Bitcoin Bottom Likely In, Claims Analyst with 90% Confidence Ahead of Fed Meeting

Market Rebound from $107,200 Sparks Optimism Among Cryptocurrency Experts

The recent recovery in Bitcoin’s price after touching a low of $107,200 has ignited significant discussion within the cryptocurrency community about whether the market has established its local bottom and is now positioned for an upward trajectory. This rebound comes at a particularly interesting time, with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting potentially serving as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next major move. Independent cryptocurrency analyst known as Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) has staked a bold claim, asserting there’s a “90%+” probability that the market has already reached its bottom, citing both technical price structures and his proprietary “FOMC reversal confluence” analytical framework.

Analyst’s Successful Track Record Bolsters Credibility of Bottom Prediction

Astronomer, who gained credibility by accurately predicting Bitcoin’s short-term bearish movement from $123,000 down to the $110,000-$111,000 range, has now reversed his position. He publicly disclosed that he transitioned to a long position once his target zone was reached in late August. “Alright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough… there now is another confluence lining up,” he explained in his recent market analysis. The cornerstone of his methodology revolves around the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle, which he contends has historically functioned as a reliable turning point for Bitcoin price trends with remarkable consistency.

According to Astronomer’s analysis, “The FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times.” He elaborates that the few exceptions to this pattern typically occur when quarterly long-term cycles, which carry greater influence, override the FOMC effect. What makes this analysis particularly compelling is the suggestion that sophisticated market participants routinely front-run these Federal Reserve events. Institutional investors and well-capitalized traders effectively set the post-FOMC directional bias before retail investors even have an opportunity to process the meeting’s outcomes. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September 18, Astronomer argues that the downtrend from $123,000 to $110,000 has already exhausted itself ahead of the anticipated schedule, and a reversal to an upward trajectory is now underway.

FOMC Confluence Theory Challenges Conventional “Red September” Narrative

The analyst’s methodology stands in stark contrast to the prevailing sentiment within much of the cryptocurrency commentary ecosystem, where numerous influencers continue forecasting further downside and a traditionally bearish “red September” for Bitcoin. Astronomer dismisses such predictions as “utter nonsense” rooted in superficial seasonal analysis that lacks deeper market understanding. “Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation… insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,” he explained, emphasizing that generic warnings about market volatility ahead of central bank events fail to capture the structural shifts already taking place within the market.

This perspective challenges the conventional wisdom that September historically represents a weak month for Bitcoin performance. Astronomer points specifically to the previous two years as evidence that September’s reputation as a seasonally weak month has lost its statistical edge. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie cutter version of properly using cycles. Look at last two years, September has also been green and mean to the bears,” he noted. The analyst’s confidence appears well-founded thus far, as Bitcoin has climbed above $115,000 since his long entry at approximately $110,000, prompting him to declare the bearish September thesis already invalidated. “September will close green. Yup, Septembears officially 6% in the wrong now. As September opened at 108,299, and price is now at 115,000. That puts September in the upper historical quartile of how green it is at the moment,” he observed.

Multiple Confluent Factors Support Bullish Outlook Despite Seasonal Headwinds

The convergence of multiple analytical factors has strengthened Astronomer’s conviction that Bitcoin has established a sustainable bottom. “When many confluences point in the same direction, it usually means you have solved the Rubik’s cube correctly and so can confidently believe,” he stated. This confidence stems from the alignment of technical price action, historical FOMC meeting effects, and the invalidation of seasonal patterns that would typically suggest bearish momentum during September. These multiple confluent signals provide a more robust analytical framework than single-factor approaches that rely exclusively on historical seasonality or technical indicators in isolation.

Despite his high confidence level, Astronomer maintains disciplined risk management principles, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty in all market predictions. “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound,” he cautioned. This balanced approach to market speculation reflects the prudence necessary for sustainable trading success, regardless of analytical conviction. The combination of data-driven analysis and risk-aware position sizing demonstrates a sophisticated approach to cryptocurrency market participation that stands apart from the often emotionally-driven commentary that dominates social media platforms.

Market Awaits FOMC Meeting as Critical Test for Bitcoin’s Next Directional Move

With Bitcoin currently holding above the $115,000 level and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting just days away, market participants will soon have concrete evidence to evaluate whether Astronomer’s bottom formation thesis proves accurate. The upcoming FOMC meeting represents a critical inflection point that could either validate his analysis or challenge it, depending on both the meeting outcome and Bitcoin’s subsequent price action. What makes this particular juncture fascinating is the direct confrontation between Astronomer’s data-driven approach and the more traditional seasonal analysis suggesting September weakness.

The cryptocurrency market has matured significantly in recent years, with institutional participation increasing and market dynamics evolving beyond simple seasonal patterns. This evolution may explain why historically reliable seasonal trends have become less predictive. As sophisticated analysis frameworks like Astronomer’s gain traction, market participants may need to reevaluate simplistic approaches to market timing based solely on calendar months. The coming weeks will provide valuable data about whether front-running FOMC meetings continues to provide a reliable edge for cryptocurrency traders, as well as whether Bitcoin can sustain its recovery above the $115,000 level. For investors and traders alike, this represents not just a test of Bitcoin’s immediate price direction, but of competing analytical frameworks in an increasingly complex market environment. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve, so too must the methods used to understand and predict its movements.