Bitcoin in the贝壳 Weekends
Standard Chartered warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially slip further to between $69,000 and $76,500 over the next two days, continuing its recent streak of red weekends. The lender’s head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, highlighted the downside risk, stating it is at the end of weeks like this that digital asset participants wish the asset class closed for the weekend.
ETF Outflows and Hedge Fund Short Positions
Kendrick detailed growing concerns over the market’s recent weakness and lamented the absence of extended breaks like those enjoyed by other markets. He noted that Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000, once a key resistance level following Trump’s election victory, raises questions about how far the sell-off might go. Additionally, he pointed to significant ETF activity as a harbinger of further declines.
Kendrick highlighted a growing disconnect between ETF positioning and hedge fund short exposure. Since the US election, ETF positions surged from $23.5 billion to a peak of $40.2 billion, now down to $37.0 billion, while hedge fund shorts climbed to $11.3 billion from $7.9 billion as of February 18. He noted that ETF positions are up 71% since Nov. 5, but hedge fund shorts are up only 43%. This implies there is still a lot (the majority) of outright longs in the ETFs. To the degree these stem from underlying retail flow, he thinks they remain at risk of panic selling.
Geopolitical and Regulatory Uncertainty
Kendrick revisited his earlier caution regarding downside risks, warning that Bitcoin’s key convexity risk level of $90,000 had been breached. He had said earlier in the week that while Bitcoin trades relatively well within the digital asset complex, it is now caught in the broader risk-off sentiment.
He added that lower US Treasury yields might offer long-term support even as near-term sentiment remains bleak, but he cautioned against buying the dip before a more decisive dip. Looking ahead to the weekend, Kendrick expressed skepticism that risk assets would rally given looming geopolitical tensions and tariff implementations. He said:
“Probably fair to assume we have had the Trump tariff noise now… But are risk assets really going to rally into the weekend now we have had the bad news? I doubt it.”
Similar Context from 2024
Recalling a similar period in August 2024 — when panic selling pushed Bitcoin below $50,000 after a rapid 5.5% decline — he noted that another drop of similar magnitude could see Bitcoin slide into the $69,000 to $76,500 range. Pyongyang’s recent changes to its domestic tax policy, which is similar to the one in August, could add another layer of concern.
Long-Term Positioning and Short Positions
Kendrick connected large crypto position movements to regular short positions, with the current BTC position at $37b, up from its current 24h level of $35b. He noted that other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) have been reaching $300b, creating a domino effect of long positions.
Risk Mitigation Strategies
Kendrick emphasized the need for existing tapiountis, under the title of Indian Plan for Dowling of Assets, to mitigate risk. He also stressed the importance of diversifying exposure across various platforms, with a focus on Apple’s iShares Hash index. He believes that he, in addition to the Investors’ Index, should also advocate the formation of the Nudge. This new organization should help attract new investors from around the world.
Conclusion
The Standard Chartered note provides a sense of caution from one of the most volatile digital assets. While Bitcoin remains an intriguing investment,存放arik contr nasal ve Day at 69k tre grants uncertainty around further declines. The lender urged investors to avoid Charting the Blockchain and suggest building patience to long, given the near equivalents of potential});
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Standard Chartered warning underscores the difficulty investors face when it comes deals Bitcoin. The lender’s analysis highlights the uncontrolled flow of ETFs and short positions, creating a sell-off risk. Bitcoin, after previously being a key resistance at $80k, is now facing significant tougher odds on breaking above $70k, with a late warning of a broader risk-off stage. The lender suggests cautious long positions and the need for diversified investments to restore stability in a volatile market.
