Alright, let me break this down into a conversational narrative for you while ensuring all crucial points are highlighted!
Picture this: it’s early 2024, and President Trump, never one to shy away from bold moves, drops a policy bombshell that stuns North America. He announces sweeping tariffs: 25% on all Mexican and Canadian exports entering the U.S., with a slight exception for Canadian energy, which faces a 10% tariff. Instantly, his declaration ripples across borders, sparking concern and frustration in two nations deeply entwined with the U.S. economy. The leaders of Mexico and Canada are quick to respond, warning that this will disrupt the finely interwoven economic fabric between the three countries and inadvertently harm American consumers as well.
For his part, this isn’t a curveball from Trump—it’s more like a promise fulfilled. On his very first day in office during this new term, he had vowed to use economic levers like tariffs to push Mexico and Canada to clamp down harder on two persistent issues: migration (both undocumented and drug-related) and the trafficking of fentanyl into the United States. And he’s sticking to the playbook he’s returned to time and again: leveraging international trade relationships to achieve policy goals, even at the risk of escalating tensions.
Why Target Mexico?
To understand why Trump has his sights set on Mexico specifically, we need to revisit some campaign themes that have resurfaced since his re-election. His tough stance on immigration and border security remains central to his agenda. Trump claims that lax border management by Mexico has allowed a “mass invasion” of undocumented migrants into the United States. According to his narrative, it’s not just bodies crossing the U.S.–Mexico border—it’s a wave of drugs, especially fentanyl, that is ravaging American communities.
Interestingly enough, border crossings in 2024 are significantly lower than during peak years like 2023, but Trump uses the issue symbolically—it’s not just about numbers but appearing to “regain control.” This isn’t the first time he’s played this hand. Back in his first term, he similarly dangled the threat of tariffs to pressure Mexican leaders. And to his credit, it yielded concessions—Mexico ramped up its own enforcement measures and even expanded its role in the U.S. asylum system.
What Has Mexico Been Doing About Immigration?
Mexico hasn’t exactly been sitting idle. Under the previous administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and now President Claudia Sheinbaum’s leadership, there’s been a marked escalation in efforts to stem the flow of illegal migration. Mexico has developed an expansive web of immigration enforcement tactics: establishing hundreds of checkpoints that dot roads and border zones, conducting raids on hotels and buses frequently used by migrants, and installing new barriers to thwart crossings.
More than that, Mexican authorities have proactively moved migrants away from the northern border areas. By chartering flights and buses, they’ve relocated many migrants back to cities in Southern Mexico—nowhere near Tijuana or other key points of entry into the U.S. What’s more, bureaucratic hoops have been added, from withholding crucial immigration documents to applying stiffer controls on those transiting through the country. Say what you will about Trump’s tactics—his past-decade pressure on Mexico appears to have triggered a cascade of barriers aimed at dissuading mass migration up north.
In fact, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt highlighted this point just days ago. Trump’s administration, she noted, viewed Mexico’s actions as a “historic level of cooperation” on curbing border issues. There’s undoubtedly proof behind that—encounters at the U.S.–Mexico border have plummeted, even as migration flows remain a political lightning rod.
Fentanyl: Mexico’s Cooperation on Drug Enforcement
If immigration is one battleground, the fight against fentanyl is the other looming specter. The deadly drug has ravaged communities across the United States, often described as the epidemic of the decade. Much of it traces its roots back to Mexican cartels, with the Sinaloa cartel at the center of U.S. concerns. And it’s here that President Claudia Sheinbaum has delivered a starkly different response than her predecessor.
Under AMLO, drug crime policy leaned toward tackling socioeconomic roots rather than full-scale enforcement. Sheinbaum, in contrast, has leaned into aggressive drug-crime crackdowns during her first few months in office. Mexican forces have significantly ramped up operations: major fentanyl raids have been conducted, clandestine drug labs have been located and dismantled, and the Sinaloa cartel itself has been dealt serious blows. One standout moment? In December 2023, Mexico seized over a ton of fentanyl—the largest mass seizure of fentanyl pills in history, a haul equivalent to more than 20 million doses.
Beyond cartel raids and border policing, Sheinbaum has spearheaded reforms targeting the supply chain for fentanyl production. These include constitutional amendments outlawing the production, distribution, and sale of chemical precursors essential for creating synthetic drugs. In parallel, stiffer penalties for fentanyl-related offenses have been rolled out.
Sheinbaum’s government has arrested more than 10,000 individuals on serious criminal charges since October, seized drugs by the ton—including 1.3 tons of fentanyl—and brought nearly 140 illicit laboratories to the ground. Yet, as Mexican security analyst Eduardo Guerrero observes, the fight is far from over. “There are thousands of clandestine fentanyl kitchens in Sinaloa alone. The cartel is not going to hand everything over just because authorities ask,” Guerrero says. Even so, he concedes, Mexico’s efforts send a clear signal: they’re serious about fulfilling some of Trump’s demands.
The Diplomatic Dance
Trump’s tariff gambit is both carrot and stick. On one hand, it’s a hammer hitting Mexico’s trade engine; on the other, it’s a goad to keep progress rolling on everything from border security to drugs. But Sheinbaum isn’t just shrugging this off. She’s made a point of emphasizing Mexico’s contributions thus far.
In a letter to Trump after his re-election, Sheinbaum laid out Mexico’s progress. A 75% drop in border encounters? Evidence of a solid migration policy, she argued. Half of those who made it into the U.S. in 2024 came legally—with appointments scheduled via a now-defunct app introduced by Biden’s administration. According to Sheinbaum, caravan groups no longer flood the border precisely because of Mexican deterrence measures.
And when it comes to fentanyl, the Mexican leader reiterated her determination to prevent further American devastation. The destruction of labs, major seizures, and arrests weren’t just about optics—they were tangible deliverables in answering U.S. demands for action on this scourge.
Still, Sheinbaum knows retaliating with tariffs on U.S. goods is on the table. As the president said recently, Mexico is “prepared for any scenario.”
Ripples for the Economy
What does this all mean for the average Joe—and by extension, the economy? For American consumers, expect wallets to thin out. Tariffs on essentials like fruits, vegetables—even automobiles—could send prices soaring. U.S.-based manufacturers like General Motors and Ford, many of which depend on parts produced in Mexico, could see disruptions to supply chains, raising production costs at home. Canadian exports are similarly poised to feel the pinch of destabilized trade, particularly energy products.
Trade wars are rarely painless, and this one risks pulling all three economies into unfamiliar territory. But for Trump, there’s an inner logic. For years, he’s portrayed himself as the dealmaker unafraid to muscle his way into favorable terms, believing that the ends justify the means.
The Road Ahead
Trump’s tariffs are already tested waters for Mexico and Canada, but these new measures are blunt and sweeping. Will they compel Mexico to double down on their already significant crackdown efforts? Will they force Canada to extend cooperation on border security issues? These are open questions—and ones that will reverberate well beyond 2024.
For now, the tango continues. Between tough border policies, high-stakes trade disputes, and efforts to curb drug trafficking, the U.S.–Mexico dynamic is anything but static. Both sides know the stakes—economic, political, and human alike. As these policies unfold, only time will tell how much the neighbors can withstand before the fallout tips the scales.
