptocurrency’s most influential voices is predicting that the current bull market has significant room to grow. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, believes global monetary trends are only in their early stages, setting the stage for what could be years of continued crypto asset appreciation.

Speaking candidly in a recent interview with Web3 entrepreneur Kyle Chassé, Hayes painted a picture of government monetary expansion that’s far from reaching its peak. His analysis comes at a critical juncture for cryptocurrency markets, which have seen bitcoin reach historic highs above $124,000 in mid-August before consolidating in recent weeks. Rather than viewing this consolidation as a warning sign, Hayes interprets it as a natural pause in what will likely be a much longer upward trajectory extending potentially through 2026.

Global Monetary Policies and Political Catalysts Fuel Hayes’ Bullish Outlook

The BitMEX co-founder’s optimism stems largely from his assessment of global political and economic trends, with particular attention to upcoming developments in U.S. fiscal policy. Hayes specifically highlighted President Donald Trump’s second term, suggesting that the administration’s most significant spending programs have yet to materialize. According to Hayes, the real monetary expansion may not begin in earnest until mid-2026, creating a runway for continued asset appreciation across both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

“Investors are dramatically underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto,” Hayes remarked during the interview, though he acknowledged that extreme money-printing expectations might eventually prompt him to consider taking partial profits. His perspective is anchored in historical observations that periods of geopolitical instability typically drive policymakers toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as mechanisms to maintain social and market stability.

Hayes extended his analysis beyond the United States, pointing to potential fractures within the European economic framework. In a particularly bold prediction, he suggested that fiscal strains could lead to scenarios as serious as a French default, which would fundamentally destabilize the euro. Such developments would likely accelerate global monetary expansion as policymakers scramble to contain the fallout. While acknowledging that such policies ultimately carry significant risks, Hayes maintained that the market cycle’s climactic phase remains in the future rather than the past.

Bitcoin’s Performance in Context: A Historical Perspective on Asset Classes

Addressing concerns about bitcoin’s recent price consolidation after reaching all-time highs, Hayes offered a broader contextual analysis that places cryptocurrency performance in stark relief against traditional asset classes. He noted that while U.S. equities have posted impressive dollar-denominated gains, they haven’t fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis – a benchmark he considers significant for measuring real value preservation.

Hayes expanded this comparative analysis to include real estate, which he similarly characterized as underperforming when measured against gold. According to his assessment, only a select group of dominant U.S. technology companies have demonstrated consistent outperformance across multiple metrics. The BitMEX co-founder’s most striking claim, however, was that when measured against bitcoin, virtually all traditional financial benchmarks appear weak by comparison.

“Once you view asset performance through the lens of currency debasement, bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer,” Hayes explained, suggesting that conventional performance metrics often obscure the true picture of value creation and preservation in an era of aggressive monetary policy. This perspective reframes the cryptocurrency not merely as a speculative asset but as a fundamental measuring stick for value in an environment of persistent currency depreciation.

Shared Premises: How Traditional and Crypto Investors View Monetary Policy

In one of the interview’s more nuanced observations, Hayes suggested that investors from traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets actually operate from the same fundamental premise: the belief that governments and central banks will inevitably print money whenever economic growth falters. The difference, in his view, lies not in the underlying assumption but in how investors position themselves in response to this shared expectation.

“Traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage,” Hayes noted, contrasting this approach with cryptocurrency investors who hold bitcoin as what he termed the “faster horse” in the race against currency debasement. This framing presents bitcoin not as an alternative to conventional investing strategies but as an optimized response to the same economic conditions that drive traditional market behaviors.

For investors expressing frustration that bitcoin isn’t consistently posting new record highs, Hayes offered a recalibration of expectations. He emphasized that cryptocurrency investment requires a longer time horizon than many participants currently employ, suggesting that the real advantage comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term price movements. This patient approach, he argued, is essential for capitalizing on bitcoin’s structural advantages in an environment of continuing monetary expansion.

The Long View: Why Hayes Believes This Crypto Cycle Could Last Until 2026

Hayes concluded his analysis with a decidedly long-term perspective, arguing that the current cryptocurrency cycle could extend well into 2026 – far longer than many market participants currently anticipate. This timeline aligns with his broader expectations for continued global monetary expansion throughout the remainder of the decade, creating what he sees as a supportive environment for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets.

“Patience is essential in this market,” Hayes emphasized, suggesting that investors who maintain conviction through short-term volatility will ultimately be rewarded with significant outperformance. His outlook combines macroeconomic analysis with a deep understanding of cryptocurrency market cycles, presenting a compelling case for sustained bull market conditions despite inevitable periods of consolidation and volatility.

For market participants attempting to navigate the complex intersection of traditional finance, cryptocurrency innovation, and unprecedented monetary policy, Hayes offers a framework that prioritizes long-term positioning over reactive trading. If his analysis proves correct, the current period of price consolidation may represent not the end of a cycle but merely a pause in what could become one of the most significant wealth creation events in modern financial history – driven by the very monetary policies that cryptocurrency was designed to hedge against.