The Fiery Frontier: How Communities Can Survive Wildfires
In a dramatic demonstration at the National Fire Research Laboratory in Gaithersburg, Maryland, bright embers float through smoky air toward a test structure. These tiny burning specks—each just centimeters in size—might seem insignificant against the one-story building, but they represent one of the greatest threats to homes in wildfire zones. Research shows these windborne embers cause between 60 to 90 percent of home ignitions during wildfires. As scientists watch, the embers find their way into an open trash bin containing cardboard. Within seconds, flames sprout inside; within minutes, fire climbs the house’s wall, peeling away vinyl siding and creating a crackling fissure that soon engulfs the structure in orange, blue, and purple flames.
This controlled experiment, overseen by Alexander Maranghides, a fire protection engineer at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), demonstrates how quickly embers can destroy homes—and why traditional approaches to wildfire management are failing communities. The urgent challenge facing researchers isn’t just understanding wildfire behavior, but protecting the estimated 3.5 billion people worldwide who live in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where human development meets natural areas like forests and grasslands. Climate change has made fire seasons longer, hotter, and drier, while powerful winds can carry embers for kilometers, overwhelming entire communities. “Wildfire control doesn’t work during the extreme conditions,” says Jack Cohen, a retired U.S. Forest Service fire scientist with decades of experience. “It’s not a wildfire problem. It’s a structure ignition problem.”
Scientists like Maranghides have developed comprehensive guidelines for making communities more resilient, including NIST’s Hazard Mitigation Methodology (HMM) released in 2022. This methodology identifies dozens of vulnerabilities and solutions, but highlights a crucial reality: in neighborhoods where homes are closely spaced, fire resilience requires community-wide participation. When homes are within about 50 feet of each other, hardening only some structures leaves all of them vulnerable. Once a single home ignites, it threatens everything nearby. The only effective protection comes from hardening the entire community against fire.
The devastating Camp Fire that destroyed Paradise, California in November 2018 provided critical insights into wildfire behavior in communities. NIST researchers arrived while flames were still burning and spent years analyzing data from multiple sources. Their comprehensive investigation revealed how embers can travel kilometers ahead of the main fire front, creating a “hopscotch” pattern that overwhelms firefighting efforts. These field observations guide laboratory experiments that help determine specific vulnerabilities, such as how fences can act as fire conduits and how burning sheds can shoot jets of flame toward homes.
NIST’s Hazard Mitigation Methodology combines two essential approaches: hardening structures against flames using resilient designs and materials (like metal siding at wall bases), and removing or relocating materials that could ignite from embers (such as patio furniture or plants). Unlike conventional fire codes, the methodology emphasizes community-scale efforts, recognizing that fire doesn’t respect property lines. “Your parcel could be pristine, so that you could have done everything right, but those neighboring parcels all around you have to also be prepared,” explains Michele Steinberg, wildfire division director of the National Fire Protection Association.
The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety has developed a similar standard called the Wildfire Prepared Neighborhood Standard, which aligns with NIST’s findings but also certifies homes and communities that meet the requirements. This certification may help homeowners secure insurance at a time when many companies are dropping policies due to climate disasters. Earlier this year, a new development called Dixon Trail in Escondido, California became the first community to receive this designation. Its 64 homes feature enclosed eaves to keep out embers, dual-paned tempered glass windows resistant to heat, metal fences that won’t burn, and a five-foot zone around each house that’s free of combustible materials.
While new developments like Dixon Trail showcase what’s possible, the greatest challenge lies in retrofitting existing homes. In California, a state-led initiative called the California Wildfire Mitigation Program is working with FEMA and local organizations to help residents in high-risk areas like Kelseyville Riviera on Clear Lake’s southern shore. “Pretty much everyone who lives here or lives in the surrounding area has been traumatized by fire one way or another,” says Deanna Fernweh, a local resident who manages the program for North Coast Opportunities, a nonprofit leading the project.
The initiative, still in its pilot phase, has completed about 70 home retrofits across California, with hundreds more in progress or assessment. Costs range from $36,000 to $110,000 per home. Program leaders hope to scale up efforts once they submit a comprehensive report to the California legislature in 2028. The need is vast—U.S. Census Bureau data shows that new homes built from 2020 through 2022 make up only 2 percent of owner-occupied homes, underlining the importance of retrofitting existing structures.
The challenge of protecting communities against wildfire requires coordination across multiple levels of government and private entities. “No single entity—federal, state, local, public or private—actually has full authority over this issue,” notes Frank Frievalt, director of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Institute at Cal Poly. In the meantime, he advises residents not to wait for official action but to implement protective measures themselves using guidelines from NIST and the Insurance Institute. “Don’t wait on your local government, don’t wait on your insurance, don’t wait on a fire inspection,” Frievalt says. “The goal is not insurability. The goal is survivability.”
Despite the challenges, experts remain optimistic about solving the wildfire threat to communities. Maranghides envisions a future where wildfires approaching properly hardened communities simply peter out. Unlike earthquakes, tornadoes, and other natural hazards, fire may be the natural phenomenon most within our control to mitigate. As Maranghides puts it, “In a tornado… the energy is in the atmosphere. Here, the energy is in the community.” With proper preparation and community-wide participation, wildfire may remain inevitable, but community destruction doesn’t have to be.
