Bitcoin’s Stunning Trajectory: Tiger Research Sets Bold $190,000 Target for Q3
Record Global Liquidity and Institutional Adoption Fuel Unprecedented Growth Potential
In a bullish assessment that has captured the attention of investors worldwide, Asia-focused Tiger Research has established an ambitious third-quarter price target of $190,000 for Bitcoin (BTC), representing a potential 67% surge from its current trading range around $113,000. The forecast, which stands as one of the most optimistic on Wall Street, comes amid what analysts describe as the strongest market foundation since the landmark bull run of 2021. This confluence of macroeconomic tailwinds, institutional adoption, and regulatory breakthroughs has created what many consider a perfect storm for cryptocurrency’s flagship asset.
Tiger’s comprehensive analysis employs a multi-layered valuation model that begins with a “base price” of $135,000 before applying additional multipliers for fundamental strength (+3.5%) and favorable macroeconomic conditions (+35%) to arrive at the $190,000 projection. This methodology reflects the increasingly sophisticated approaches being used to value digital assets, moving beyond simplistic supply-demand calculations to incorporate broader economic indicators. “We’re witnessing an unprecedented alignment of factors that suggest Bitcoin has entered a new phase of its institutional lifecycle,” noted the report, highlighting how traditional valuation frameworks are evolving to accommodate cryptocurrency’s unique market dynamics.
The Triple Engine of Growth: Money Supply, ETF Demand, and Retirement Access
The forecast rests on three pillars that Tiger Research believes will propel Bitcoin to new heights in the coming months. First, the global M2 money supply has swelled beyond $90 trillion, creating a liquidity environment that historically correlates with rising asset prices across categories. Second, the rapid accumulation by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries has already removed approximately 6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply from the market, creating structural scarcity. Third, and perhaps most significantly, regulatory developments have opened the floodgates for retirement account investments in digital assets. The Trump administration’s executive order allowing 401(k) exposure to cryptocurrencies represents what Tiger calls “a definitive signal of bitcoin’s transition to a core institutional holding.” The implications are staggering—even a conservative 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion retirement pool would inject nearly $90 billion of fresh capital into the Bitcoin market.
Evidence of institutional accumulation has become increasingly visible on the blockchain. Collectively, ETFs now hold approximately 1.3 million BTC, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) has amassed an impressive portfolio exceeding 629,000 coins, valued at approximately $71 billion. MicroStrategy’s strategic approach, utilizing convertible bonds to finance acquisitions, has added a structural quality to market flows that differs markedly from previous cycles dominated by speculative retail trading. This shift is further reflected in on-chain metrics showing fewer but larger transactions, indicating a transformation from retail-dominated traffic to institutional block activity. “The character of Bitcoin ownership is fundamentally changing,” the report observes, “with sophisticated institutional investors establishing long-term positions rather than seeking short-term trading profits.”
Warning Signs: Network Activity Lags Despite Price Momentum
Despite the overwhelmingly positive outlook, Tiger Research acknowledges certain imbalances in network fundamentals that warrant attention. Daily transaction volumes and active user metrics remain significantly below last year’s peaks, suggesting a concerning divergence between price action and actual network usage. This decline in retail participation could indicate an unhealthy concentration of ownership or signal that Bitcoin’s value proposition as a payment network has temporarily taken a backseat to its appeal as an investment asset. The report emphasizes that initiatives like BTCFi (Bitcoin-based decentralized finance) will be crucial to reinvigorating activity beyond institutional wallets and ensuring sustainable growth across the ecosystem. “For Bitcoin to realize its full potential, we need to see broader participation beyond institutional custodial solutions,” the researchers cautioned, highlighting the importance of retail engagement in maintaining network health.
Several key on-chain indicators also flash caution signs that temperate Tiger’s otherwise bullish outlook. The MVRV-Z score, which measures how far market price has stretched above the cost basis of Bitcoin holders, currently sits at 2.49—historically a zone that has preceded market corrections as profit-taking pressures mount. Similarly, the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (ASOPR) hovers around 1.019, indicating that coins currently being sold are only marginally profitable. This suggests a market where traders are securing modest gains rather than experiencing the euphoric profit-taking typical of market tops. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric stands at 0.558, reflecting a market that remains healthy but has not yet reached the extreme positioning associated with cycle peaks. Collectively, these metrics paint a picture of a market that is heating up but hasn’t yet entered the dangerous territory of overextension.
The Institutional Revolution: From Retail Speculation to Strategic Asset
The remarkable transformation of Bitcoin from a speculative digital curiosity to a strategic institutional asset represents one of the most significant financial developments of the decade. The entrance of major Wall Street players through regulated ETF products has fundamentally altered market dynamics, bringing enhanced liquidity, reduced volatility, and improved price discovery mechanisms. This institutional embrace extends beyond passive investment vehicles, with corporate treasury adoption led by visionaries like MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor establishing a new paradigm for corporate cash management in an inflationary environment. “What we’re witnessing isn’t merely a price rally, but a structural realignment of Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system,” the report states, emphasizing the long-term implications of this institutional adoption wave.
As Bitcoin approaches the $200,000 threshold that few would have deemed possible even a year ago, the cryptocurrency market stands at a pivotal juncture. Tiger Research’s forecast represents not just a price prediction but a broader thesis about Bitcoin’s evolving position within the institutional investment landscape. While acknowledging the potential for short-term volatility and correction risks, the report maintains that the combination of global liquidity conditions, structural ETF demand, and expanded retirement account access creates an unprecedented foundation for sustained growth. As traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets continue their convergence, investors are witnessing what may be remembered as a historic transition in how value is stored, transferred, and conceptualized in the digital age. The journey toward $190,000 will likely include both dramatic rallies and sharp corrections, but the underlying trajectory reflects Bitcoin’s remarkable maturation from digital experiment to institutional cornerstone.
