Trump Signals Progress on US-China Agricultural Trade Deal
President Donald Trump has expressed optimism about an emerging agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping regarding increased purchases of American agricultural products. Following a recent phone call with Xi, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he had asked the Chinese leader to accelerate and expand China’s buying of U.S. farm goods, suggesting that Xi was “more or less agreed” to the request. “I think we will be pleasantly surprised by the actions of President Xi,” Trump remarked, hinting at positive developments that could benefit American farmers who have weathered significant economic challenges during trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
This potential agricultural trade breakthrough comes as welcome news for America’s farming communities, particularly soybean producers who have been caught in the crossfire of the U.S.-China trade disputes. China, which stands as the world’s largest soybean importer, dramatically reduced its purchases of U.S. soybeans in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, forcing American farmers to absorb substantial losses. The October agreement between Trump and Xi during their meeting in South Korea marked an initial step toward normalizing agricultural trade, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later confirming that China is “right on schedule” with its purchase commitments. According to Bessent, China has agreed to buy at least 87.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans over the next three and a half years, signaling a potentially significant recovery for American agricultural exports.
Despite these promising developments, the current reality reflects the lasting impact of trade tensions. Even with the recent agreements, U.S. soybean exports to China this year are projected to reach just 18 million metric tons—a 32 percent decline from the previous year and the weakest performance since 2018. During the trade dispute, China strategically diversified its soybean suppliers, increasing purchases from Brazil (now its top supplier) and Argentina, where prices are often more competitive. Agricultural analysts suggest this shift may be difficult to reverse completely, as China has established new supply chains and trading relationships that could persist even as U.S.-China relations improve. This reality underscores the challenges of restoring market share once trade patterns have been disrupted.
The October deal between the United States and China extended beyond agricultural products, encompassing broader trade and tariff concessions from both nations. President Trump agreed to postpone his threatened 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods and reduce an existing duty on certain fentanyl precursor chemicals from 20 percent to 10 percent. In exchange, China agreed to delay its planned export restrictions on rare earth elements—critical components for defense systems and high-technology industries—for at least one year. These mutual concessions suggest a measured diplomatic approach to easing tensions and preventing further escalation of the trade conflict, while creating space for more comprehensive negotiations.
For Trump, increased Chinese purchasing of U.S. agricultural products carries significant political implications, particularly as he seeks to maintain support in rural America where farmers have faced economic hardship partly due to trade policies. The agricultural sector represents not just an economic interest but a crucial political constituency, especially in key swing states with large farming communities. Trump’s emphasis on securing better terms for American farmers reflects his recognition of their importance both economically and politically. His public statements highlighting progress with China on farm purchases appear designed to reassure this vital base that their interests remain a priority in his administration’s trade strategy.
Looking ahead, both leaders have committed to maintaining high-level diplomatic engagement. Trump has confirmed plans to visit China in April, with Xi expected to make a reciprocal visit to the United States at a later date. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that Xi would attend a G20 meeting in the U.S. next year, and Trump might participate in an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China. These scheduled diplomatic engagements provide structured opportunities to advance trade negotiations and potentially expand agreements beyond agriculture into other sectors of the complex U.S.-China economic relationship. When asked about Xi’s commitment to increasing agricultural purchases, Trump expressed confidence, telling reporters, “I think he’s going to very much surprise you with the upside,” suggesting optimism for meaningful progress in the months ahead.
