Imagine this: in the picturesque town of Davos, nestled high in the Swiss mountains and hosting the prestigious World Economic Forum, a room full of Ukrainian business leaders and diplomats gathers. They’re not celebrating a regional achievement, nor brainstorming innovative solutions for global problems—at least not in the traditional sense. Instead, their eyes are glued to massive screens streaming the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as he takes the oath of office to return as the President of the United States. On the surface, their enthusiasm is evident: bright red-and-blue cheeseburger buns are served as an homage to American culture, and a smattering of applause erupts as the ceremony concludes. Yet, beneath this carefully arranged display of optimism lies an undercurrent of tension, as much of Europe braces for the uncertainties of another Trump presidency.
The question hanging in the air was best articulated by Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine. “We expect President Trump to surprise us, but we do not know what the surprise will be,” he remarked, perfectly encapsulating both the anticipation and apprehension coursing through Washington’s allies and rivals alike. Europe, in particular, faces a familiar yet even more precarious challenge: how to navigate Trump’s mercurial leadership style during his second tenure when policies can oscillate between cooperative trade deals and sweeping threats of tariffs.
### A Quiet but Strategic Response
Behind the scenes in Brussels, the European Commission—the executive arm of the European Union—began preparing for this moment long before the election ballots were tallied. Though unofficially dubbed the “Trump task force,” this specialized group operated under a cloak of discretion throughout 2024, devising potential strategies to counter or adapt to any foreign policy curveballs from the second Trump administration. Led by Alejandro Caínzos, an international relations expert, the group focused heavily on developing responses to potential trade disputes, particularly around tariffs and energy policy.
Their subtlety was intentional. European officials learned hard lessons during Trump’s first administration when bombastic rhetoric occasionally devolved into punitive action, such as his surprise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that blindsided EU allies. This time, the EU opted for a more measured and disciplined approach, avoiding rash public reactions and instead keeping their cards close to their chest. As Jörn Fleck of the Atlantic Council observed, this restraint demonstrated an important “learning curve” for Europe, allowing them to prepare more effectively than in the previous Trump term.
Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, confirmed the task force’s existence, though he downplayed its colloquial moniker, emphasizing its broader role in preparing the bloc for multiple scenarios. Yet, as former European trade official Ignacio García Bercero noted, the stakes are significantly higher this time. Whereas earlier trade disputes targeted specific industries, Trump’s recent rhetoric suggests a willingness to impose sweeping, across-the-board tariffs if he perceives an imbalance in trade or energy reliance.
### Energy, Trade, and the Tug-of-War Over Gas
Energy, unsurprisingly, has emerged as a key battlefield in this evolving transatlantic relationship. From the onset, Trump has tied energy policy closely to trade and defense, advocating for Europe to purchase more American liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a means of lessening its reliance on Russian energy exports. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, hinted at such a move shortly after Trump’s election victory, suggesting that buying more U.S. gas could be framed as a gesture of goodwill to stave off retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, she maintained a diplomatic tone, emphasizing Europe’s dual priorities of pragmatic negotiation and protecting its own interests.
“We will always stand by our principles,” von der Leyen said during a speech in Davos, underscoring that Europe would remain resilient in the face of external pressure, even as it sought avenues for compromise. However, this balancing act—the fine line between pragmatism and principles—may become increasingly difficult to sustain if Trump intensifies his demands on European trade policies.
### Learning From the Past, Preparing for the Future
It’s worth noting that this precarious crossroads between Europe and the United States is not an entirely new problem but a more dramatic extension of longstanding challenges. Trump’s policies, while polarizing, are accelerating conversations that many European leaders already believed were overdue. For Ian Lesser, head of the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels office, one silver lining is that Trump’s actions are catalyzing shifts, especially in the realm of defense spending, where Europe has long been viewed as overly reliant on U.S. resources. “The big questions he raises only reinforce existing concerns,” Lesser noted, highlighting that pressure from Washington could galvanize greater European unity and self-reliance.
Still, this evolution is not without risk. Trump’s “America First” ethos often translates into bilateral negotiations that pit individual countries against one another, potentially undermining the very unity that European leaders are striving to maintain. A case in point: Trump’s tendency to favor direct, one-on-one deals with nations like Poland or Hungary could fracture the EU’s collective leverage, delivering favored terms to some while sidelining others.
Yet there’s also a counter-narrative brewing. As François Bayrou, the French prime minister, aptly framed it, “Without Europe, it’s impossible to do it.” His remarks serve as a rallying cry for unity, highlighting an opportunity for Europe to forge a stronger collective identity in the face of external pressure. Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, shared a similar perspective. Sitting in a Davos café, she mused, “The public will see that there is strength in negotiating as a bloc.”
### A Defining Moment for European Unity
The months ahead will test that optimism. Already, signs of a coordinated European response are emerging: on February 3, the European Council—the collective group of leaders from all 27 EU member states—will meet to outline a comprehensive plan for addressing security and trade challenges. Notably, this gathering will include British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, marking the first time a UK leader has engaged with the EU in such a capacity since Brexit. This landmark moment suggests that not even the divisions of recent years can fully withstand the pull of collaboration when larger, existential challenges loom.
Still, the contradictions Europe faces remain stark. There’s genuine fear that the Trump administration’s combative style could disrupt global markets, undercut multilateral trade agreements, and imperil hard-won alliances. Yet there’s also hope that this period of uncertainty will forge stronger bonds across the continent and perhaps even strengthen transatlantic relations as both sides navigate the turbulent waters ahead.
In this complex geopolitical chess game, one thing is abundantly clear: Trump’s return to the White House has set the stage for both tension and opportunity. Conversations in Davos, Brussels, and beyond reflect a Europe caught between trepidation and resolve, aiming to protect its interests while adapting to an unpredictable global landscape. As cheeseburgers on red-and-blue buns are served in Swiss alpine lodges and task forces quietly prepare in Brussels, the question remains: will Europe rise to the occasion and find strength in unity, or will it splinter under the pressure of a second Trump era? Whatever surprises lie ahead, one truth endures: the stakes have never felt higher.
