Bitcoin Whales Swim Against the Tide as Price Tests Critical $109K Support Level

Market Navigates Unexpected October Downturn as Institutions Show Strengthening Conviction

In a surprising departure from its historically bullish October performance, Bitcoin has tested investor resolve this month with a sustained correction that has brought the leading cryptocurrency back to a critical on-chain support level. Trading at $109,870 as of Friday after a modest 1.5% relief rally, Bitcoin appears poised at a decisive junction that analysts suggest could determine the direction of the market for the remainder of the year. Despite retail anxiety following the recent pullback, on-chain data reveals large holders continue accumulating, signaling strong institutional conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Whales Step In as Bitcoin Price Tests $109K Floor After October Slide

October 2025 has defied historical expectations, with Bitcoin tracking toward a monthly close 3.5% lower than where it began. Currently trading at $109,476 with a market capitalization of $2.18 trillion, Bitcoin’s performance contradicts the typically positive sentiment associated with the month. The unexpected downturn stems from multiple converging factors, including escalating geopolitical trade tensions, a significant market-wide deleveraging event on October 10th, technical breakdowns, and a recent hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve.

This correction has pushed Bitcoin back to the 0.85 cost-basis band, a level that on-chain analysis from Glassnode identifies as a historically significant pivot zone. This threshold has repeatedly served as a decisive inflection point throughout Bitcoin’s market cycles, often determining whether price action will resume an uptrend or extend into deeper correction territory. Historical patterns suggest that if Bitcoin maintains support at this level, a bullish rally could resume; however, failure to hold this floor could trigger a more significant retracement toward the 0.75 band near $98,000.

Institutional Confidence Evident Despite Market Turbulence

While price action has cooled, institutional engagement appears to be heating up. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that the average spot trade size on Binance surged dramatically in October, reaching approximately $1.96 million per trade—one of the highest figures recorded in recent months. This substantial increase in average order size indicates that high-net-worth investors and institutional players are actively positioning themselves in the market despite the contained price volatility.

“The significant uptick in average trade size suggests sophisticated investors are taking advantage of the current price dip to accumulate positions,” noted a market analyst reviewing the CryptoQuant data. “Historically, such patterns of institutional engagement during corrections have preceded substantial market recoveries.”

This institutional confidence is further evidenced by Binance’s total Bitcoin spot trading volume, which reached approximately $2.82 billion. The simultaneous increase in both average trade size and total volume underscores the active participation of larger market entities, even as retail sentiment wavers in response to the recent price decline. This divergence between retail uncertainty and institutional conviction often emerges at pivotal market junctures.

Technical Analysis Points to Expanding Channel Pattern

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action reveals a more complex picture. This week has seen Bitcoin reverse from $116,381 to $109,502, marking a 5.91% decline. The increasing length of red candles accompanied by rising trading volumes emphasizes seller determination to drive a prolonged correction. Even Friday’s positive price movement showed an 8.86% decline in trading volume compared to previous sessions, suggesting limited buying pressure.

The cryptocurrency is currently testing support at the 200-day exponential moving average, a critical technical indicator that has historically provided reliable support during bull market corrections. A breakdown below this level could accelerate selling pressure, potentially driving prices down by another 5.3% to test the bottom trendline of an expanding channel at approximately $102,560.

This expanding channel pattern, characterized by diverging trendlines that create progressively larger price swings with each cycle, reflects growing market uncertainty. Technical analysts note that such patterns often emerge during periods of transition, when market participants are reassessing fundamental value propositions and macroeconomic influences. Should Bitcoin breach the lower boundary of this pattern, it could potentially trigger a psychological shift that pushes prices below the significant $100,000 threshold.

On-Chain Metrics Suggest Critical Decision Point

Bitcoin’s retreat to the 0.85 cost-basis band at approximately $109,000 represents more than just a technical level—it’s a significant on-chain threshold that has historically marked major shifts in market cycles. Glassnode’s comprehensive data analysis demonstrates that this particular cost basis has frequently served as the dividing line between recoveries and deeper corrections throughout Bitcoin’s history.

“What makes the current situation particularly compelling is the historical context of this specific cost basis level,” explained a senior on-chain analyst. “When Bitcoin has maintained support above the 0.85 band during previous corrections, it has typically resumed its uptrend relatively quickly. Conversely, failures at this level have consistently preceded extensions to the 0.75 band, which would translate to approximately $98,000 in the current context.”

This historical pattern creates a clear binary scenario for Bitcoin in the coming weeks: either the current support holds, validating the thesis that this correction represents a healthy bull market pullback, or support fails, potentially triggering a more substantial drawdown that could test both investor conviction and the psychological significance of the six-figure valuation.

Market Outlook: Balancing Caution and Opportunity

As Bitcoin navigates this critical support level, market participants face a complex decision-making environment. While technical indicators suggest potential further downside, the strong institutional engagement revealed by trading volume analysis presents a compelling counterargument for long-term optimism.

For investors attempting to interpret these mixed signals, historical context provides valuable perspective. Bitcoin’s market cycles have consistently featured substantial corrections even during broader bull markets. The current 5.91% retracement from recent highs remains relatively modest compared to historical bull market pullbacks, which have frequently exceeded 30% before resuming upward momentum.

“What’s particularly interesting about the current market structure is the clear divergence between retail sentiment and institutional behavior,” noted a veteran market strategist. “While smaller investors appear increasingly nervous about the recent price action, larger players are demonstrating conviction through their accumulation patterns. Historically, following the smart money during such divergences has proven rewarding.”

As the market approaches the November monthly open, all eyes will be on whether Bitcoin can maintain support at the critical $109,000 level. If buyers successfully defend this threshold, the expanding channel pattern suggests potential for a renewed recovery that could challenge previous highs. However, should sellers overcome this support, the path toward $100,000 and potentially the lower 0.75 cost-basis band near $98,000 becomes increasingly probable. Either scenario promises to deliver valuable insights into Bitcoin’s evolving market dynamics as it continues to mature as an institutional-grade financial asset.